jakiro
Author: Kyle Source: @0xKyle’s Research Translation: Shan Oppa, Bitchain Vision
While it is difficult to predict the future, as traders and investors, we need to have a plan.Like all plans, this plan adjusts as the basic situation of the market changes – the market is an evolving “biology”.This memorandum is just my idea of the direction of market development in 2025, based on our position today.This is an entry point for my thinking about 2025 and should not be considered financial advice.
Let’s first review my plan for 2024.
2024 plan review
Oh my God, I made a lot of mistakes in my plan for 2024; let’s look at the predictions item by item:
1. Bitcoin halving is an irrelevant event
I remember many people are discussing this issue – is the halving “benefits are fulfilled, and the negatives are exhausted”?Although it is usually “buy news” in history, the final result is just an ordinary event that marks the beginning of a bull market.
2. Rate cuts are negative
This is obviously wrong, but I have to defend myself – I have changed that position in public before the rate cut.The initial assumption was that “inflation is stubborn, and interest rate cuts will occur after a significant deterioration in economic data, so it is a passive response rather than a preventive measure.”
But it turns out that the Fed broke this assumption.The correct attitude in 2024 is: to act directly according to the Fed’s statement.
3. Scenario Planning
The core of my 2024 plan is: “Put a certain percentage of risk control on the portfolio before the rate cut, and then buy back when the price is lower while retaining the remaining position.”
I had no idea what I was talking about because I didn’t do these operations at all.
Ultimately, the market in 2024 is a completely different “monster” – the market experienced a preliminary sell-off after the launch of the ETF, then rose in the first quarter, followed by a dull summer period, and the rate cuts have a stimulating effect on the stock market, butThe crypto market is still hovering in the range of $50,000-$60,000, and it wasn’t the final election that became the real blowout point.
My biggest mistake was not emphasizing that 2024 is a year when Bitcoin gradually penetrates into traditional institutions.What am I thinking?This may be the most important thing in 2024 – Bitcoin has gradually been accepted by the traditional financial field.
4. The market narrative I mentioned:
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ETF Beneficiaries: COIN (Stock)/BTC/ETH
I also mentioned tokens like STX and TRAC, but they didn’t perform well.COIN is a great choice though.When I was writing, it was about $120.
The short-term narrative of BRC-20 and LST has not lasted for too long, but it is indeed a good trading opportunity in the first quarter of 2024.
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SOL
When writing an article, the SOL price is $60!Oh my god, this is one of my most proud deals – I originally wrote this prediction at $20.The title is even a bit funny: “SOL will reach three digits in the next cycle.” The result is completely fulfilled.
But the TIA/Aptos/Layer 2 related narratives have performed poorly for most of 2024.
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Regulation and product market compatibility
This narrative direction is right, but the token chosen is completely wrong.My thought at the time was: “DeFi projects that can pass the regulatory test, but have not yet shown a clear market fit.”
What am I thinking?I chose MMX and dYdX.
I also mentioned HYPERLIQUID.I really hoped that I followed my advice and participated in mining more.Although I was one of the early users of HYPERLIQUID, I didn’t realize its importance until it was too late.
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Decentralized AI
This is really complicated.I used to be very optimistic on this track, but turned extremely bearish at the top of the market in the first quarter of 2024 because I found that the actual product was completely different from what I thought it would be.Projects like Render and Akash have few practical use cases and look more like air projects.Although I am very interested in AI narrative now, I did feel it was false at the time.
TAO was $300 when she was writing, but now it’s about doubled?Forget it, OLAS, I don’t want to mention it more.
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GameFi 2.0
This direction is good.This is a money-making transaction I made in 2024.There is a small window in the first quarter of 2024, with BEAM prices rising sharply, and many GameFi-related assets performing well (such as Pirate NFT).Prime is also a good choice.
Of course, you have to sell it on the top, otherwise you have lost a lot now.I didn’t sell much, but overall, the deal was profitable.
Popular Choices:Overworld / Treeverse / Prime / L3E7 – Overworld tokens rose from 5ETH to 15ETH, Treeverse plots rose from 0.2ETH to 1ETH, and L3E7 rose from 3ETH to 14ETH (but I lost again later).
