How long is there a way to compare WeChat Ton to implement Mass Adoption?

Written text: EVAN, JOY, Aaron J, Waterdrip Capital

1. Now is the moment when Mass Aduption is placed at the primary explicit construction

Mass Adoption (large -scale popularity / adoption) has always been the core challenge of Web3.However, the market is often easier to focus on short -term wealth effects, ignoring the sustainable projects and the key factor in realizing the Mass Adoption.Since the launch of the BTC in 2009, looking at many tracks, only the centralized exchanges, such as Binance, have exceeded the 200 million mark with their users, have become the first typical products of the web3 field to realize Mass Aduration.

With the passing of the BTC ETF, the market has ushered in a bull market that is unique to BTC OG and believers.In contrast, due to the insufficient liquidity, the performance of the new coins is not unsatisfactory, and the cong coins are far from showing the phenomenon of the last round of bull markets. Most Web3 users have not enjoyed the prosperity of the bull market.In the last round of bull markets, crypto users increased rapidly from less than 50 million users in 2019 to 420 million in 2022, an increase of about 10 times.However, since the beginning of 2024, global encryption users have only increased by 30 million users, which is far lower than the last round of bull markets.

>

Global web3 user growth chart, data source: triple-a, https://www.triple-a.io/cryptocurrency-OWNERSHIP-DATA

From the perspective of the primary principle, the root cause of the gap is that because of this, it is now the critical moment that put Mass Adoption at the construction of explicit construction.

2. WEB3 Implementation of Mass Adoption

A16Z emphasized in its “Big-IDeas-IN-Tech-2024” report that simplifying the user experience is the basis for the web3 to implement Mass Adoption.

Binance pointed out in its “Road to One Billion On-Chain Users” report that the implementation of Mass Adoption requires two core conditions: one is the chain application that users want to use; the other is that these applications must be easy to understand and access.Many products that have implemented products -market fit (the following referred to as PMF) and successfully crossing cycles have confirmed these two core conditions.At the same time, the crypto industry also needs to build necessary infrastructure, tools and public cognition to make the concept of “digital ownership” easy to understand and access global society.

Mark Suster, the management partner of the Los Angeles veteran risk capital company, mentioned that if you want to build a Mass Adoption product, in addition to PMF, you also need to make the product continue to make money and have a large enough target market.

Mass Adoption not only obtains users, but also can capture the liquidity in the hands of users.

IOBC Capital believes that solving the problem of compliance channels for traditional institutions to enter Web3 is also the key to implementing Mass Aduption.The issue of compliance is considered a soft infrastructure. With the approval of the BTC/ETH ETF, the establishment of the Bellaide RWA Fund, and the candidate in the US presidential election to join the construction commitment of Web3, related policies and compliance channelsThe development of development is steady and irreversible.

To sum up all kinds, if web3 wants to implement Mass Adoption, the following conditions need to be met:

1. Effectively meet a real needs (ie PMF);

2. The target market has at least billions of people or the scale of tens of billions of dollars;

3. The user adopts low threshold and high product ease of use;

4. The upstream and downstream supply and infrastructure of the core value and experience of the product are mature;

5. Be able to obtain users on a large scale and accurate manner;

6. Have long -term sustainable business model.

We can see that the conditions of 1-4, and there are many projects in the field of web3, and are constantly improving.Telegram and TON bring bonus for conditions 5.But conditions 6 has rarely progressed.But the core logic is:

• PMF 业 Business model, product does not mean that you can make money to make money

• Without sustainable profitability, it is difficult to have a large -scale and accurate customer acquisition for a long time. After all, the airdrop can only bring a low -cost outbreak to the project in the early stage.

Looking back at the previous round of cycles, DEFI, GameFi, NFT, and Yuan Universe have provided sufficient motivation for Mass Adoption. They all match the above requirements: Axie Infinity and YGG solved the revenue of a large number of unemployed people in the Philippines during the epidemic period.The problem, Stepn matches the user’s fitness needs and reduces the user’s threshold through the built -in wallet.However, so many projects have achieved significant results, but due to the lack of sustainability of the business model, non -financial return product value cannot impress users to pay, which makes it impossible to continue Mass Adoption’s mission.This provides us with valuable experience and lessons.

