jakiro
Source: Waquan Blockchain (ID: HelloBTC)
The stabilization currency track has always been regarded as one of the Holy Grails of the encrypted world. Whether it is Tether’s USDT or Terra’s USS, it has played a pivotal heavyweight player role in the industry.
In the past two months, a rookie project with high yield label has been born.Quickly rise becomes the fifth largest stablecoin in the entire network:On February 19, the USDE publisher Ethena Labs launched the public main network, which aims to create a synthetic US dollar USDE based on Ethereum (ETH).As of the post, the supply has exceeded 2.366 billion pieces, second only to USDT, USDC, DAI, FDUSD.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com
So what kind of stable currency item is USDE, and how can those controversies hidden behind such a short period of time?At the same time, what new variables are the recent stable currency circuit?
01Quickly rising stablecoin USDE
The biggest impact of USDE on the stabilized currency market is undoubtedly launching in just two months. With the attributes of high yields,The overall volume rose rapidly from 0 to over 2.3 billion US dollars.
Ethena Labs official website dataIt shows that as of the post, the annualized return rate of USDE is still as high as 11.6%. Previously, it was maintained at more than 30%. It could not help but remind people of an annualized yield in Anchor Protocol as high as 20%.
Ethena agreed return on return and USDE annualized yield
What kind of stable currency mechanism is USDE, and why does it have such a high annualized income?Behind this is actually the perfect version of Nakamoto’s U.S. dollar concept mentioned in the article “Dust On Crust” as early as “Dust On Crust”.
In short, if the expectation of AirDROP income is expected, there are two main sources of high yields in USDE: there are two main sources of income:
ETH’s LSD pledge income;
Delta’s hedge (that is, the short position of sustainable futures) of the capital rate income;
The former is relatively stable and currently floating around 4%, while the latter depends entirely on market emotions. Therefore, the annualized income of USDE also directly depends on the funding rate (market emotion) of the entire network.
The key to the operation of this mechanism is that it is“Delta neutral strategy”IntersectionIf an investment portfolio is composed of related financial products and its value is not affected by changes in the small price of basic assets, such an investment portfolio has the nature of “Delta”.
In other words, USDE will form “Delta neutral strategy” through the equal amount of spot ETH/BTC multi-head position and futures ETH/BTC short position: the DELTA value of the spot position is 1, and the DELTA value of the futures short position is -1, twoThe Delta value after hedging is 0, that is, “Delta neutral”.
Simple understanding is that when the USDE stable currency module receives user funds and bought ETH/BTC, it will open a short position of equal amounts to keep the value of the USDE’s total position by maintaining value.Ensure that there is no risk of losses in the mortgage position.
Taking the price of BTC as an example of $ 80,000. For example, if a user deposits 1 UBTC, the USDE stable coin module will sell 1 futures BTC at the same time to form a “Delta neutral” investment portfolio of USDE.
For example, we can see:
If BTC was originally $ 80,000, the total value of the combination was 8+0 = 80,000 US dollars, so the total warehouse value is still $ 80,000;
If BTC fell to $ 40,000, the total value of the combination is still 4+4 = 80,000 US dollars, so the total value of the total position is still US $ 80,000 (like the rise);
At the same time, the short position of the futures in the USDE stabilized currency module, because the permanent futures of 1 BTC are open, so you can get the capital rate income of multi -payment (historical retrospect, the capital rate in the history of Bitcoin historyFor the most time, this means that the overall income of the short position will be positive, and this situation is even more emotional in the bull market).
Under the stack of two phases, the annualized return rate of USDE can reach 20%or even higher.It can also be seen that when the market is extremely bullish, the annualized and high returns of USDE are particularly guaranteed -because Ethena Labs uses the opportunity to earn funds to earn funds in the bull market.
02Old Pianshi is it a new solution?
Interestingly, the volume of debate on ENA/USDE in the community has become increasingly louder recently. Many people even use it with the former Terra/LUNA as an analogy.Playing.