BLUR’s related narrative performance is average.
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Other potential narratives:
•dePIN/RWAs
•deSci
•Meme Coin (BONK/DOGE/PEPE/HPOS10INU)
•RUNE / CACAO
•GambleFi
•Airdrop (LayerZero/Starknet/ZKSync)
There aren’t many highlights here, except for meme coins – they did explode in the first quarter of 2024.Bonk has increased two to three times since I wrote it.dePIN (like Geodenet/Helium) also received brief highlights, but I didn’t pay much attention.DeSci became popular a few months ago, especially after BIO went online to Binance… but to be honest, I don’t like this track.
5. Top of the cycle
I wrote at the end of the article: “There is one thing I haven’t talked about yet, and that’s how I think this cycle will end – lately, I’ve become increasingly aligned with GCR’s point of view: ‘The culmination of the last cycle was fund entry,The culmination of the next cycle is when the country starts buying. ‘”
Looking back now, I have a hindsight – Oh my God, I think I want to directly write this view into my plan for 2025.This is definitely an important part of my listing of “Top Signals of the Cycle” and it makes a lot of sense.
2025 plan
Now that the review for 2024 has been completed, let’s get to the point.As usual, I will talk about macro and scenario planning first, and then thematic narrative.
Scenario Planning
The 2024-?? cycle has begun.I think the cycle starts at the end of 2023, but it’s just a matter of detail.The cycles so far are:
•January 10——Bitcoin ETF launches
• Bitcoin then hit a record high, triggering altcoin season (altszn)
• Market fluctuated in the second and third quarters of 2024, with Bitcoin fluctuating between $50,000 and $60,000
• The election broke through a record high on the day of the election, soaring all the way to $100,000 but failed to break through and then fluctuated around $90,000
It should be noted that the altcoin season or “good times” begins with the rise of Bitcoin. The first stage is that Bitcoin rises to $69,000 but fails to break through, and the second stage is to rush to $100,000.
The next altcoin cycle may begin when Bitcoin firmly breaks through $100,000.I don’t have a crystal ball, and while I hope this is what happened in the first quarter of 2025, the reality may be that the volatile periods of 2024 will be repeated in the next few months – I have to be prepared.So, I listed the following scenarios:
Scenario 1: Bitcoin and altcoins both rise
It continues to rise in 2025, and we usher in another round of altcoin season. Bitcoin continues to rise, all tokens perform well, and the market returns to the grand occasion of “10,000 coins rising together” in the past two months.
Probability: 30-40%
Coping strategy: Buy on dips (BTFD), focusing on strong altcoins.
Scenario 2: Bitcoin rises, altcoins rise less
The market repeats itself in 2024. Altcoins are rising and falling in the next few months and have a large fluctuation; but the overall market is more optimistic than in 2024 (because Bitcoin continues to rise), and some areas have performed well.
Probability: 50-60%
Coping strategy: Buy selected altcoins on dips, avoid areas of over-focusing, and find the next hot spots in the market.
Scenario 3: Bitcoin rises, altcoins fall
Bitcoin continues to strengthen, but altcoins generally decline, and the market ushers in the top of altcoins.
Probability: 20-30%
Coping strategy: Sell all altcoins.If the altcoins no longer rise, they may need to clear all positions, even if it means taking some losses.
Scenario 4: Bitcoin and altcoins both fall
The market peaked as a whole, and everything fell.
Probability: 10-20%
I believe that Bitcoin’s breakthrough of all-time highs in 2025 will not be as slow as in 2024, because the macro background is already in place.Bitcoin ETFs have just been launched in the summer of 2024, and traditional financial institutions (TradFi) are still selling Bitcoin to customers.More importantly, the world had not fully recognized the importance of Bitcoin at that time.
But now the situation is different.Trump has returned to power and even reported that he has established a strategic Bitcoin reserve (SBR), and the market narrative has changed.I won’t guess the actual probability of SBR – I have no experience in the field of politics and finance.
I’m focusing on narrative.The fact is that the current new administration is pushing more attention in the digital asset field, and now the US president talks about bitcoin frequently, which makes it easier for people to buy bitcoin than in the past.
