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Author: Majed Twijiri, Amber Labs Researcher Source: Amber Labs Substack, Translation: Bit Chain Vision Xiaozou
1,summary
TON is a proof of equity proof of the blockchain, which indirectly supports the Telegram Inc through the TON Foundation.It expands horizontally through a mode called Infinite Dynamic Sharding, managed in the test environment, and obtained more than 100K TPS (Sorana 60K TPS).We believe that the native token of the chain is currently undervalued, the reasons are as follows:
· The supply concentration and scarce value are a relatively lack of L1.
· Clear listing strategy and first -class distribution channels.
· Given the current KPI situation, there is huge room for growth.
· Visible Crypto specific catalytic factor.
2As well asTonOverview
(1.TonChain history
Ton was previously named Telegram Open Network, and its root can be traced back to 2018. At that time, the founder of Telegram’s founder Pavel and Nikolai Durov began the exploration of the blockchain solution of the Telegram Messenger.That year, they raised a total of 1.7 billion US dollars of funds through the ICO of the TON token (previous Grams), and then released the Ton white paper shortly afterwards, and released the first TON test network in the spring of 2019.After experiencing a series of regulatory challenges (the end is that the US Securities and Exchange Commission sued Telegram for unregistered securities issuance in October 2019), Telegram agreed to refund the funds raised from investors and before May 2020Pay a settlement of $ 18.5 million.
Although the Telegram team stopped the development activity on the chain on the surface, a new group of new developers named Newton (later renamed Ton Foundation) gathered around the project, continued to develop, focus on loyalty to the white paper,The design principle is the “blockchain blockchain” structure.At the same time, as of June 2020, all available TON tokens can be mining through the “GIVER” smart contract of the use of the workload certificate (POW) system. The CPU mining continues from 2020 to 2022.We noticed that although this distribution method aims to promote decentralization development and improve fairness, the research structure clearly shows that a large part of the supply is dug out by the address of the insider or related to the TON Foundation.Only 248 closely related addresses were dug 85%tokens within 2 months (July to August 2020).
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So far, the TON Foundation has deeply affected the price of TON token, which is essential to the success of the project.Since the establishment of the foundation, its source of funds not only comes from the original mining activities, but also from off -site transactions that have recently locked to professional investors.In order to stabilize its strategic direction, the TON Foundation announced in September 2023 that it established a partnership with Telegram. Telegram was led by the core team led by Anatoliy Makosov.The conclusion of this cooperative relationship marks a key step towards the continuous development and market positioning in the wider range of encryption fields, and strengthened Ton’s reason for bullishness, providing the core of effective impact and increasing consistent consistency of token prices.Driving force.
(2) Current ecological system status
TON is currently composed of four main parts, namely: Ton Blockchain, Ton Payments, Ton Proxy, and Ton Storage (decentralized storage).Ton Blockchain is a general blockchain, which contains a standard execution layer that allows non -transaction.Ton Payments is a minimum platform micro -payment channel that allows instant fast payment between peers.It can currently access through Wallet Bot on Telegram, which thank you for the convenience in the application.Ton Storage supports and distributes files on TON, similar to a decentralized Dropbox.Finally, Ton Proxy is allowed to ensure anti -examination by allowing users to run by fixed IP/centralized domain names.All these four components have a rich roadmap, which can ensure that the future cross compatibility and connection can be well ensured.
In recent weeks, as the Ton Foundation, Telegram and partners have worked hard to promote the development of the ecosystem on the chain, the Ton chain witnessed the Cambrian -style chain event.The most notable thing is that we saw that Tether announced in April the internal directional integration with TON to support the native redemption of tokens, which allowed deeper Dex liquidity and more capital inflows.The TON Foundation is still running various liquidity mining incentives, such as 11 million TON (about 50 million US dollars) specified for DEFI LP.In addition to incentive measures specific to Defi, the foundation is still running a wider range of incentive plans, with a total of over 30 million TONs.As a result, TONL, which was priced at TON, was exploding. It reached 30 million in April 2024, an increase of 6 times from the beginning of the year (see the figure below).We did notice that Defi TVL is generally quite profitable. Once the reward in June 2024 is completed, some capital may be lost.
