jakiro
Author: Simrit Dhinsa, Anthony SCheercousse, Samuel Kiernan, Gabe Parker, Zack Pokorny, Galaxy; Compilation: White Water, Bit Chain Vision Vision Vision Realm
Foreword
In the first half of 2024, it was the critical period of the Bitcoin mining industry, and the economy changed significantly, and the market developments continued to evolve.Miners faced the roller coaster of economic changes. At the beginning of the year, they have been performing strong. Until the fourth halves of Bitcoin, the fact that the price of hash has fallen to the lowest point in history.Despite these fluctuations, large miners still unswervingly adhere to their growth trajectory. After the depression, the economic downturn has stimulated a series of mergers and acquisitions in this field, because the miners seek integration and benefit from the scale.
In addition, the fusion of artificial intelligence (“AI”) and high performance calculations (“HPC”) with the fusion of the trend of Bitcoin provides a chance to distribute capacity to miners to meet the index demand curve in AI/HPC.As the title shows, with Bitcoin miners, large -scale users and other people in terms of land and electricity acquisition, the value of Gigabit has increased significantly.Those companies with energy -oriented ways will have unique advantages and can use the trends of these two industries.
In this report, we will explore the changing pattern of Bitcoin mining. First of all, we will outline the current mining economic status, and then expand the key themes after the reduction, such as constantly changing capital market patterns, huge demand for power capacity for power capacityThe increase in mergers and acquisitions and the growth rate of hash rate in the second half of the year.
summary
From the peak level of the 88.1 T (implicit hash rate 630 EH), as the hash rate hit a record low, the difficulty fell by 10%in early July, and the low point after the decrease was 79.5 T (hidden hash rate rate rate rate rate (hidden hash rate rate rate rate rate rate rate569 EH).As of writing this article, the difficulty is 82.0 T (the implicit hash rate 587 EH).
In the first quarter of 2024, public miners raised a total of $ 1.8 billion in equity, setting the highest amount raised in the past three years.
Although the miners have been raising funds through the issuance of stocks in recent months, as the value of available power capacity has soared, we expect that the debt capital market will reopen in the second half of 2024 and 2025.
Miners who have obtained large -scale power capacity, purchased long -term delivery infrastructure, and can use water and fiber to use the best position, and can use the artificial intelligence revolution.
In our annual report, we estimate that the target range at the end of 2024 is 675 EH to 725 EH.We now increase the growth of 725 EH and 775 EH, combined with public miners’ information, seasonal trends and profitability analysis.
From January 1, 2024 to July 23, 2024, Bitcoin miners incurred a transaction fee of 12.97k BTC (as of July 23, 2024).Miners earned about 55%(23.4K BTC) of total cost of 2023.
So far this year, the transaction volume of various transactions has exceeded 460 million US dollars, mainly divided into site sales, reverse mergers and acquisitions and company acquisitions.We expect that the industry’s mergers and acquisitions will continue in the future.
Market situation
The mining economy in the first half of 2024
In the first half of 2024, it can be described as a story of two quarters.In the first quarter of 2024, miners enjoyed the best economic benefits in the past two years.Promoted by the rise in Bitcoin prices, the average price of hash this quarter was $ 0.094/Th.The hash rate continues to rise steadily this quarter to offset the part of the price of Bitcoin.In the first quarter of 2024, the strong profit margin was necessary for Bitcoin to establish cash balances before the fourth half of the second quarter of 2024.
The mining economy in the second quarter has remained strong until the fourth time Bitcoin fell halvedEssenceAt halfway, the highly anticipated Runes launched a trading fee for several days.In the week after half, the miners have generated considerable transaction income, and we will further discuss in the next section.
The transaction fee increased the market price to $ 0.17/Th in a short period of time, which reversed the impact of the decrease in block subsidies.In retrospect, the hash price is the indicator of miners’ choice, which is used to extract the total income of every day’s computing power every day.However, this soaring is very short, and after the transaction fee is stable, the hash price has reached a record low.Since halved, the average price of hash is $ 0.054/Th.
The difficulty from the peak 88.1 T (the implicit hash rate 630 EH) decreased by 10%, and the low point of 79.5 T after the halved in early July (the implicit hash rate 569 EH), because the hash rate hit a record low.As of writing this article, the difficulty is 82.0 T (the implicit hash rate 587 EH).
