jakiro
Recently, with the heating up through the expected $ ETH ETF, the market’s eyes have gradually returned to the EVM ecology. As the largest forecasting market on the chain, PolyMarket has attracted much attention because of whether the $ ETH ETF can be successfully passed.As the so -called trees, although Polymarket has gained huge liquidity, its settlement method has been questioned by participants.Let’s follow DR.DODO to explore the beginning and end of the dispute.
Polymarket
First introduce the Polymarket protocol. PolyMarket is a prediction market based on the Polygon public chain. Because its release time is early and operates long, it is currently the largest forecast market on the chain.The platform allows traders to use $ USDC or $ ETH to predict the hottest and most controversial topics in the world today. From the National Presidential Election to the next day, the price of $ ETH will exceed $ 4,000.Polymarket attracts city merchants through liquidity reward plans to provide traders with excellent transaction depth.
Polymarket has made two rounds of public financing.The first time was the seed wheel financing, raised four million US dollars; the second time was 45 million US dollars led by Founder Fund on May 14, 2024.For a DAPP, this scale of financing is quite considerable.
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Source: polymarket.com
UMA
When it comes to PolyMarket, it has to mention the service provider UMA behind it. PolyMarket uses the OP prophet (OO) deployed on Polygon to ensure the fairness of the prediction results.
Polymarket’s UMA integration includes three parts: market contracts, CTF adapter contracts and OO.Each market will contain a condition generated by a CTF adapter when it is created. This condition is the question that OO needs to answer. For example, “Will the price of $ ETH exceed 10,000 US dollars in the third quarter of 2024?”
When the market initializes, the CTF adapter will automatically send a request to OO.The proposal in the UMA system can respond to this request. If there is no dispute, the response will be considered correct and submitted to the CTF adapter after two hours of the challenge period.If the answer is incorrect, or other participants in UMA have objections to this answer, other participants can debate the answer as controversy.
In the first objection, the CTF adapter will ignore the objection and send the same parameter requests to OO again.If the second request is questioned again, the request will be sent to the DVM system (OO arbiter) of UMA, and the arbiter consists of UMA token holders, and they will vote to determine the result of the objection.
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Source: https://github.com/polymarket/uma-df-adapter?tab=readme-Ov-File
The dispute of ETF pass or not
Objury point:
Some traders believe that $ ETH ETF did not really pass before May 31, and everything was just a speculation for UMA resolution.Because the US ETF needs to obtain a 19B-4 application and the approval of the S-1 application, it can be officially traded on the exchange. At present, the S-1 application has not yet been approved, which means that the $ ETH ETF can still have a variable.
Timeline:
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After the US Securities and Exchange Commission approved the 19B-4 application of Ethereum ETF, the UMA proposal gave the results of ETF passed.
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Maybe because the challenge period is too short or UMA voting rights are too concentrated, there is no objection to the voter during the two -hour challenge period, so the response is adopted as the final result.
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Subsequently, there were objections to objection to the result, and requesting the adapter to send it to OO again, but the YES result was overwhelmed by a voting of up to 99%.
In this regard, Polymarket did not make an official response to the incident.
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Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ethereum-etf-act
The early and future of the predicted market
In the era when the major L1 public chains have not yet risen, the concept of predicting the market has appeared.
Augur
For example, Augur deployed for the first time in 2018, early V1, V2 because the architecture was too complicated, and finally optimized the Augur Turbo officially released in 2022.Unlike Polymarket, the Augur prediction results are determined by the THERUNDOWN data provider of the Chainlink prophecy machine.Compared with the UMA mechanism of PolyMarket, the result of the ruling is higher. This may be the reason why there is no continued operation later, because compared to centralized forecasting markets, there is no great advantage. After all, the current centralized prediction market is also very good.Happy to support cryptocurrency recharge.
Azuro
Azuro, which has been rumored to be issued recently, has taken another way. Unlike the traditional predicted market DAPP, Azuro has gone to a higher level.As an emerging forecast market infrastructure provider, it tries to quickly integrate prediction functions through a uniSWAP architecture, rather than focusing on making a market by itself.However, it is inevitable that as long as the prediction is real events, the final prediction results determination still comes from data that is not decentralized.DEFILLAMA data shows that Azuro’s current TVL (locking volume) has steadily increased, and its income is not low in small and medium -sized DAPPs. At present, a total of $ 11 million has been conducted.Infrastructure providers will inevitably have the advantages of wide coverage and large users, and look forward to Azuro’s subsequent development.
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Source: https://azuro.org/#intro
A new generation of forecasting market represented by PolyMarket is mostly built on the first or second -layer blockchain with a lower cost of GAS. Compared with early projects, it has a natural advantage: no longer refuses small traders due to huge GAS costs to reject them.Outside the door.However, there is a big gap between the prediction market of Polymarket to achieve the project vision.In the current situation where the blockchain infrastructure is not yet perfect, the project has to weigh between decentralization and efficiency.Nevertheless, it can be seen from the financing situation that investment institutions are still optimistic about the prospects or speculative expectations of the forecast market.Technology often requires capital promotion, so we still look forward to the future development of this track.
Author
We do not evaluate whether PolyMarket’s decision in this incident is correct, but from this incident, we can see that in the cross -area and centralized cross -area, decentralized products have not fully realized its decentralization vision.When encountering a chain incident, a centralized decision is still needed, so there is a certain centralized risk.The project party can only do its best to achieve relatively fair assessment, and it may be a better way to extend the market settlement time.This also reflects that Polymarket has a small amount of actual users, so the official uses cold treatment to resolve the dispute.
Before solving the reliability of the source of the prediction results, the future of the forecast of the market track is still full of uncertainty.A long time ago, we realized that the “impossible triangle” of the blockchain was the same, and this problem also existed in the forecast market.To further develop the project, it is necessary to solve the problem of decentralization of the prediction results. This may require major changes or technological innovations in the bottom of the blockchain and even society.