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Given that DEFI liquidity mining is ultimately a solution game, and many iterations have appeared in the previous ALT-L1. We believe that the real value of these incentive measures is that Telegram can motivate APP users to interact with TON interaction.Raiders of orthodox.The current award plan is to reward projects that attract users through the viral game mechanism, such as games promoted by Notcoin (a simple but addictive clicks of clicks, and more than 3.5 million daily live users).After that, it is the reward of completing the internal tasks (such as NFT and DNS domain name casting), and finally the liquidity mining of the largest DEX on the Ton mentioned earlier.The ultimate goal is to use Ton’s available distribution channels at any time to slowly and gradually introduce and gradually introduce to the working process on the chain and retain the attracted Telegram audience.
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This effort has led to an increase in blockchain activities on all indicators, as follows (see the figure below):
· The transaction volume has increased10Beeming: Since March 2024, the transaction volume has been between 2 million and 4 million per day, which is higher than 200,000 per day last year.
· The number of wallets activated on the chain increased3.6Perm: from 600,000 addresses in January 2024 to 3.5 million at the end of April 2024.
· Daily Living Wallet (DAW) The number increases to six digits: from 30,000 to 160,000 from the beginning of this year.
InTonThe daily fee is on5Ten dollars25Between 10,000 US dollars: half of TON cost is BURN.
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Although these numbers rising itself may indicate the participation of non -organic and non -viscosity chains, it is not large (compared with AVAX’s 2021 incentive plan) for an incentive reward plan (compared with AVAX’s 180 million US dollars),Such a rapid growth is worthy of attention, whether or not it should monitor the sustainable situation of this activity and TVL after the reward period.
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3Overview of token economics
The basis of this point of view lies in a sound token economics characteristics.Although the valuation is relatively high, the market value of US $ 24 billion FDV and 16 billion US dollars, the large amount of supply, verifying the low inflation rate of the network by the TON Foundation and its affiliated companies, and the supply of supply to investorsOutside -off sales are good.
The current total supply is 5,105,734,318 (5 billion pieces were issued at the tokens), and the initial distribution of 85%of the tokens facing users and 5%distributed to the verifications.The chain expands at a rate of 0.6%per year, and pays the authentica to maintain consensus.Looking at it further, we noticed that about 1.3 billion tokens were locked in the Locker Smart Contract (called Believers Fund), and more than 20%of TON supply was locked.Monthly distribution within 3 years.The total amount of distribution includes about 1 billion TON locked by users and 284 million donations donated to the incentive plan.
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In addition to the Locker contract, the TON Foundation also locked about 1.1 billion Ton held by large early miners’ wallets. These wallets have not been traded in 48 months.As a result of these two measures, about 47%(2.4 billion tokens) Ton supply will disappear from circulation in the foreseeable future.Therefore, the market value of effective circulation is about $ 8.5 billion.
On the other hand, the number of lock -up OTC tokens that have been sold is much more difficult to valuation in the US dollar. However, according to the announcement judgment, it seems that at least $ 30 million tokens have been sold to venture capital companies and professional investors.The
· Mexc Ventures made a “eight -digit” investment in TON in October 2023.
· In November 2023, Animoca Brands invested in Ton Network and became the biggest verifier.
· Mirana Ventures invested 8 million US dollars in March 2024 to support TON token.
Given that TON is still in the early stage, the value accumulation of the token is still a bit weak.However, as the chain activity continues to grow through the BURN mechanism (50%TON cost will be BURN), the situation should improve.
