jakiro
Author: Wayne_zhang, web3caff senior researcher source: substack
Foreword
Eigenlayer opened the airdrop collection, which further ignited the currency issuance of the LRT track.The projects that have now issued coins include Renzo, Ether.Fi and other projects. They have completely diluted the market value of more than 1 billion US dollars, and all of them are launched on first -line exchanges such as Binance and OKX.The market has a certain preliminary anchor for other LRT track projects for new projects and project valuation logic.
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The LRT project FDV data that has been launched, source: Coingecko
Valuation calculation
Today, it mainly explores a potential arbitrage opportunity for EIGENPIE.
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Twitter screenshot
Ether.fi and Renzo, which have issued coins, are ranked among the top two according to LRT supply.According to the ratio of TVL and FDV, the reasonable valuation of EIGENPIE should be:
FDV (eigenpie) = 801.21m / 3.93b * 3.58B = $ 729.855 m
FDV (eigenpie) = 801.21m / 3b * 1.40B = $ 373.898 m
The ATH FDV of the two projects is 8.53B and 2.78B, respectively. Then, the token high of the EIGENPIE project should be:
FDV ATH (eigenpie) = 729.855m * 8.53b / 3.58B = $ 1739.012 m
FDV ATH (eigenpie) = 373.898 m * 2.78B / 1.40B = $ 742.4546 m
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In addition to the valuation of the track, we can also take a look at the valuation of several products released by the Magpie behind the EIGENPIE team:
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Magpie’s incubation project TVL data
According to the TVL/FDV ratio, the minimum valuation and maximum valuation of the EIGENPIE of $ 801M TVL are:
801/169.26*24.9 = $ 117.836m (Penpie FDV is estimated)
801/37.08*68.2 = $ 1473.252 m (Cakepie FDV is estimated)
The maximum value is: 801/37.08*130 = $ 2808.252m (Cakepie FDV ATH estimation)
In Twitter, I also brushed a saying that the valuation of the track was valued according to the EIGENLAYER valuation, and then the value of the participants was estimated according to the market share.According to data from AEVO on May 12, the price of EIGEN is $ 7.54, and the current Eigenlayer FDV should theoretically reach US $ 12.6144.2 billion, EIGENLAYER TVL is 14.929B, Eigenpie is based on the market share: 801/1000/1000/1000/1000/1000/1000/1000/1000/1000/100014.929*126.1442 = 670 million US dollars.($ 670M)
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Source: AEVO
summary
We can get a few data:
1. According to the market data of the release project, the FDV interval obtained by the comparison of TVL is:
$ 373.898 m -$ 1739.012 m
(It should be noted that Etherfi’s FDV ATH is to a certain extent because it belongs to the launch of the launch on the track and occupies the premium income, so the reference value is not great. I personally think that the market performance of Renzo has more reference value)
2. Based on the SubDao incubated by Magpie, the FDV range should be:$ 117.836m -$ 2808.252m
3. According to market share estimated, the FDV is about$ 670M
Which of these data do you choose?Seeing the wisdom of the benevolent and wisdom, considering the existence of the market bubble and the operating experience of MAGPIE, I personally chose$ 500MThe next strategy valuation is calculated.
Arbitrage
High -quality fundamental project -Magpie of High “Municipal Power Bate” Magpie
The business model adopted by the incubator Magpie behind Eigenpie is Subdao. Friends who do not know Subdao can click to read the subdao research report I wrote.
In this mode, MAGPIE can have a certain number of token of SubDao. According to the principle of distribution, the Magpie community will take 15%of EGP token. It is expected$ 2 m RADPIE Token and Cakepie Token with current value of $ 10.23 m. Among them, Campie and Listapie have not issued token, so asset angles, Magpie will have about 92.21m token assets after EIGENPIE issuance.
andThe FDV of the current MAGPIE is only $ 70M
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The reason for time, there is also a SubDao for Lista Dao, not included
EIGENPIE IDO quota acquisition
Referring to various SUBDAO listing cases previously incubated by Magpie, you can find that there is an opportunity to destroy Magpie token to get the quota on RADPIE.The core strategy of this article is based on this mechanism—— The higher the proportion of the destroyed MGP/VLMGP number, the higher the IDO limit.
