jakiro
Author: blofin Source: Medium Translation: Shan Ouba, Bitchain Vision Realm
Rising global uncertainty is one of the main reasons for the continuous improvement of the current level of liquidity in the crypto market, and it is also an important reason for the recent strong performance of BTC.
Due to the lack of risk aversion attributes, the performance of non -BTC cryptocurrencies depends more on the changes in macro -liquidity and the game of funds on the venue.
Congzhan coins have achieved certain advantages in the liquidity competition with ETH, which has further adverse effects on the performance of ETH.
Bull market in geopolitical crisis
After the announcement of non -agricultural data and employment data last week, “lower interest rate cuts” seemed to be gradually accepted and digested by investors.
This week, the European Central Bank, headed by the European Central Bank, will also announce the latest interest rate decision.Although Europe’s inflation is far better than the United States, the European Central Bank also shows higher interest rate cuts, but considering that the influence of the European Central Bank is relatively weak than the Fed, it can determine the speed of global cash liquidity.The return speed will slow down.For the crypto market, the bull market may be more “gentle and long.”
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However, the situation does not seem to be the case.Since the beginning of April, the flow of cash liquidity in the crypto market has accelerated significantly.In the past week, the entire crypto market has obtained nearly $ 3 billion in cash liquidity, and the overall cash liquidity scale has also returned to the same period of the same period in Q3 in 2022.Affected by the above situations, BTC and ETH prices have risen, all cottage coins have been strongly supported, and market sentiment has also been significantly restored.What causes abnormal changes in cash liquidity?
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Let’s take a look at the performance of other assets.While BTC reached a record high, the price of gold rose by more than 25%within 6 months, and also broke through the historical high.At the same time, the price of silver and copper has reached the highest point in the past year.The rise in gold prices is usually related to risk aversion.As a long -term “hard currency”, when macro uncertainty rises, especially during geopolitical tensions, gold is an important hedging method.
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However, when we observe the price trend of silver and copper, things become interesting.Silver and copper are important military strategic materials, which are closely related to the weapon production and defense industry.Therefore, to some extent, the rapid rise in the price of silver and copper is an additional manifestation of geopolitical conflict and macro uncertainty risks.
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So, are there more similar clues?certainly!Since the beginning of 2024, crude oil prices have risen more than 20%, and strategic commodity prices such as coffee and other strategic significance have soared due to the increase in demand caused by geopolitical crises and the tension of supply chain.
The risk aversion has never been reflected in one asset; when the uncertainty comes, people will use cash to exchange for “safe hard currency” or materials.Of course, it is also one of the reasons for the rise of the stock market.The price of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin rose.
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BTC: Continue to rise?
Considering the continuous upgrading of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, it is difficult for global investors to avoid effectively relief in the short term.Therefore, risk aversion will strongly support the needs of BTC.At the same time, although the rate of flow of liquidity is expected to slow down, it is unlikely that the tightening of liquidity will happen again.Therefore, the liquidity scale of the “lock” spot BTC ETF will remain relatively stable.In the long run, the return of liquidity in the future will also promote the steady rise of BTC prices.
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Traders in the option market also hold a similar point of view.Although investors have weakened the bullish mood due to short -term fluctuations, investors’ bullish emotions for BTC have remained stable and dominated in the last month and far -end.However, investors’ expectations for the medium and long -term performance of BTC have decreased slightly compared with the same period in March, and the weakening of interest rate cuts may be one of the reasons.
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Judging from the latest gamma exposure distribution, with the end of the “asset allocation period”, the price of BTC seems to have some signs of stability.The price of BTC can get some support at about $ 63K-65K.However, if the price of BTC rises further, it will encounter some resistance near $ 74K, and the resistance level will increase significantly as the price rises.
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It is worth noting that the latest implicit volatility data shows that traders still maintain a relatively cautious attitude towards BTC’s price performance.Faced with the upcoming BTC halving, although the level of macro uncertainty is relatively low, and the pricing of the tail risk level has also decreased, traders still expect that the price change of the price of BTC at the 7 -day price may reach 9.27%.Can reach 20.74%.
Considering that investors are still rising, Ideally, BTC prices still have the potential to exceed $ 80,000.However, fluctuations have never been one -way; we cannot ignore the possibility of BTC below $ 65,000.
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The caution of traders seems to make sense.In the spot market, although the number of whales over 1k BTC is still increasing, in general, whales holding more than 100 BTCs have stagnated, which means that the purchasing power is weakening.Generally speaking, although holding BTC in the middle and long term is still a good choice, as the “asset allocation period” is temporarily ended, the price increase of BTC may gradually stabilize.
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Non -BTC cryptocurrency: internal games
Compared with BTC, ETH is not so lucky.The probability of the spot ETH ETF passes gradually becomes smaller.Even the most optimistic ETH investors will gradually accept negotiations and games around spot ETFs.ETH’s performance depends more on the re -distribution of internal liquidity of the encryption market and changes in the level of macro -liquidity within the encryption market.
From a macro perspective, benefiting from the expectations of interest rate cuts, traders still have a long -term attitude towards ETH’s long -term performance.But similar to BTC, the weakening of interest rate cuts also has a negative impact on ETH’s future performance expectations, which is reflected in the changes in ETH futures annual premium.
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Although investors’ price changes in ETH are relatively high (9.94%/7 days, 21.5%/30 days), from the latest Gamma distribution, investors are more likely to worry about fluctuations in price declines.Instead of fluctuations brought by the decline in price.By rising.If the price of ETH shows a downward trend, it can only get some support after falling to nearly $ 3,300.
At the same time, compared with the resistance of the uplink interval, the support on the downlink path appears to be “insignificant.”Unless there are enough favorable events under the current market operating model based on “liquidity re -configuration”, the hedge behavior of the market businessman will make it difficult for ETH prices to break through and stabilize above $ 3700.
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Fortunately, ETH whale seems to have slowed down the spot selling speed.Under the influence of Ethena and other projects, pledged existing cargo profit has become a relatively more profitable business, and the traditional Covered Call strategy has also been favored again as the price increases.However, this only means that whales are temporarily “neutral” in price games.
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For speculators, in the case of weak ETH prices, investing in other more growth potential coins seems more appropriate, which has a further adverse effect on the performance of ETH.ETH’s market share once fell below 16%; although recently, ETH’s market share was still shrinking significantly compared with last month.Considering that the market share of the BTC in the past month has not changed significantly, it is clear that the cottage coins have occupied a certain advantage in the liquidity competition with ETH.
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Overall, holding ETH is not a “bad strategy”; for giant whales, ETH’s rich and interesting channels can still bring relatively stable and considerable returns.However, for the warriors seeking breakthrough returns, considering the current leverage level and the relatively low speculation of the cottage coins reflected in the funding rate, the pace of re -configuration of the liquidity of the crypto market seems to be a more suitable choice.Essence
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