jakiro
As a product that faces Retail, games have always been placed on high expectations for this cycle, Mass Adoption, but since 24 years, the performance of the entire second-level game sector has been unremarkable.In addition to the overall market recession, it is also because we are still in the middle and early stages of the bull market cycle. Retail wil comes later in the cycle. Historically, the leading order of indicators is Btc price > Crypto interest > chain game interest.
And when they finally arrive, no matter whether it is game content or Infra, whoever really has PMF (Product Maket Fit) will be visible.
In this period when there are not many incremental users, an Ecosystem has maintained a very high user base and growth, that’s Ronin (the Sky Mavis behind it is also the developer of GameFi Axie, the hit last cycle. Currently on RoninThe most popular game is Pixel)
Ronin is essentially a side-chain technology side of the previous generation.The market may only give these two Spotlights for a while when $RON and $PIXEL Binance are listed.
This article will explore the real competitiveness behind Ronin – Sky Mavis’s localized issuance and operation capabilities.In the vast Ghost Chain ghost town, if you suddenly find that although your property does not vigorously promote it, it is really a lot of people living in it. How do you guess the market will reprice?
1. Encrypted game
Whether in encryption or in the real world, the evolution of bubbles generally has very typical cycles.The same is true for chain games.
1. First Cycle 20-21: When a new thing comes up, Narratives > Fundamentals, a sexy narrative with a ceiling high enough to attract countless hype funds and attention.We are already transforming traditional finance, why not transform the traditional Internet?Why not make a Web3 game?Simple and easy-to-understand narrative + the entire track is in full swing, and there are not many targets to hype. With the support of attention, the market value of GameFi’s leading projects has been greatly hyped.
2. The second cycle 21-22: The success of new things has attracted countless people to join.Avid funding and entrepreneurs don’t explore the deep reasons why new things succeed, but only blow bubbles around Narrative.Among the many entrepreneurial projects, some people have discovered the deep reasons for the success of new things and intend to add various leverages to Overplay this opportunity. Under various reasons, the bubble burst.
People disgrace Narrative, and the Perception of the market slides to the other extreme.Play to earn is so dead.
3. The third cycle 23-24: Because there were still large amounts of financing and projects under development in the previous bubble, and the entire track has not been completely falsified, people always have fantasies about reviving a bubble.So I continued to produce products and put them on the market, but found that the market no longer bought into the old Narratives.
So the projects tried to go to Align other new Narratives… Countless Gaming layer2, countless 3A games, and countless AI games.
However, when a track is no longer new and there are a wide range of target options, the problem is often, ok, good points, but what’s so special about it?
Currently, the third cycle of crypto games, the market is more rational, and the attention and funds will be concentrated on projects with real moats and projects. For game projects, if they cannot find their own Unique PMF, they will only rely on narratives to follow the flow and fail.It’s very likely.
2.So what is the Value pro for Crypto games?Who is the real game user?
The project party, VC, players, and retail investors have a great understanding of misalignment. VC thinks it is FOCG (Fully On-Chain Gaming), Ground-breaking gameplay innovation, the project party thinks it is 3A, and the exchange thinks it is web2 userIncrementality, players think it is a profitable amount of money, while retail investors think it is a super high multiple.We are in it for very diff things, which has also led to the lack of synergy in the first and second level performance of the game for 23 years.All hypes don’t last long.
Looking back on the 21 years of P2E boom, what is Axie’s real PMF, what is Sky Mavis/YGG’s moat?
In fact, the answer is not complicated, it is just covered up by a more fancy and sexy narrative.Crypto natives are blind to this very Web2 logic.
The true core competitiveness is Southeast Asia’s ground promotion channel/local operation capabilities.
Without a continuous low ARPU (Average Revenue Per User), there will be no asset precipitation for new users, and no positive flywheel will be difficult to operate continuously without asset precipitation.——Whale R studios are all smart money, and the rate of return is calculated clearly for you, and they all plan to retreat before you.
In the prisoner’s dilemma, the game economy is about to decline without even the chance to grow into the Great Treasure Pavilion.
The fact is:The small Incentive+ simple and without a threshold + a large number of strong gambling users who pursue small profits are the secret recipes for all successful Crypto games, but they don’t sound high-end, so they all think of it.Pretend to be confused when you understand.
A little more abstract, this is a game game, the second-level investor Speculate coin price (speculate on this Pangshi progress), the project party invests part of its equity, and uses strong US dollars to acquire customers in low- and middle-income countries to do customer retention. Players can operate it through simple operations.Leisure + salary + certain opportunities to get company options to make a fortune.
If we add a classic template for airdrops, if we save all kinds of on-chain operations, will there be more Normie e-beggers, and will everything be more cyberpunk and more interesting.
Of course, if your game is fun and good enough, it has always been feasible to play attention economy by making a Meme coin.
3.The market has been overlooked
After clarifying the most PMF player group, the question is where to find it?Southeast Asia is a market that cannot be ignored. In this cultural language, economic development level is different from that of Europe, America and China. At that time, many Tencent’s self-developed games were released by Garena to solve the problem of local conditions in Southeast Asia.Garena’s experience in localization is that you have to do what users like, you have to do what they can afford, and you have to come from them.