3. The advantages and challenges of TON ecology to realize MASS ADOPTION

3.1 advantage

Social cracking network based on 1 billion users -can obtain users on a large scale

As of now, Telegram has 950 million monthly live users, and its social network has provided broad implementation space for the project’s social essay marketing.Social fission (Word-TO-MOUTH) marketing is one of the most efficient large-scale customer acquisition methods, and large-scale efficient acquisition users are an important prerequisite for achieving Mass Adoption.

>

Comparison of marketing methods and channel effects in the web2 era, data source: miniton

Relying on the advantage of TON ecology, the Ton ecology has successfully bred multiple ecological projects with a number of ten million -level users, of which 60%of the active projects belong to the game category.Among them, Notcoin took the lead in achieving this goal, and has attracted more than 35 million cryptocar users since its launch.It only took less than a month to publish its tokens $ not to release from online to the exchanges, and achieved a 400%increase within two weeks of launch, becoming one of the few Alt Coin who performed well in this round of bull markets.

Further attract developers through the small program framework -maximize the need for end user requirements (PMF)

For ecology and infrastructure, the PMF of the product is a probability problem. Ecology can solve the PMF problem by increasing the number of products -eventually a product can meet the needs of users.Obviously, the combination of Telegram applet +Ton ecology has attracted a large number of developers to develop a large number of applets to be infinitely close to the various needs of users.

The reasons for developers to settle in Telegram and TON are very clear: there are a large number of users here, plus the conversion rate from exposure to open application here is very high: applets provide users with the shortest access paths, no need to enter URL, no download, that is, click, click, pointUsed -this not only reduces the threshold for user use, but also increases the transformation rate of product acquisition.

Banana Gun is a Telegram robot, which was launched on July 18, 2024.It can not only promote the automation and manual transactions on the Ethereum network, but also support users to manually buy and sell tokens on the Solana network.Undoubtedly, the success of Banana Gun benefits from the support provided by Telegram’s robots and applets, and the advantages of touching users on Telegram.

Highly integrated MPC wallet -low threshold and high ease of use

Ton currently provides users with two wallet tools: Telegram Wallet and Ton Space.Except for users in the United States, other users can open Telegram Wallet by adding Wallet robots and start Ton Space in Telegram Wallet applets.When trading in the Telegram application, from registered account opening to transfer, to every payment, the Telegram wallet provides the most convenient user experience at present, with the same experience close to WeChat payment.

With the low threshold wallet provided by the TON ecology, the Catizen in Ton ecology has achieved a 10%chain user conversion rate. It has 25 million players, about 1.5 million chain gamers and more than 500,000 paid users in the world. The game income exceeds 160010,000 dollars.

On July 23, the Binance Incubator announced the investment in Catizen’s distribution platform Pluto Studio.He Yi, the head of the co -founder and the head of the Binance Laboratory, said: “The Binance Lab has always been keen to support projects like Pluto Studio. These projects may attract billions of users to join Web3. We look forward to supporting more.The visionary builders, they aim to create products designed for large -scale adoption (Mass Adoption). “

3.2 Challenge

Single dependence on Telegram

The biggest advantage of Ton ecology is that it has the official exclusive support of Telegram: the only web3 infrastructure integrated with Telegram and promoted within it.This is an advantage and the biggest risk. Any change in Telegram may have a systematic impact on TON.For example, on the day of the arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov, Ton’s tvL fell more than 60%in a single day, highlighting the systemic risk behind a single dependence on centralized organizations.

Defi track development insufficient development

Although users are the foundation of funds, not all products and teams have the ability to monetize traffic.The current common Telegram user has insufficient payment capacity. We believe that it is not an ecological problem, but the reason for the product form and the team.For example: Catizen and a considerable amount of Trading Bot/ applet have a good capture of the liquidity behind Telegram traffic.At the same time, about 60% of the traffic in Web2 WeChat games is also from decentralized product fission.Nevertheless, the scale of Ton ecology is still unreasonable, which is mainly related to the lack of its DEFI track project.At present, Ston.fi and Dedust account for 80%of the Ton ecological total tvl.

Inadequate commercial service services

Developers’ attention to the ecology usually includes four points:

1. Platform scale

2. Infrastructure perfectness

3. Touch the efficiency of users

4. Support of traffic realization

In these four aspects, points 3 and 4 are commercialized services / infrastructure.In these two aspects, TON each realized only 50%.