At the current level of hash, a considerable part of the miners in the network are still profitable, but the profit margin is small.Some miners with a wait -and -see attitude may continue to operate because they can produce positive gross profit.However, when considering operating costs and additional cash costs, many miners found that they were unable to map, and cash was slowly used up.In the first quarter of 2024, the strong economic situation helped establish a cash balance, which extended the survival time of inefficient miners.If the price or transaction fee of Bitcoin has not risen significantly, we expect that if the hash price will fall further, the most profitable miners will withdraw from the network.
Even if this happens,The downlink pressure caused by the non -profit -seeking miners off the machine will also be offset by the activation of the new generation of special integrated circuit (ASIC).The nameplate hash rate of the new generation of machines is more than twice that of the previous generation hash rate.Based on the market value, seven of the top ten public miners jointly predict that in the second half of 2024, 109 EH mining machines will be added.As we are analyzing at the end of the report, although it has recently decreased, butWe believe that the hash rate will rise sharply in the second half of 2024.If the price of Bitcoin has not risen, it will bring resistance to miners.
Transaction fee fluctuation
Since January 1, 2024, Bitcoin has contributed more than 99 million chain transactions.Of these 99 million transactions, 50% is a standard transaction, and we define it as a financial transaction.Runes, BRC-20 and Ordinal transactions account for 35%, 11%, and 4%of the transaction volume, respectively.Considering the alternative token agreement launched on April 19, 2024, RUNE -related transactions accounted for 35% of the total transaction volume of the total market share.Since its launch, Runes has an average of 63%of all Bitcoin transactions.
From January 1, 2024 to July 23, 2024, Bitcoin miners incurred a transaction fee of 12.97k BTC (as of July 23, 2024).Miners earned about 55%(23.4K BTC) of total cost of 2023.The fourth decrease of Bitcoin occurred on April 19, 2024, making 2024 a milestone year.On the day of the minus, the daily fee paid to the miners soared to a historical high, exceeding 1,200 BTC.This soaring is largely due to the launch of Runes, which is a new UTXO -based alternative token protocol, which debuted for the first time at a minus block.On this block, the Rune token XXXXFHUXXXXX has paid a fee of $ 23 million, becoming the first RUNE collection contained in the depression of the block (block 840,000).It is worth noting that 2,411 BTCs (19%) of the costs incurred to the present to the present are from half -day and three days after the decrease.
Since January 1, 2024, 67% of miners’ cost income came from standard financial transactions, while 19% came from Runes.BRC-20 and Ordinals transactions account for 14%of Bitcoin costs since the beginning of the year.
“Excess Payment” refers to the cost of transaction in the block (in the unit of SATS/VBYTE), which is higher than that of SATS/VBYTE in the same block.We choose the mid -range SATS/VBYTE level, because we believe that if you are a high time preference user, the bid near this level will provide you with a reasonable opportunity to be included in the next block.The transaction that deliberately sets up higher SAT/VBYTE rates usually has time sensitivity.During the fourth half of Bitcoin, April 20, 2024, trading costs soared sharply.The daily median counting rate reaches 590 SATS/VBYTE, and within an hour after half of the block, the average median block rate has soared to 1,840 SATS/VBYTE.Rune -related transactions pay the fee for the median/VBYTE level of 250 SATS/VBYTE (42%higher than the medium number SATS/VBYTE), which is included in the half -half block and several areas subsequent areas.piece.During the same period, the cost paid by standard financial transactions was 200 SAT/VBYTE higher than the median SAT/VBYTE (34%higher than the median SAT/VBYTE).Since halving, standard financial transactions have paid 51 days in terms of expenses than Rune transactions, and RUNE transactions have been paid for 18 days in terms of expenses than standard financial transactions.
After superimposing the daily number of RUNE transactions and the above figure, we found thatThe surge in Rune transactions is positively correlated with the surge in financial transactions.Sensitive financial transactions are forced to incorporate a competition block with Rune.Although the RUNE transaction will be incorporated in the block when the RUNE transactions surge in the surge in the RUNE transaction, these are regarded as an abnormal value related to the specific Rune token coin.
