jakiro
Source: Miaotou app
Trump 2.0 Cabinet is not only the layout of power, but also a trailer for future policy trends.
After the U.S. election, the market focuses on the forthcoming policy of the Trump administration, especially the trend of the policy of China.During his second term, the composition and position of the cabinet members are undoubtedly the vane of judging future policy trends.
Theoretically, the appointment of members of the American cabinet not only requires Trump’s nomination, but also confirms the Senate -this step is “the key to success or failure.”Fortunately, during the new term, the Republican Party continued to control the Senate, so Trump was able to further promote the cabinet nomination and policy agenda.
After the dust was settled, Trump quickly entered the “full speed forward” model. In just 15 days, he completed nominations for 15 Cabinet Ministers, and nominated more than 20 key figures.
Next, we will interpret future policy directions by analyzing the characteristics of Trump’s new cabinet selection.
#01 Trump policy landed or accelerated
The selection of Trump 2.0 cabinet emphasizes loyalty and trust rather than professionalism. This strategy will reduce internal friction and ensure that government decisions are more efficient.
In the first term, many of Trump’s controversial decisions exposed the differences between members of the cabinet, especially in immigration, tax reform, diplomatic and social issues.For example, in terms of immigration family separation policies, Minister of Health and Public Services Tom Price and Minister of Land and Safety Kyle Nelson publicly expressed their opposition, and eventually forced Trump to sign an administrative order in June 2018 to stop thispolicy.
In addition, Trump’s relationship with the first Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is more tense.According to reports, Tillerson once bluntly said that Trump was “stupid” in a private meeting, and this remark eventually caused him to be fired in March 2018; Trump’s chief strategic consultant Kon was also becauseTrump’s policy direction was divided and left the White House.
In order to prevent the cabinet in the first term, Trump is more inclined to select loyalty to his cabinet members in the second term, not simply rely on their professional abilityEssence
His nomination usually comes from three types of candidates:
The first category:Those who have firmly support the Trump policy and defend themEssenceFor example, Secretary of State Malcow Lubero, Minister of Justice Pam Bondi, and Minister of Communications, Sean Dafi, etc., they defended Trump and voted for support in the impeachment case and the Capitol.
The second category:Core member of the Trump campaign teamEssenceFor example, the White House Chief of Staff Sussi Wales, the Minister of Commerce Holo Ludnick, and the Minister of Education, Linda McMamong, who played the role of Trump’s campaign fundraising and team operationImportant role.
Third category:Publicly defend and criticize the Democratic Party for Trump and criticize the Democratic PartyFor example, Fox News host Diffi and Hergseus.
These nominations highlight the characteristics of Trump’s current government: loyalty supremacy, and ability to live, and behind it also reflects Trump’s determination to break the “Washington Institute”EssenceTrump’s Vision Washington has a “political swamp” that is full of bureaucratic style and interests. He believes that business management experience can improve government efficiency and execution. Therefore, he chooses business executives and military figures with non -traditional backgrounds in ordergame.
For example, Hollyd Lutnick, nominated by the Minister of Commerce, is the leader of the financial industry and lacks political experience; Linda McMacmahon, a nomination of the Minister of Education, was the CEO of the wrestling company and lacks the background of the education field;Ben Carson, a nomination of the Urban Development Minister, is a famous neurosurgeon and has no political experience.
All these people are considered to help Trump make fast and decisive decisions when reforming economic policies and promoting industry interests.
Although most members of the new cabinet do not have traditional political backgrounds and experiences, their policy propositions are highly consistent with Trump, their ideas are more uniform, and they can more smoothly promote the implementation of Trump’s policy.
besides,Most of them have a strong stance on China,This also provides more firm support for Trump’s China policy.
#02 Sino -US trade friction or intensification
In the Trump 2.0 cabinet, the obvious “Eagle Eagle” lineup once again occupied important positions.
For example,Rubio is nominated as Secretary of State, and Walz is nominated as a national security consultantEssenceThe two regard China as a “survival threat” and advocate that it will curb China as the core goal of the US strategy.In the book “The Decades Tempa”, Rubio pointed out that the United States is in key supplies(Such as medical supplies, medicines and technical equipment)The dependence on China has brought major risks to national security.
also,Trump also nominated Jamisen Grier as a US trade representative on November 26, 2024. This is a key position that directly affects Sino -US tradeEssenceGreel was the chief of staff of Robert Littich, and Littichzer was known for his tough stance to China -dominated the Sino -US trade war and promoted high tariffs on Chinese goods and 301 investigations.
The reason why Grier became a successor was that he was familiar with Littichizer’s work style and policy framework, and played an important role in the Trump administration’s trade policy.
Greel’s nomination will also exacerbate market concerns, because his business background and global economic perspective make him might take more aggressive means, such as trade barriers and economic sanctions.To promote Trump’s US manufacturing return strategyEssence
In addition, why do Trump advocate the return of the US manufacturing industry?
The United States was the world’s largest manufacturing country, but since the end of the 20th century, especially with the intensification of globalization and industrial outsourcing, many manufacturing companies have transferred production to countries with low labor costs, especially China and other Asia.This change makes the United States in some fields(Such as basic consumer goods production)Lost enough manufacturing capabilities and have to rely on imports, especially products from China to meet market demand.