In terms of reaching users, TON realizes a large -scale high -efficiency reaching: the current Ton ecological customer acquisition mode, except to share the fission mode, mainly uses the non -effect marketing CPM method of Telegram ADS, and the point wall of the point wall between small programs and small programs.These two methods are mainly.However, due to data privacy protection, accurate reach and effect marketing cannot be achieved, unless Telegram violates its product principles and collects many user privacy data.

In terms of traffic, TON provides excellent payment tools, such as the web3 payment tool Telegram Wallet and Ton Space, and the Web2 payment tool Telegram Star.However, most of the products that match the needs of users are not applicable to the monetization of payment, such as free tools and mild games.These free products that do not apply for payment are often establishing a stable and reliable business model, which is an indispensable prerequisite for products to implement Mass Adoption.The lack of Ton ecology in business services / infrastructure seems to be the final obstacle to the final unclear obstacle to building a Mass Adoption product.

There are also many participants on the issue of business models.MINITON is a subsidiary of Ton Foundation, a commercial monetization service provider. It provides TAAS (Tournaments As a Service) profitability for leisure games and competitors to help them get rid of the dilemma of relying on advertising monetization.The agreement is a blueprint, which reconstructs the social operation mode of the game to establish a continuous and stable web3 business model.

The profit model (EF & AMP; RK) and advertising (IAA) and game -based purchase (IAP) profit models are tied into three major game monetization modes.In PVP games such as chess and cards, this model has been widely used. This type of game in the web2 market has a market size of more than 30 billion US dollars, and it has always been the best -selling category in social procedures.Driving force.MINITON’s use of encryption technology not only seamlessly combine the profit model of competitive competition with Telegram.At the same time, an encrypted social agreement is used to optimize the operating model for PVP games with a market size of more than 30 billion US dollars.

MINITON got the key investment and incubation of WaterDrip Capital in the early stages of development.At present, MINITON has provided players with a social competitive platform. Through game battle contracts, players can also get e -sports experience in stand -alone leisure games, and establish a new social connection.Developers can access the monetization solution provided by Miniton through the development time of 1.5 days by accessing SDK.

As of now, MINITON has completed the Alpha I closed test, the number of users participating in internal testing has reached 30,000, and the payment rate transformation has been achieved by 1%.The Alpha II test version is expected to be launched at the end of September, and the test scale will be extended to hundreds of thousands of users.

It is worth noting that MINITON’s game contract is a multi -chain protocol that does not rely entirely on a single ecosystem, so it has strong anti -system risk capabilities.

4. How much success and failure can be drawn from WeChat from WeChat ecology

4.1 Whether WeChat is worth referring to

Like Telegram, WeChat belongs to social products, based on communication and social relations.But Telegram users are very different from WeChat users.The following is the user data of the TELEGRAM in the last week based on third -party monitoring:

>

List of Telegram user data, data source: WaterDrip Capital

4.2 Telegram is different from the user portrait of WeChat users:

The difference between the geographical distribution of crowds, the most significant difference between Telegram and WeChat lies in the habits of users: the user’s habits:

• WeChat is a typical acquaintance social, strong social relationship application.Telegram belongs to the application of pan -social relations, which is more similar to QQ.

• WeChat people have a daily use of 1.5 hours.Telegram per capita in a single day is 0.5 hours.

As of the end of June 2024, the number of monthly active users of the WeChat Mini Program reached an amazing 930 million, with an penetration rate of more than 90%.Customer acquisition advantages, plus WeChat mature commercial service infrastructure, is the core reason for the success of developers in the WeChat mini -program ecology:

1. Ultra -lightweight users touch the way: no need to download or enter the URL, click is to use it

2. Effective customer -based customer acquisition: about 60%of traffic comes from users to share

3. New incremental market: According to data, 755 million monthly active users of WeChat mini games in February 2024, even exceeding the number of 650 million users of the mobile game app

4. Efficient commercial service system: Based on WeChat advertising and WeChat payment, 2023 mini -game revenue reached 3 billion US dollars

The Telegram applet has the first three advantages of the appeal. Compared with WeChat, the shortcomings of Telegram are particularly obvious:

1. Perform user payment capacity: Most users come from low -payment areas;

2. Can not be placed on accurately: It is not possible to provide precise marketing services like WeChat advertisements based on the principle of privacy protection, and it is difficult to obtain high net worth or target users;

3. Low payment penetration rate: Telegram wallet penetration rate is only 5%, and the penetration rate of WeChat payment is 92.4%.