Analysis of block data can be found that the frequency of standard financial transactions and Runes transactions is different within a 10 -minute interval.Since halving half of the block (840,000 blocks), the average financial transaction has an average of 2.4 MB per block, while the Runes transaction has always occupied about 1.5 MB of block space.Although Runes is a more efficient alternative token standard than the BRC-20 (0.06 MB per block), Runes has a leading position on block space for BRC-20, highlighting the market for market currency standards for the RUNE token standardPreferences.In the halving block, the Runes transaction consumed 2.7 MB, accounting for about 68%of the 840,000 total space.
Growth/infrastructure
Continuously changing capital market structure
In the first half of 2024, miners raised unprecedented funds.Since the fourth quarter of 2023, due to the expectations of the spot Bitcoin ETF approved, the valuation has begun to soar, and the miners have continued to raise funds (mainly equity) to rapidly expand the scale until half.In the first quarter of 2024, the miners raised a total of $ 1.8 billion in equity, the highest amount raised in a single quarter in the past three years.
Before halving, miners actively raised funds to fund rapid growth, hold bitcoin, improve the efficiency of miners, and establish cash buffer to use the opportunities in difficulties.Among the $ 1.8 billion raised, 75% came from the top three miners in the market value: Marathon, Cleanspark, and RIOT.Bitmain and MicroBT launched a new generation of machines at a very attractive price, which further exacerbated people’s sense of urgency, requiring to expand production capacity and insert machines as soon as possible to generate strong return on investment (“ROI”).
As shown in the figure above, debt capital has basically disappeared from the market since mid -2022.Previously, the choice of debt financing available for miners was mainly revolved around the mortgage ASIC.ASIC’s challenges facing financing are the volatility of ASIC pricing, the rapid depreciation of the collateral, and the requirements of many additional margin in many contracts.When the mining conditions deteriorate, the machine not only decreases the cash flow, but also decreases. As LTV rises, the miners cannot repay the unpaid debt, and the lender has fallen into a precarious situation.
However,As the value of available power capacity surge, we expect loan to re -enter the market in the second half of 2024 and 2025.Bitcoin miners and large -scale enterprises (that is, large data centers with scalable cloud infrastructure) have increased the value of available energy capacity on the infinite demand of power capacity.From the perspective of the lending party, the locks of miners underwriting with large -scale power capacity can be guaranteed to provide protection in the case of deterioration of the mining economy.In addition, during 2022 and 2023, miners focused on strengthening the balance sheet by reducing the loss of debt and the creation of a more streamlined cost structure.Therefore, we believe that the industry is now in a more favorable position and can bear some debt, not just relying on issuing stocks to achieve growth.
Power assets are still in the price discovery period.The recent asset sales occurred in a wide range of prices per MW, but overall rising.From the perspective of miners, the value of the continuous rise in the venue may be attractive at the project levelBecause it is a non -diluted alternative, it is differentiated compared to the peers that continue to dilute shareholders as their main capital sources.
Focus on generating free cash flow and the creation of lean structures. At the same time, the combination of debt with cash flow may be combined, which can allow miners to develop in an efficient way.Extending to artificial intelligence and high -performance calculations can also open the door for the source of new debt capital that pure miners cannot obtain.
Even if there are more and more debt opportunities, the expansion “arms competition” continues, and we expect that large -scale equity financing activities will last until the second half of 2024.Driven by the ambitious growth goals, the prospects of Bitcoin prices in the future, and the narrative of artificial intelligence/high -performance calculation, the valuation of the listed miners has risen.The improvement of these valuations helps miners to reduce the dilution of shareholders’ shareholders.As large public miners announce their ambitious goals, even if the price of hash is still close to historical lows, expansion and financing activities will not seem to slow down.
MW worth millions of dollars
Miners are at the pinnacle of integrating growth trends in Bitcoin and AI/HPC.In view of the non -linear correlation between operating costs and BTC prices, the profit of the miners is still small, and it is still in a favorable position, which can benefit from the continuous bull market of Bitcoin prices.At the same time, the generation AI is one of the fastest growing technologies in history.For example, ChatGPT has 100 million users in the first two months after launch, becoming the fastest growing application in history.Coupled with the power required for the AI model training and reasoning than the power used by the traditional data center (the power consumption required for a single query of the ChatGPT is 10 times that of Google searched), the AI military reserve competition has produced a short and short -to -inGet the amazing demand of reliable electricity within time.