So they launched many skin props that did not conform to the “game world view”, which made the game extremely light, sacrificed the screen performance, and increased the adaptability of low-end machines/bad networks.And those products that are too far away from users will eventually be punished by the market.
In reality, many encryption games face GTM difficulties because they don’t understand the market. They don’t know who the user is, where the user is, how to do retention by UA, and ignore low ARPU (Average Revenue Per User).) �
But when you come to the Philippines in Southeast Asia, none of these are the problems, here are the most realistic p2e game scenes/educated users and “infrastructure”.The per capita income here is less than US$11, and 40% of people do not have a bank account.During the 21st Axie boom, people could even use SLP to buy snacks at gas stations/restaurants.PESO has a serious depreciation and people are strong in gambling.
Although the collapse of Axie’s bubble caused countless local players to suffer heavy losses, as the market recovered, a new batch of P2E games grew again in this market. The rebirth after the bubble actually shows that there is a real user demand behind it..
The number one game on Ronin, Pixel, increased from November 2023 to March this year, the number of users in the Philippines increased from 80,000 to 830,000, and 30% of the world’s P2E gamer was based in philippine.Interestingly, many Pixel players are actually real farmers in the suburbs of Manila. They work in the fields during busy farming, and when the farming is slack, they collect vegetables and supplement their income in the crypto world..Pixel’s founder luke said that Filipino farmers even gave him various suggestions in the community to make the game more realistic.For example, crop fertilizer, sowing and harvesting cycle, etc…
People can’t understand why a Pixel Wind Ranch Story web game that does not have a particularly large wealth effect can always attract users. Binance on FDV on 1 billion?
Actually, I don’t understand
1) Most players actually don’t expect to make a lot of money. How much can they sell when they receive a pumpkin? They are happy to see the warehouse full of ownership.
2) This is one of the few options they can access, play and trust, and behind each subdivision condition is the moat accumulated by Sky mavis for 3-4 years of hard work.
In Pixel discord’s nationality verification interface:
In the Philippines people gather in Internet cafe and play Heroes of Mavia and Nifty Island.Many players are full-time.
Internet cafe/Vietnam Mobile cafe is a completely unfamiliar game scene to many Western development teams.
Many people have never tried to stay in a 30-degree Internet cafe in their lives. The heat and noise of the host are all in their ears. They are practicing to make money with the smell of sweat and smoke from netizens. How do you ask them to make a real PMF?Chain game?
In addition to gamers, around p2e games, there is also a very complicated business ecosystem in the local area, such as Internet cafes, gold medal unions, chain game education media, software and hardware developers, etc.Players have access to new game information through these very localized channels and have a very localized/offline organizational link with mature players’ community, because they may be exposed to a certain game because friends/neighbors/teachers/colleagues are playing.
Without localized contacts and distribution and operation strategies, game projects are like sailing in these markets.This is far from being a gap that can be filled by asking a few local kols to post a soft article.guess what?Most Filipino players don’t even use twitter…
The communication channel is one aspect, and for p2e games that require real money, publisher brand/safety endorsement is even more important.
Unlike many outsiders’ ideas, Axie’s collapse, including the 22-year crypto world’s major defeat, has actually been very limited in social public opinion. In addition to the fact that this market is already very degenerate, it is also because of YGG/Sky Mavis and others.Players’ investment in PR for many years (such as making documentaries, telling stories about improving the livelihood of local low-income people, and making all-in Axie get rich at the bottom of society, etc.) has made local people shaped a relatively positive perception of crypto.
So in the eyes of players, P2E game = the game I saw on the Ronin platform.Think from the perspective of others, if Chinese players have a heavy krypton gold, will they have a more “secure” in Tencent games?If you have put all your assets in Ronin’s wallet, how easy is it to migrate to other games?Or, would you know there are other games/wallets?
In fact, the entire Ronin ecosystem is related to other interoperability and is eager to open up liquidity chains. Ronin is like an isolated island, firmly speaking, the user’s attention and money are deposited in the ecosystem.
So for those projects that want to break into the Philippines, Ronin is the one & only go-to.
4.P2E never die, he grows only on suitable soil
Whether it is the Philippines, Eastern Europe, or Africa.The popular market of these recently emerged with the following similarities:
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1) Fiat currency faces certain crisis
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2) The population structure is younger, and a large number of young people who have time to go
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3) Underdeveloped economy, per capita income ~ USD 10
Although these markets have good Crypto adaptability, ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) is low and is not a traditional Degen retail source (North America, China, South Korea). Funds often involve gray products, so they are often projected.Ignore.
The cake in the sinking market is the elephant in the room.
There are many ways to make things work in the crypto world, which can talk about the sexiest narratives, or make the most down-to-earth products.If you choose the latter path, please earnestly cultivate your sinking market and face your Normie users directly.
The localization of the sinking market and Normie gtm are what many Crypto native projects are very lacking.After all, in many projects, users only have two types of users who have been pursuing hair and cryptocurrency trading for many years, and in terms of operation, they are completely free of charge for some small language areas.
Just finish the cake in your hand that others look down on, and you will find that maybe everyone else is hungry.