According to EGP token economics of EIGENPIE, EIGENPIE stated that it will introduce EGP tokens through fairly, without VC or pre -sale activities.The team officially abandon the tokens and distributes 15% EGP token to Magpie Treasury.
IDO accounts for 40%of the total amount of Token. The acquisition method of these quotas can be obtained by 10%by destroying in RADPIE. Assuming that this ratio is still this ratio, the destruction quota will be 4%of the total tokens. According to the previous assumptions, the previous assumptions will beThe valuation is 4% * $ 500M = 20 m.However, according to EIGENPIE Twitter, the IDO valuation of Eigenpie is 3M. Calculating calculations, these 4%token share users need to pay $ 120,000 in addition to MGP costs.
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Eigenpie twitter
The $ 120,000 IDO purchase cost has been clear, so what is the cost of destruction?
Dune magician@/Beacon_early produced a Dune panel. The existing MGP circulation is 378.573m (the total is 1B).The total amount is 55.244 (BNB chain) +98.938 (Arbitrum) = 154.182m.Because these VLMGPs are obtained by 1: 1 pledged by MGP, the number of VLMGP is actually included in the circulation:
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Source: dune dashboard
Therefore, the actual market can only be less than 400m with MGP and VLMGP, so how many MGPs will be destroyed and transformed into IDO quotas?
Based on the number of 378.57m, if all destroyed, the EGP limit for the destruction quantity of $ 20M is 20m, then the value of each MGP corresponding EGP value is $ 0.052.All destruction is obviously unrealistic.How much Magpie should be destroyed?
I personally think that it is about 25%. The main reason is the dynamic balance of price and demand and MGP liquidity requirements, which means that the value of EGP corresponding to a single MGP is about $ 0.2.
Now the price of MGP is only $ 0.07, and the expected profit margin can reach 185%.
These calculations are actually based on some assumptions. I have summarized a formula. You can calculate the arbitrage space according to your judgment:
EGP value / mgp current price of profit margin = MGP
The expected FDV * 40% * token destruction of the occupied IDO quota that is destroyed by the MGP value = mgp value = MGP value / expected MGP destruction quantity.
risk
Of course, there are risks of this set of solutions:
1. MAGPIE will not place MGP destruction quota (key factors) in the IDO (key factor)
2. The proportion of mgp to destroy in the IDO is extremely low (personal computing is not less than 3%, but it will not lose)
3. Magpie’s FDV is extremely low. Since the LRT track opportunity is to be on the same period of the same cycle, the FDV is expected to be reduced a lot when the market liquidity is insufficient.
4. The unlocking period of EGP will be similar to Penpie /Cakepie, etc., which will bring liquidity risk and unpredictable price risk.(Several other subdao are unlock 30%)
5. Smart contract issues, team problems and other systemic risks.
Conclusion
I personally appreciate the execution of the MAGPIE team. It is worthy of praise for the team that can persist in the bear market and has an innovative in the bull market, but it does not have the launch of the exchanges. The low attention has also made me worry about its operating ability.However, in general, I think the potential rate of this strategy is high. Even if it is not destroyed in the later period, holding ParentDao Token for pledge or waiting for the secondary opportunity is more cost -effective.
As for whether MAGPIE decides to distribute the quota by destroying the MGP, I personally think that if the team wants to make Parent Dao have greater popularity and community support, it should give MGP holders a certain right.The equity is allocated to VLMGP holders.The author asked the administrator in the community and did not get a clear answer yet. Interested friends can follow my Twitter or subscribe to the column. I will update new news.