By 2030, global data center demand is expected to increase by 160%.In the United States, the current demand of data centers is estimated to be 21 gigree (“GW”), and it is expected to increase to 35 GW by 2030.The power generation capacity installed in the United States is expected to increase by about 370 GW in the same period.However, as shown in the figure above, the US Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) is expected to be scheduled (coal, natural gas, nuclear energy, etc.) that can be scheduled.) It will fill the expected supply and demand gap to a large extent.Therefore, if it is converted to Taiwa (TWH), it is expected that the power generation will increase by 240 TWH, and the new data center load (assuming the normal operating time is 99.995%) will increase 123 TWH (14 GW / 1000 * 8,760 hours / year / year / year* 99.995%).The increase in intermittent power supply, coupled with the growing demand for the flexible load of the data center, may lead to the grid congestion, power transmission restrictions and supply shortages, because the loads in other industries such as electric vehicles and domestic industrial manufacturing will increase.This may lead to further delay in the launch schedule and facility protocol of load interconnection research and approval, as power grid operators are evaluating the relationship between the rapid growth of the US power demand and the growth of power generation.Mark Zuckerberg pointed out in an interview with DWARKESH PODCAST recently,There is currently no Gigabit Data Center. “The key is to ensure energy”, which is the biggest bottleneck in AI super computer competition.Electrical capacity competitions are in progress. Bitcoin miners with large -scale electricity, continuous land, water, and fiber connecting are the most capable of using this trend.
Although there are many differences in Bitcoin mining and AI data centers, from the perspective of listing time, miners are in the best position and can enter the AI/HPC data center market.From high -voltage substation components to downstream low -voltage power distribution systems, most core electrical infrastructure is similar to the electrical infrastructure used by traditional data centers.Some electrical components (including main electric transformers and gas circuit breakers) have a long delivery time. Miners who purchase these assets have a competitive advantage than new entryrs facing 3-4 years of purchasing time.
Miners have the land and electrical infrastructure required to build the world’s largest data centers in the world.Data center developers and large -scale enterprises may start bidding these parks to ensure that large -scale electricity is quickly obtained.This trend has just begun, and Coreweave acquired Core Scientific for $ 1 billion is obviously a pioneer.With the increasingly saturated traditional data center market and host hosting providers, large -scale enterprises will be forced to break through the boundaries and further enter the second and third -level markets.
Miners began to get involved in AI/HPC in 2023, but in June 2024, Coreweave and Core Scientific 200 MW custody transactions made the entire industry caught off guard.Before the AI boom, the value of the “giant sites” of these large miners is purely in its Bitcoin mining potential.However, the impact of the Coreweave transaction on the stock price of Core Scientific proves that miners can benefit from AI.The figure below shows that compared with the miners who are still focusing on pure mining strategies, those miners who have adopted measures to adopt measures to adopt mixed mining/AI methods have benefited a lot.
The reason why this advantage is because as of now, the economic benefits of the AI/HPC contract are strong.If it is attributed to the number of US dollars/MWS time (“$/mWh”), the output of the latest generation of Bitcoin mining machine is about $ 125/MWh (the hash price of S21 is $ 0.053/day/day/day/day/day), And fluctuate with the change of the price of hash.Assuming that the cost of electricity is $ 40/MWh, the gross profit of each MWh is 85 US dollars/MWh.In contrast, as part of the Core Scientific/Coreweave transaction, Coreweave is willing to pay a fixed 118 US $ 118/MWh time, and 280 MW (graphic processing unit (“GPU”)+ IT and mechanical cooling infrastructure).The cost allows Core Scientific to provide custody services, even after paying most of the capital expenditure investment.
If the market continues to reward miners who pursue the opportunity of AI/HPC, we believe that pure Bitcoin miners with large mines in the future will be reduced, especially if the hash price remains low.
