jakiro
Author: Ukuriaoc, GLASSNODE; Compilation: Deng Tong, Bitchain Vision
summary
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Bitcoin has been halved for the fourth time, and the annualized inflation rate of Bitcoin supply has decreased by 50%, which decisively surpassed gold in terms of scarcity.
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When the measurement is halved, the growth rate in multiple network statistics is declining, and the absolute value of these measures continues to climb to a new ATH.
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The rise in spot prices and the decisive breakthrough of ATH have boosted the profitability of investors, which inhibits the decrease of 50% from the beginning of the year.
Shrinkage supply
Because of the ingenious mining algorithm called “difficulty adjustment”, the Bitcoin supply curve is certain.The agreement adjusts the difficulty of the mining process of Bitcoin, so that no matter how much mining equipment is applied, the average block interval is maintained at about 600 seconds (10 minutes).
Every 210,000 blocks (about 4 years), the predetermined mining volume will occur, and the newly cast BTC will decrease by 50%.The fourth Bitcoin halved occurred on the weekend, and the block subsidy dropped from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC, or about 450 BTCs (for 144 blocks for mining) per day.
In the fourth halving, 19,687,500 BTC has been mined, which is equivalent to 93.75%of the terminal supply of 21 million BTCs.Therefore, only 1,312,500 BTCs are left in the next 126 to mining, of which 656,600 (3.125%) will be mined at the current stage.Interestingly, half a halved at a time represents a point:
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The residual supply percentage is equal to the new block subsidy (3.125 BTC/block VS remaining 3.125%).
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50%of the remaining supply (1.3125 million Bitcoin) will be mining between the fourth and fifth halves.
With the decrease of block rewards, the inflation rate is also halved every 4 years.This makes the new year’s inflation rate of Bitcoin supply 0.85%, which is lower than 1.7%in the previous period.
The fourth halving also marks an important milestone comparison between Bitcoin and gold. In history, the steady -state issuance rate of Bitcoin (0.83%) is lower than gold (~ 2.3%), marking the historic transfer of Bitcoin titles——This assets are the scarce assets.
However, it is important to take the scale of halving.When evaluating the relative impact of halving on the market dynamics, compared with global trading volume in the Bitcoin ecosystem, the number of newly mining Bitcoin is still very small.
The mining volume only accounts for a small part of the chain transfer volume, spot volume and derivatives we see today, which is currently equivalent to less than 0.1%of the total capital transfer and transaction capital of any day.
therefore,The impact of Bitcoin’s halving on available transaction volume is weakened in all cycles. This is not only because the number of mining Bitcoin is reduced, but also the expansion of the scale of its assets and ecosystems around it.
Hope of grounding
Half is an important and well -known event, and it will naturally cause people to exacerbate their guessing of the impact on the price trend.Balance our expectations and historical precedents and create loose boundaries based on past performance may be useful.
The price performance of Bitcoin in each period of half a period is very different. We believe that the early halving period is very different from today and cannot play a great guiding role.Over time, we did see the natural result of the decreased return and the weakened total retracement effect. This is a natural result of the continuous expansion of the market and the capital flow required to promote the growth of market scale.
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red:EPOCH 2 price performance:+5315%, the maximum retracement is -85%
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blue:EPOCH 3 cost performance:+1336%, the maximum retracement is -83%
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green:EPOCH 4 cost performance:+569%, the maximum retracement is -77%
The evaluation of the price performance from the low cycle to half, we noticedThere are obvious similarities between 2015 and 2018 and the current cycle, and they have gone through about 200% to about 300%.
However, our current cycle is the only cycle that has decisively broke through the previous ATH before halving the incident.
Another perspective is to check the market performance within 365 days after halving.The performance of the second period is much larger, but we must consider that the dynamics and pattern of the current market have changed significantly compared with the 2011-2013.
Therefore, the last two periods (3 and 4) provided a richer description of the impact on the scale of assets.
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red:EPOCH 2 price performance:+7,258%, the maximum retracement is -69.4%
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blue:EPOCH 3 cost performance:+293%, the maximum retracement is -29.6%
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green:EPOCH 4 price performance:+266%, the maximum retracement is -45.6%
Although the year after the minus incident was strong in history, some serious price declines also occurred in the process, from -30% to -70%.
History is sometimes similar
During the bear market in 2022, a common statement was that the price would never be lower than the previous cycle of ATH ($ 20,000 set in 2017).This is of course invalid, because during the extensive deleveraging process at the end of 2022, the price fell by more than 25% compared with the high 2017 cycle.
Recently, a similar statement has been circulating, that is, the price cannot break through the new ATH before halving.In March of this year, the statement expired again.The ATH we see in March originated from the significant interest in the historically supplying tension (WOC-46-2023) and the new spot ETF.
The rise in prices has also had a significant impact on the unrealized profits held by investors.At present, the unrealized profits held in tokens are the largest since halving the incident (measured by MVRV).
In other words, as of the halved day, investors hold the largest book income relative to their cost basis.The MVRV ratio is 2.26, which means that the average unit book income of BTC is +126%.
Fundamental growth
In the previous section, we evaluated the historical price performance centered on halving.In the next section, we will turn focusing on the growth of network fundamentals, including mining security, miners’ income, asset liquidity, and settlement in half.
Computing power is a type of online statistics that is used to evaluate the collective “firepower” of mining groups.During the halving period, the growth rate of computing power has slowed down, but the absolute hash value per second has continued to grow. At present, it is 620 exahash per second (equivalent to all 8 billion people on the earth to complete 77.5 billion hash per second).
Interestingly, the computing power is in or close to the new ATH in each halving incident, which indicates that two cases may occur:
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More ASIC devices are about to be launched;
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More efficient hash ASIC hardware is being produced.
The conclusion from these two situations is that although the mining volume is reduced by 50%at a time, the overall security budget is not only enough to maintain the current OPEX cost, but also enough to stimulate further investment in the Capex and OPEX fields.
When the dollar is denominated, the growth rate of miners’ income is also declining, but the absolute scale is expanding.In the past 4 years, the cumulative revenue of miners reached an amazing $ 3 billion, an increase of a magnitude over the previous period.
The upper limit has been a powerful tool for measuring capital that invests and stores in Bitcoin for a period of time, which can be used to compare cross -periodic liquidity growth with US dollar pricing.
Through this measure,Bitcoin has “stored” the value of USD 560 billion in US dollars.The upper limit has increased by 439%over the previous period, supporting the current $ 1.4 trillion market value of the asset.It is also worth noting that although Bitcoin has infamous volatility, bad headline news and cyclical retracement, capital is still continuing.
Finally, if we evaluate the amount of transfer of settlement in half, we can see that the economic value of online transfers and settlement in the past four years is as high as $ 106 trillion.It should be noted now that this is considered the original unique transaction volume and will not be adjusted for internal wallet management.
Nevertheless, each transaction is settled without an intermediary, which highlights the incredible large -scale value throughput capacity of the Bitcoin network.
Summarize
As the highly anticipated half is completed, the mining volume of each block is halved, the scarcity of assets intensify, and the scarcity of Bitcoin assets decisively surpass gold.
Compared with each period, computing power, network settlement, liquidity, and growth of miners have contracted.However, the absolute value of these indicators increases an order of magnitude. From the perspective of the market size, this is an incredible and impressive feat.
It is worth noting that compared with the previous minus, the online profitability of market investors in various industries has increased significantly.This includes the basic miner, and they have entered a halved, and the computing power has reached ATH, which indicates that there are sufficient security budgets to stimulate operating expenditure and capital expenditure demand.