This regime change is an extremely important market signal.Therefore, I believe Bitcoin will continue to benefit from the macro tailwind in 2025.In terms of altcoins, the situation is similar but slightly different.
In the first quarter of 2024, the total market value (Total3) hit a historical high in 2021, and reached a cyclical high again in the fourth quarter of 2024.The market basically follows a similar model, so I thinkThe difference between scenario 1 and scenario 2 is not large.
The key isPosition management and timing.I am optimistic about 2025, but I am not sure about the specific time of the rise.I think the market’s “only rise but not fall” stage will arrive earlier than in 2024, but altcoins may still fall without catalysts.
As long as the cycle does not peak, I will maintain a net long position, whether it is Bitcoin or other assets.I don’t think the summer of 2024 will repeat in 2025, but the market may still experience a similar downturn – prices remain stable, but the market lacks obvious catalysts.
On-chain assets are different from mainstream markets. On-chain assets tend to fall 70% when the market falls.Therefore, the goal is always to sell when the chain is at its highest attention, return to mainstream altcoins (top 20), and then gradually reinvest in.
I don’t think altcoins will peak at the moment because I can’t imagine Bitcoin continuing to rise while altcoins plummet.It is unlikely that Bitcoin will peak at this time.
Summarize
• Bitcoin continues to rise, with growth exceeding 2024
• Altcoin – Keep offensive and know when to switch to defense, but the defense is less than in 2024
risk
1. Cycle top risk
The top of the cycle is often a self-fulfilling prophecy.While I don’t think we’re close to the top of the cycle right now, this requires a weekly ongoing assessment.The top of the cycle is not necessarily a clear “event”, but more like a process that gradually approaches over time.
2. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) Risk
As the new president takes office, everyone will pay attention to his movements.Although Bitcoin faces positive factors, it is undoubtedly a negative signal if the president completely ignores Bitcoin.Personally, the biggest risk is that SBR may be forgotten, or more likely, SBR will not implement at all and instead take other measures.
If the latter situation occurs (i.e., different policies replace SBR), it may be negative in the short term, but as long as the new policy is friendly to bitcoin, it will still be positive in the end.
in short:
•Positive signal = cycle continues
•Negative signal = Revision plan is required, the cycle may continue, but the possibility is low.
3. Supply risk
In the summer of 2024, we experienced an extreme macro environment and the stock market hit new highs again and again.However, we did not enjoy similar gains in the crypto market, but instead endured it fromMt. Gox, the German government and Grayscale GBTCThe heavy pressure of large-scale selling.
Supply risks cannot be avoided.There are always institutions or governments who hold a large amount of Bitcoin—the British government, the Silk Road, the FTX debt distribution, etc.These events require constant attention, but if everything goes well in the market, such events are usually a good opportunity to buy on dips.
4. Macro risks
Although the rate cut is small, the rate cut is still a rate cut.AlthoughLow stimulation, but as long as interest rates continue to fall, liquidity will improve.
•Positive signal = cycle continues
• As long as interest rates are not raised or interest rate cuts are stopped, the macro environment is good for digital assets.
The real negative signal is the comeback of inflation and the Federal Reserve is forced to raise interest rates to curb inflation.
Topics and tokens
Now we enter the part that everyone is most interested in.But before introducing it, I want to emphasize again-“Keep offense, but know when to switch to defense.”During this cycle,Actively managing portfolios will perform far better than passive holdings.
The past era of “buy and hold always rise” has ended.
In 2024, Solana’s performance is on par with Bitcoin, although it soared 10 times in 2023.TAOPopular tokens like this have not enjoyed the dividends of the recent AI wave.The meme coin craze is also fading – Dogecoin (DOGE) loses its hat, the little chill guy is no longer calm, and the hippo (PEPE) seems to be out of his way.
There is most likely none of the tokens on this list that will allow you to “buy and hold”.
It is important to consider who is the potential buyer.There are three main types of marginal buyers in the crypto market:
1.Institutional Investors (TradFi)
2.Funds (cryptographically native or liquid capital)
3.Speculators (perpetual contract traders, on-chain players, etc.)
To become a market hotspot, a narrative must at least attract one of the types of buyers.
1. Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Yes, this track is still there.But as the tweet shows, we have experienced several AI booms.If you have read my analysis of AI tokens, I believeA new wave of craze is coming.
•Macro path: Hype → Infrastructure → Practical Application
•Micro path: Retail investors follow the trend → Basic layer (infra) → Application and virtual people
Holding is not going to bring good results.Goat, the leader of AI tokens, has already pulled back 60% from its highs and is likely to continue to underperform the market.
Recommended tokens:
•Application layer technology / group intelligence / gaming / consumer-oriented AI projects
•ALCH(Game Development),Griffain(Smart Wallet Agent),Digimon,Ai16zAll are projects I am optimistic about.There are many tokens worth paying attention to, but these are the key points.
2. DeFi
There is no need to say much about this.DeFi is still a good track, but it is extremely difficult to invest, and there are very few tokens that can really benefit.Even if they benefit, they may not rise (look at the LST track).
Not high risk-reward ratio, but I think the DeFi track will continue to grow in 2025.
Recommended tokens:AAVE/ENA/Morpho/Euler/USUAL
Sub-line: Stablecoins / Payment tokens
3. Layer 1 Public Chain Track
I know this may cause controversy, but I believe that the L1 public chain transaction will return significantly again.Sui has risen from $1 to $2 and now it has risen to $4, although the market is negative about it.But this is exactly what the market ignores, and it often contains huge opportunities (Hype is 10 times more).
Recommended tokens:SUI/Hype
Sub-line: Abstract
I’m not very interested in Monad and Berachain, but I’m very much looking forward to Abstract, which may be a hit.
4. NFT Token & Game Coin (Second Round)
I really like this track.I’ve bought some gaming projects recently and I think the NFT token track is worth paying attention to.PenguRe-rise,AzukiThe $ANIME token was launched.DoodlesI’m doing something, too.I don’t think NFT itself will return, butNFT tokens will perform.
Game tokens are also fun, and Off-The-Grid proves that it is possible to develop an interesting game.Since the market’s attitude towards game coins is very negative, this is a good time to dig deeper and find truly fun game projects and their tokens.
Recommended tokens: Pengu/ANIME (Azuki)/Spellborne/Treeverse
Sub-line: Prime / Off-The-Grid (if tokens are launched) / Overworld
5. Other narratives
These tracks are not a favorite on my observation list, but interesting:
•Data Tokens: Kaito/Arkm
•Meme Coin: I only look forward to PEPE, and the rest of the feeling is cold
•DePIN: PEAQ / HNT
•Inscriptions (Ordinals)
•Old leader:XRP, etc.
•Old DeFi: CRV/CVX
2025 forecast
This part is purely entertainment, all of which are thoughts that sound a bit outrageous but not completely impossible.
•DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network)It was officially implemented by a formal large company, and it may even be achieved through acquisition.
•Binance loses its leading position in exchange, not being surpassed by Hyperliquid, but being promoted by Bybit or OKX.
•Metauniverse tokens resurrected, because VR technology has made breakthroughs.
•ICO makes a comeback, again prevailed.
•On-Chain Szn will not happen.
•Sui breaks through double digits (at least $10).
•Ethereum pledge proceeds have been approved to be included in the ETF.Recruiting more pledged earning products for other tokens, earnings aggregators will also become popular again, just like in 2021.
• SomeoneTop ArtistsUse NFTs and tokens to interact with fans, track and reward fan groups.
•Bitcoin rose to $200,000.
• Multiple L1 public chain projectsCEO/founder resigns one after another, similar to Aptos phenomenon.
•Base loses its on-chain competitive advantage.Another L1 public chain replaced it, while Solana continued to lead.
Conclusion
This article roughly summarizes my market layout for 2025.As with the 2024 plan, I expect many of these views and strategies to adjust significantly.
The most important advice here is: stay flexible, like water, and enjoy the market journey.The market will continue to change, and that’s part of the game.As the famous saying:
“A person can never step into the same river twice, because the river is no longer the river of yesterday, and people are no longer the person of yesterday.”
I wish you good luck and a smooth journey.Hope to see you in the next cycle.If you make life-changing profits on the way, remember-Let it really change your life.