As of July 22, the total market value of the company in the above figure (pure miner + mixed miners) was US $ 28.2 billion.When you compare this number with the capital of the influx of AI, as shown in the figure below, it is difficult to imagine that in the future, miners who are in a favorable position will not turn to a mixed method.With the growth of computing demand, oversized companies such as Amazon, Microsoft (Stargate, Wisconsin, Sweden), and Google have announced a plan for large -scale growth in the AI field in the next few years.
Some bitcoin miners have benefited from artificial intelligence.However, unless the miners prove that they can build and operate these data centers on a large scale, they will continue to trade at the price below the price center provider.
M & A
Throughout 2024, Bitcoin miners participated in a large number of mergers and acquisitions transactions.As our previous reports predicted, the trend of mergers and acquisitions has been consistent.Miners are increasingly enhanced their input control through the acquisition site, thereby achieving vertical integration.So far, the transaction volume of various transactions has exceeded US $ 460 million, mainly divided into site sales, reverse mergers and company acquisitions.The record low -hash price and steep ASIC efficiency curve forced miners to use more strategic methods to achieve higher excellent operations.Some of the motivations observed in 2024 include:
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Vertical integration:The era of light assets is disappearing.In the past, the mining union custody its entire mining fleet at a fixed electricity price sacrificed the flexibility of optimizing operations to improve cost efficiency.With the halved hash prices hit a record low, this forces miners to achieve vertical integration more than ever before, so that they can manage the bleak hash price and decline through economic reduction or reduction of operating expenses.Mining economy.In 2024, the power access of more than 1.1 GW was easy, indicating that the control of the miners’ control of its operation was enhanced.Public miners invested about $ 404,000 per MWs for power access, covering the current and future needs.
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Business integration:The public mining industry has a type of noticeable transaction, which highlights reverse mergers, because many mining business used to be maintained by the traditional fixed interest rate agreement. These agreements are no longer economical and feasible, which has caused widespread integration.
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Diversity:2024 is a year of seeking synergy through diversification. Whether it is geographical expansion to emerging markets with low energy costs, or diversified sources of income outside the mining.For example, BitDeer’s acquisition of ASIC Design Desiweminer reflects this strategy. By acquiring internal expertise, it promotes the launch of its exclusive ASIC, so that they can get another source of income outside Bitcoin mining.
Future mergers and acquisitions
For miners who have not upgraded the efficiency of miners or unable to adjust the cost after halving, we may see the erosion of liquidity and exhaust their capital reserves because they seek to withdraw or wait for the buyers to use their dilemma.If the price of hash has been maintained below 0.06 US dollars/ TH for a long time, we may see that the number of dilemma products increases, just like the situation at the end of 2022.At this hash price level, there is almost no profit space except for electricity prices, let alone considering related operating costs, depreciation and any unpaid interest.For example, at the current price level of hash, some of the most popular previous generations, especially Antminer S19J Pro, generated about $ 70/MWh time.When solving the bottom line of the miner, calculated at the average electricity price of $ 60/MWh, and almost no room for considering all other related costs.
Although the financial situation of some miners is unstable, miners with power assets may become attractive acquisition targets.The demand for electricity in high -performance computing has continued to increase.For example, large -scale enterprises are facing a shortage of power capacity relative to their service needs, and they are willing to pay a lot of premium for this.Earlier this year, Amazon’s network service purchased a capacity at a price of $ 677,000 per MW, which was much higher than the average mining transaction cost per MW of 2024.Asset -intensive miners act as agents for power, because the power grid interconnection schedule in the United States is still tight and the demand for artificial intelligence is still strong.It is worth noting that large -scale enterprises are preparing to bid for how much power connections.
For smaller private miners, it is still a challenge to get affordable capital.Even if the debt market is reopened, the debt repay rate may still be insufficient.These miners may consider reverse mergers with a listed company to make use of products in the market.