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More importantly, Telegram is actively developing the practical function of TON token to increase its value.For example, Telegram recently announced that it will use TON tokens for advertising.That is, advertisers need to use TON to fund their marketing activities, and their income will be divided between Telegram and content creators.In addition, Telegram has begun to accept TON for Ton for Telegram Premium (Telegram Premium) through Flegram Premium.These measures show that the Telegram team’s efforts have been carefully considered to ensure that TON is still a tokens with practical value and have a clear value -added mechanism directly related to the Telegram service.
4The basic principle of investment
(1) Supply concentration and lack of holdingL1
0.6%of the moderate low inflation rate (below Bitcoin) per year, given that about 50%of the supply is locked in Believers Fund and non -active miners’ wallets, plus about 86%of the dug tokens were ton TonFoundation’s control, or to a certain extent, is affiliated with the TON Foundation, so the mid -term floating is relatively low.
In addition, most of the attention and OTC locking tokens are done by Asian participants, which shows that EU/American participants are watching (see the accumulated futures return on the figure below).
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The sharp rise in the past two months is mainly promoted in Asia
From a technical point of view, the current trading price of the token is between 2-3 times the low point of this year and 2023.Compared with SOL, Avax, NEAR, etc., the token increase is quite small, making the downlink risk more significantly smaller.
(2) Clear listing strategy and long -term vision
A magnificent vision is that you can easily create or compete with WeChat on your own mobile phone.This vision indicates that a large number of encrypted blockchain and DAPP serve the status quo of the speculators and skilled technologies have undergone a fundamental change. In essence, they are a much smaller TAM, so the valuation should be lower.EssenceTether provides soft support through its integration announcement. Of course, Telegram also provides practical support. Whether it is Ton Blockchain, Ton Proxy, Ton Payments, or Ton Storage, there are strong and reliable roadmaps.
(3) Great growth opportunities
Given that there are currently about 3.5 million activated wallets on the chain, and the number of monthly living users (MAU) of Telegram is 800 million, it is expected to reach 1.5 billion in the next five years. It can be said that TON’s growth potential is quite large.This represents a huge total of a large total addressable market (TAM).The strategic goal of the TON Foundation is to convert the monthly living users of Telegram 30%in the next 3-5 years.If Telegram can successfully convert 0.2%of its 200 million daily use households, it will exceed the current number of daily live users of about 400,000 in Ethereum.Obviously, this is a huge opportunity to expand the user base.
(4.CryptoSpecific factor
In recent months, TON’s daily transaction volume exceeds 170 million US dollars. The listing of Binance’s spot may greatly reduce investment risks and provide certain operational force and more downlink protection with increased liquidity.
(5) Risk and measures to reduce risk
Can this project maintain the current valuation?This is an ambitious project, which can almost be said to be fully valued.Under such circumstances, the chain and native GAS tokens should play a currency role, not a tool for technical speculation.The currency premium is more difficult to obtain than the technical premium, because it is shorter in nature.
· Details about Ton -on -field transactions need to be further discussed, because capital that may become marginal price makers will choose to buy discount OTC tokens to reduce the pressure on the purchase of the open market.
· Supply unlock, Believers Fund will be unlocked in October 2025, with a distribution period of three years.
· Regulatory risk is still a factor.However, we believe that, in view of the multiple contests and running -in with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before, regulatory risks have been greatly reduced.Telegram obviously hopes to integrate the tokens into the platform. We have reason to think that Telegram has conducted a thorough legal investigation to ensure that their current and future TON business complies with necessary laws and regulations.
5,Summarize
We believe that most of Ton’s growth will not come from users on the existing chain of EVM and RUST blockchain.TON is opening up a more vertical future to open up its own consumer ecological market. These consumers attach importance to super fast and convenient decentralized solutions, and give priority to new blockchain with freedom of capital circulation and anti -censorship.In the long run, the comparable value of TON is a $ 90 billion BNB. Considering the above investment advantage, this is a reasonable realistic goal, providing obvious room for upward and beyond BTC performance.