In fact, objectively speaking, the first half of the USDE’s stable currency generation/stability mechanism is obviously different from Terra’s gameplay.On the contrary, because it is a trader who harvested all the bull market and paid the funds for this, the high yield is supported, which is also the biggest difference between it and Terra.
It is worth noting that in fact, the second half of Ethena -once the test of anchoring is encountered, it may really take a negative spiral suicide path similar to Luna/USDE, which may generate the possibility of extrusion and accelerating the collapse.
That is to say, there may be a non -linear emotional strange point -the capital rates continue to be negative and continue to pull, and the market has begun to discuss FUD discussions. The USDE yield drops sharply+the anchoring stickers, and the market value plummets (user redemption (user redemption (user redemption (user redemption (user redemptionBack)::
For example, from a range from US $ 10 billion to $ 50 billion, Ethena must have a short position and redeem the mortgage (such as ETH or BTC).The wear, large fluctuations in the market, etc.), the anchor of USDE will be further affected.
Source: Coinglass
This negative feedback mechanism does not rule out that it will be maliciously sniped, which will detonate this strange point, which will face a negative spiral difficulties similar to the UST collapse. Therefore, for investors, this “collapse” will appear, when will it appear?Whether it is time to draw in time is the key to whether the bull market can retreat in the USDE game.
Then you need to keep an eye on Ethena’s ETH and BTC positions that account for the proportion of the entire network, the funds rate of the entire network, etc.It is worth noting that, with the recent large regulation of the market, the funding rates of BTC and ETH have been greatly reduced from an annualization of more than 20%, and even began to have a trend of turning.It is 0.32%.
The data of Ethena Labs official website shows that the total value of USDE’s Bitcoin mortgage assets exceeds US $ 800 million, Ethereum has a position of over 1 billion US dollars, accounting for nearly 80 %.
Because Ethena is actually a cryptocurrency trader who harvested all the bull market and paid funds for this, the high yield relies on the positive funding rate behind the market emotions.From this perspective, if the funding rate of the entire network continues to negative or even increases, the USDE is likely to face a test of sharp reduction in yields.
03The stabilization currency track is this long
Pulling the perspective back to the macro, the stable currency track has always been a super large cake.In the horizontal contrast, the attributes of a header player like Tether are even less than CEX:
Tether generated a net income of about $ 6.2 billion in 2023, 78% of Goldman Sachs ($ 7.9 billion) and 72% of Morgan Stanley ($ 8.5 billion), while Tether had about 100 employees, while the latter was the latter, while the latter was the latter.There are 49,000 employees and 82,000 employees.
As of December 31, 2023, the net income, total number of employees, and employee income of major companies, Source: @Teddyfuse
Tether is currently the most profitable encryption company except the trading platform (CEX may only have Binance that can be stabilized).
For WEB3 projects and encryption companies that generally belong to “losses” operations and sell token subsidies, it is also expected and unacceptable. This is one of the main reasons why stable currency business is so attractive.
According to Coingecko data, among the top 5 stablecoin players, the current total USDT circulation has exceeded 109 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for about 69%of the total stable currency on the entire network.
In addition to a unique USDT, since the US regulatory agency closes to the Silicon Valley Bank on March 10, 2023, the net outflow of USDC has exceeded 112 billion US dollars, and the total flow has dropped to about 33 billion US dollars, the decrease of about 30%, temporarily temporarily.Living second, and the third place in DAI ($ 5 billion) is a fault -type lead.
In addition, BUSD has been replaced by FUSD by regulatory pressure, accompanied by Binance to speed up the frequency of LaunchPoll, and the total amount quickly exceeds 3.5 billion US dollars; then it is the emergence of the emergence of the army, bringing a new variable worth looking forward to.
In general, in the context of decentralized stabilization currency elimination consideration and centralized stablecoin facing the background of “reserves+supervision”, decentralized stablecoins have become the largest market for the “Holy Grail” of the market in the industry.It is expected that the USDE with high yields can rise rapidly.
And at present, we are only in the early stages of the long -term competition of stable coins. The arrival of new players such as FDUSD and USDE is likely to change the competition pattern and bring a new variable to the stablecoin market, which is worth looking forward to.