Trump believes that globalization has brought unfair competition to the United States. The labor advantage of low -cost countries has led foreign -funded enterprises to dominate the US market, which has exacerbated the loss of the US manufacturing industry.Therefore, he put forward the policy of returning manufacturing, and strives to restore domestic productivity, stimulate employment and revitalize the local economy.
This is also an important reason for Trump’s tariff policy. He tried to return the US manufacturing industry to return the import tariffs.Although he has not yet officially worked, Trump announced on November 25, 2024 through social media that it will impose a 10%tariff on all imports from China to further strengthen this strategy.
Unlike the United States,China is the world’s largest manufacturing country(According to the World Bank data in 2023, China’s total manufacturing output value ranks first in the world, surpassing the United States and the European Union), But the problem is that the domestic consumer market is relatively insufficientEssence
Therefore, China has turned its attention to overseas markets, especially in Europe and the United States.According to the WTO(WTO)In 2023, global cargo trade data, China ’s international market share was 14.2%in 2023, of which about 40%of the European and American markets accounted for about 40%.
Economic complementary relationship between China and the United States(American lack of production, China lacks consumption)To a large extent, the trade and cooperation between the two countries has been promoted, but with the increase of trade barriers, this complementarity has gradually been damaged.External pressure has also promoted China to increase policy adjustments, promote domestic consumption and industrial upgrading, while seeking more international cooperation opportunities.An important way is the “Belt and Road” initiative.
Through the “Belt and Road” initiative, China can export its industrial capacity, infrastructure construction experience and technology to countries along the route, promote the economic development of these countries and improve infrastructure.(Such as minerals and energy)Form a complementary relationshipEssence
andUnlike Western countries that rely on the “credit standard” and financial leverage model, China’s “Belt and Road” initiative has adopted the “physical standard” pathObviously this is a more sustainable economic development model through direct investment infrastructure construction and exchange with local natural resources.Especially when the global financial system(Especially the system based on credit (system)When fatigue occurs, the “physical standard” may indeed show different effects from expected, and greatly enhance the economic stability of some countries or regions.
All in all, Trump’s “US priority” policy and the tough positions of its cabinet members will undoubtedly deepen the barriers to tariff between China and the United States.In the short term, we may face some economic pain, but this is also the expected situationEssenceHowever, with the advancement of the “Belt and Road” initiative, China may still get more opportunities in the global economy, especially in industrialization and regional cooperation.
Of course, the key factor affecting the trend of the A -share market is not only the Sino -US trade policy, but also the Monetary policy path of the Federal Reserve.
#03 The Fed is “overhead”?
By reviewing the performance of A shares in Trump and Biden, we found thatThe Fed’s monetary policy is one of the keys to affecting the trend of the A -share marketEssence
During Trump’s ruling period(2017-2020)Because the Fed implemented a loose monetary policy, the overall performance of A shares performed well, especially in 2017, 2019 and 2020.And during the ruling period of Biden(2021 to the present)The Fed’s continuous interest rate hikes have led to rising capital costs, tightening liquidity, and weak A shares, and most of the time are down.
So the problem now is:Will the Fed continue to adopt loose monetary policyIntersection
When making monetary policy decisions, the Fed will usually weigh multiple factors such as economic growth, inflation and employment to ensure the healthy and stable operation of the economy.We have also analyzed before that if the Trump administration levies tariffs sharply, it will directly raise the cost of imported goods, disrupt the global supply chain, and reduce market competition.Copy inflation.
However, in Trump’s second term, the situation may usher in some turns.
Compared with other positions, Trump has experienced repeated trade -offs when he chose the Treasury Minister.I first nominated Scott Bason, and then considered Howard Lutnick(Later, nominated as the Minister of Commerce)And Kevin Vosh, eventually returned to Bason.
On November 22, 2024, Trump nominated Scott Barst, the founder of Gey Square Group, a global macro investment company, served as the Minister of Finance.
This decision may more reflect Trump’s high attention to loyalty and policiesEssence
Bason has served as chief investor at the Soros Fund Management Company, and provided a large number of economic policy suggestions for the 2016 Trump campaign, especially in promoting economic growth, tax reform and fiscal policies.
Bason and Trump are highly fit in economic concepts. Both tend to stimulate the economy through loose monetary policy, especially in a low -growth or uncertain economic environment.Essence
What’s more important,Barst has proposed to set up a “Shadow Fed Chairman”, advocating that the new government should choose the next Fed Chairman as soon as possible and promote the reform of the Fed’s policy formulationEssence
If this proposal is adopted, it means that the Trump administration may impose greater control over the Federal Reserve in the field of economic policy, making its decision -making process more consistent with government policies.This intervention may undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve and make it no longer able to make decisions based on economic data and long -term goals. Instead, it needs to take into account the government’s political agenda.
in this case,The Trump administration obviously hopes to ensure that its economic policy is effectively implemented through more direct control, and further consolidation of the economic concept of “U.S. Priority”EssenceTrump has always advocated promoting US economic growth through low interest rates, fiscal stimuli and large -scale infrastructure investment, and promoting employment and consumption through these measures.In a low interest rate environment, consumers and enterprises are more inclined to borrow and invest, which is essential for economic growth.
If the Trump administration can really “overhead” the Federal Reserve, it may make the loose monetary policy the norm, which is also highly consistent with his consistent “US priority” policy.At that time,We may usher in a more political monetary policy environment, and for the A -share market, the profit is greater than the disadvantagesEssence