Evaluate attractive prospects
Factors affecting the company’s market value are constantly changing. When reducing the target’s scope of attraction, choice can be made.This choice is mainly due to changes in the power market, premiums to listed companies based on its strategy, and opportunities to obtain capital.The goal of evaluating ideals may sometimes look like a cat -catching mouse game, trying to understand market value and foresee the wave of demand.The following features some characteristics of the target may be attractive:
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Available at any time:Miners not only have existing power capacity, but also have a healthy approval of power pipelines and clear circuits. These miners may be attractive; “verbal commitment” will not work.For small miners who cannot reach the scale and cannot upgrade their fleets or operate, the situation is also the same, but they have valuable electricity assets and can achieve higher profits by deploying more efficient machines or turning to AI/HPC to AI/HPC.Essence
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Predictable income stipulated in the contract:The letter of intent (“LOI”) and the list of terms do not boast of stability.Miners who have signed contract income within a certain period of time can obtain continuous cash.In view of the speculative nature of the mining economy, miners will be influenced by the fluctuations of hash price fluctuations in nature, so it is wise to diversify the source of income.
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Previous fleet:When considering the speculative ASIC price speculation, many of the low -efficient fleets can sell their ASICs with discount prices of those who have more efficient fleets.This can make the price of $/Th, and provide a good price entry point for the return on investment of these auxiliary machines.Regardless of whether you want to mine (at low cost) or speculation, some machines of previous generations (30 J/Th) are sold at a very attractive price.Although this may not generate value -added in the context of achieving a high multiplier, it can quickly get returns while maintaining the options of future fleet upgrades.
In essence, some miners can become valuable goals to quickly obtain scalable electricity.Especially the miners with large interconnected protocols, power infrastructure growth channels and sufficient space.With these trilogy can increase the US dollar/MW premium that can be obtained by selling such capacity.As the demand for computing power continues to grow, we are glad to see how this will affect the valuation of miners and its attractiveness as the investment prospect.
Hash rate forecast
In our annual report, we estimate that the target range at the end of 2024 is 675 EH to 725 EH.We now increase the growth of 725 EH to 775 EH.In order to obtain our amendment estimate, we checked some of the public and co -miners and their hash rate goals to understand the reasonable possibilities we know. These possibilities were launched this year and inferred the rest of the network.We also analyze the seasonal benchmark as the benchmark.In order to complete the analysis, we analyzed the balance point of the network profit and loss to verify the scope.
First, we will study the growth rate of public miners in the second half of 2024.In the first half of 2024, with the help of soaring valuations and a huge amount of funds in the stock market, public miners entered large -scale procurement orders for new generation of machines.The following table summarizes the number of hash rates that some public co -communist in June, the target at the end of 2024, and the hash rate implied hidden in the second half of 2024.In general, assuming that each public miners have achieved the established goals, these public miners are expected to produce an incremental hash rate of 109 EH, which means that only 7 miners can bring about 18% of the online hash rateincrease.
Next, in order to estimate the growth of the rest of the network, we analyzed the trend of the hash rate of this part of the public co -owner relative to the rest of the network.As shown below, from a historical point of view, these public miners account for 11%-13%of the network.
An excessive simplified method is to divide 109 EH with 13%, and the extraordinary 838 EH growth of the remaining networks.However, this is assuming that public miners will continue to maintain a network ratio of 11-13%.The following scenario shows that if we change the share of public miners at the end of the year at the end of the year, and assume that the current network hash rate rate is 587 EH, and public miners’ hash rate increases by 109 EH.The share is 13%, so what will the hash rate at the end of the year.
We estimate that the share of public miners in the network will be close to 15%-30%, and the benchmark will be 25%.This is because public miners can enter the US capital market and can raise a lot of funds in the first quarter of 2024. Compared with private miners, this is a huge advantage.Based on the 25% share at the end of the year, this means that the entire network hash rate will reach 741 EH, which also means that the rest of the network will increase by 45 EH in the second half of 2024.
Therefore, strictly from the perspective of public miners, this fixed our hash growth benchmark as 741 EH.We expect,In the second half of this year, a considerable amount of hash rate will be put into use. We believe that it is feasible to use the replacement of machines and net new production capacity, which is feasible.Looking back at our analysis in the previous annual report, the following sensitivity table shows how much the network hash rate will reach under different combinations of replacing network percentage and additional GW production capacity expansion.From the 587 EH’s network hash rate, assuming that the new machine inserted the new machine is 17.5 J/Th, and the efficiency of the replaced machine is 30 J/TH.