But it is undeniable that Telegram is still the product with the highest penetration rate of encryption.Cutting in from the high net worth of crypto tracking tracks can be reached the current shortcomings of the Telegram mini -programs.Therefore, the success mode of WeChat Mini Program is worthy of reference.

4.3 Project Construction Path from WeChat Mini Program / Mini Game Ecological Reference

By sorting out the development of the ecological development of the WeChat mini -game, we found that the survival of WeChat mini -game developers depends on the degree of service provided by WeChat officials.

>

WeChat mini -program development timeline and project examples, Source: Waterdrip Capital

WeChat small -range preface is barbaric growth timeline

At this stage, WeChat operation lags, and ecological barbaric development: Because it can easily obtain a large number of users through fission sharing, there are a large number of “exchanging skin” games for 5 days development + 3 days to complete cost recovery, resulting in rough quality of the game.

At this stage, mini -game distribution adopts a decentralized method, mainly the source of customer acquisition depends on other small programs and WeChat advertising.

During this period, the income of mini -games and free mini -programs mainly comes from advertising (IAA) monetization, that is, to import users to other small games or applets, and access WeChat advertising monetization plug -ins.

It is worth the reference of web3 developers: In contrast, Telegram is also in the current stage.Excluding the phenomenon -level game “Pirates Coming” during this period, 98%of the TOP 50 games during this period are leisure and leisure competitive games.For example, “Happy Fighting Landlord”, “Three Division of Numbers”, “Brainpower”, “Geometry Escape”, “I Want to Be the Emperor” and so on.The gameplay of “I Want to Be the Emperor” belongs to the same type of gameplay as today.

From 2020 -2022, ecological adjustment

During this period, there was a certain macro particularity during the epidemic. For example, the health code applet had 800 million users in 2020.

As of October 2022, WeChat Mini Program has a monthly active user of 1 billion.On the one hand, the WeChat Mini Program Ecology has focused on improving the scale of traditional industries, such as education, medical care, and catering.On the one hand, guide the gaming industry to improve product quality, provide developers with more than 100 functions and interfaces, and continuously improve their own commercialization (IAA and IAP) services.

During this period, the only phenomenon -level product of WeChat mini -game was “A Sheep”.Due to WeChat’s requirements for the quality of game content and restrictions on sharing of cracking behavior, the WeChat mini -game shows a smile curve.But from the results, WeChat’s operating strategy is successful.In preferably, 50 games revenue exceeded 50 million, and 7 games revenue exceeded 100 million.

>

WeChat mini -game user “smile curve”, source: Waterdrip Capital

It is worth the reference of web3 developers::The best -selling game in this period is still casual competitive products, such as chess and cards.From the perspective of gameplay: cards, MMORPG, operation, and placement games have the highest income.

From 2023 to the present, the outbreak of stability

Thanks to the continuous guidance of developers to develop high -quality content in WeChat mini -games, and at the same time, it has continuously optimized the underlying support for mini -games. Middle -weight and high -income games have emerged in large quantities.

According to Tencent’s 2024 Q1 financial report, the total use time of WeChat Mini Program users increased by more than 20%year -on -year.The WeChat mini -game revenue increased three times compared to 2022, and the quarterly flow of more than 240 games in more than 240 games in one year exceeded 10 million.

Reasons for the outbreak of WeChat Mini Program / Mini Games in this period:

• Allow WeChat mini -games and applets to put advertisements on WeChat external platforms (such as Douyin), which further improves the efficiency of advertising.

• New live customer acquisition channels have been added;

• Game best -selling head categories gradually change from chess and card games to most: MMORPG, placement, card and operation;

• Commercial monetization has changed from a single IAA or IAP to a mixed monetization (all IAA + IAP).

4.4 Ton experience drawn from the growth of WeChat mini -programs

• Continuously committed to solving the problems that developers care about (PMF), such as improving the compatibility of game engines, improving the efficiency of customer acquisition, opening the external effect marketing channels outside the TelegramSupport for commercialization solutions, etc.;

• Having a response speed based on the rapid adjustment of the market like WeChat (adjustment of multiple ecological operation policies every month in the early days of WeChat);

• Provide support for each start -up product as much as possible, such as providing special and free traffic support policies for each small program (compared to the preferred policy of WeChat Mini Program);

• Encourage ecology to produce high -quality content.