We assume that the S21 has been deployed in the table above, but after 2024, the table emphasizes the impact of only the new generation of machine replacing the old generation machine on the online hash rate.In addition, the announcement of the new ASIC manufacturer shows that Bitcoin mining ASIC can achieve a 5 J/Th efficiency next year, which will bring another meaningful improvement to the Internet hash rate in 2025.
The next part of our analysis observes the trend of historical hash rates throughout the summer and the end of the year.As shown in the figure below,The hash rate is usually stable in summer from July to September.This may be due to the increasing proportion of networks in Texas and the Middle East, and miners there have to reduce the frequency due to high temperature.In addition, due to price fluctuations, avoiding four re -peaks (“4CP”), and participating in demand response plans, Miners in Texas are restricted.
After the summer, as the normal operation time increases, the demand for frequency reduction, and the new machine inserted by miners, the network hash rate has begun to soar.It is expected that public miners will increase the hash rate in the second half of the year. We expect similar dynamics this year. The summer network hash rate will increase slightly, and then speed up at the end of the year.
The network difficulty in 2024 is similar to the growth trajectory in 2022 and 2023.The difficulty of 2024 has changed synchronously with the difficulty of 2022.In 2022, from October to the end of the year, the difficulty increased by 14%from September to the end of the year.In 2023, from September to the end of the year, the difficulty increased by 29%.If we apply these growth rates to the current network hash rate of 587 EH, it means that the range is 670 EH to 760 EH.Although the goal we have previously concluded from public miners is at this high end at this range, it has allowed us to be confident in terms of feasibility from the perspective of infrastructure construction.
The final analysis is to understand the hidden hash price based on our goal hash, in order to understand the economy of the Internet’s economy.Several variables will affect this sensitive analysis, including Bitcoin prices, transaction fees, average network electricity prices and network efficiency levels.Considering the volatility of the transaction fee, we assume that they remain unchanged at 10%(0.3125 BTC) of each block subsidy.
For the average network electricity price, we analyzed the recent downward trend of hash rates to understand where the marginal unit of electricity prices is.After halving, the network was adjusted by 5.62%down, and the hash price dropped to $ 0.052.Using Coinmetrics Mine-Watch, the estimated average network efficiency is 33.3 J/Th, which means that the average network electricity price is $ 65/MWh.
With the increase of the online hash rate, the combination of machines will become more and more efficient.Therefore, we assume that the efficiency of the network is increased by 20%(j/Th is lower), which makes the efficiency of 26.6 J/Th.At these efficiency levels, if the electricity price remains unchanged at $ 65/MWhm time, the cost of the balance and loss of the network will be $ 0.041/Th.The price of hash has a quantitative income of each too Hertz’s computing power, and the cost of hash shows the total energy cost of each too Hertz.If we consider Bitcoin price and network hash rate, and assume that the transaction fee is fixed at 10%of the block subsidy, the following figure shows the average gross profit margin of the network.Assuming that the price of Bitcoin remains within the range of $ 65,000-70,000, the network can still support the hash rate of 741 EH, which further confirms that these levels are economically sustainable.
In short, according to the growth target information obtained from the public miners, the seasonal comparison of the previous years, and economic analysis, our preliminary hash rate goal is 741 EH.Due to the uncertainty of machine deployment, we created a range from 725 EH to 775 EH near this number.We realize that many factors may lead to deviating this range.From a good perspective, the improvement of the mining economy and the release and deployment speed of machinery are faster than expected. These two factors may make us more than 775 EH.From a bad perspective, the huge deterioration of the hash rate or a large amount of capital from Bitcoin mining to AI/HPC may slow down.
in conclusion
In the first half of 2024, it was the decisive period of the Bitcoin mining industry. During this period, it faced major economic challenges and breakthrough development.Although the mining economy has reached a record low, in the face of the lowest hash price and high power demand in history, the industry has shown extraordinary toughness and adaptability.
The integration of artificial intelligence/high -performance calculation and Bitcoin mining means that many companies are seeking to use the industry’s strong and unrelated economic advantagesThis is a new attempt to change.
As the demand for artificial intelligence/high -performance computing data centers and miners continues to increase, power supply is now a clear bottleneck.Therefore, miners with a large amount of electricity are in a favorable position and can stand out. For these miners, it is essential to maintain the capacity of the Mikovica in the direction of the maximum shareholder in the future.
