jakiro
Author: TANAY VED & Amp; Matías Andrade Source: Coin Metrics Translation: Good Oba, Bit Chain Vision Realm
Key points:
-
The fluctuations faced by the cryptocurrency market are affected by macroeconomic factors and cryptocurrency specific catalysts (such as sales of Jump Crypto investment portfolios).
-
In the second quarter of 2024, COINBASE’s revenue showed that the source of revenue changed, and transaction revenue decreased by 27%month -on -month, but subscription and service revenue increased by 17%month -on -month. Among them, stable currency income was the largest source.
-
Coinbase Stocks ($ Coin) and Nasdaq Comprehensive Index and major cryptocurrencies have a strong positive correlation, highlighting its unique position between traditional markets and encrypted markets.
introduce
This article introduces the latest situation of the encryption market in the background of the global market, and segmented the income of Coinbase in the second quarter of 2024.
Global market and encrypted asset decline
Last weekend, the combination of macroeconomic development and crypto -encrypted events has affected the global market and encrypted assets.The Bank of Japan (BOJ) increased the benchmark interest rate from 0-0.1% to 0.25%, and turned to currency tightening policy.This led to the biggest decline in the Japanese stock market since 1987. The Nikkei 225 index plummeted by more than 12%on Monday, while the yen (JPY) has soared against the US dollar.The U.S. stock market, which is bothered by the risk of recession and the expected economic data, has further declined, and the Nasdaq Composite Index led.
>
Source: coin metrics reference interest rate
Of course, the encrypted asset market has not been avoided in the development of these situations.The total market value of cryptocurrencies fell by about 26% to about 1.7 trillion US dollars, and then rebounded on Monday. BTC, ETH, and SOL fell 18% to 28%.The cryptocurrency -specific catalyst has exacerbated for sale. For example, Jump Trading lifted its cryptocurrency investment portfolio after receiving a CFTC survey, which increased the continued supply of MT.GOX creditors and the continued supply of GBTC and ETHE funds.In the past two weeks, the liquidation of Jump Crypto mainly came from ETH, and the deposit of the exchange has risen to the level of the FTX collapse.
In the end, these development led to an intensification of the encrypted asset market, and the exchanges were liquidated at the important price level.
>
Source: Coin Metrics Market Data
Coinbase’s second quarter of 2024 returns highlights
Coinbase is one of the most well -known cryptocurrency companies in the United States and the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States. The company announced the financial report in the second quarter of 2024 last week.The total revenue was 1.4 billion U.S. dollars, a 11%decrease from the previous month, but increased by 108%over the same period last year. Among them, the transaction volume income (core engine of its business) decreased by 27%from the previous month to $ 781 million.
Nevertheless, Coinbase has made exciting progress in the second quarter, adding new product categories and reducing the friction caused by the interaction on the chain.This includes the launch of smart wallets, reducing costs related to its second layer of Base, and integrating Base and Stripe to expand the use of stable currency and global payment infrastructure.As the United States launched the existing cargo Ethereum ETF and the implementation of MICA regulations in Europe, major progress has been made in achieving greater regulatory transparency.
Transaction income
>
Source: Coin Metrics Market Data
“Compared with the average in the first quarter, the average value of encrypted asset volatility (a key driving factor for income) fell by about 13%in the second quarter, resulting in weak trading conditions in the encryption spot market in the second quarter” -Coinbase 2024 No. 2024Shareholders’ letter in the second quarter.
The trading activities of the entire market declined from the peak of the first quarter, which was due to the sharp rise in crypto asset prices and promoted the rise in volatility and transaction volume.In the second quarter, Coinbase’s spot transaction volume stabilized at an average of about 2 billion US dollars in 7 days, of which 60% of the spot transaction volume came from BTC, ETH, and USDT, and 40% came from other encrypted assets.This reflects the market’s preference for mature and high -market value in the second quarter. It may be because at this stage of the market cycle, institutional transaction volume (US $ 189 billion) is greater than retail trading volume (US $ 37 billion).
Subscription and service income
However, this did not prevent its business from growing strongly in this quarter.COINBASE’s recent profit history shows that the income of non -trading activities (“subscription and service income”) increasingly affects Coinbase’s income structure and strategic direction.This part of the income includes income generated by the USDC protocol of Circle, the blockchain rewards generated by POS pledge, and the custody fee of the Bitcoin spot ETF, which increased by 17%month -on -month to $ 599 million.
>
Source: Coinbase quarterly income
The biggest increase comes from the USDC held on the platform, which comes from the income sharing agreement they reached with Circle.The interest income generated by Coinbase and Circle equal sharing supports USDC (such as the US Treasury Bonds and other US dollar equivalent assets) benefits from the current high interest rate environment.Although its status is increasingly prominent, the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates in the near future may adversely affect the stable currency income in the Coinbase business.
Which variables are related to $ coin stock prices?
As Coinbase expands to many vertical areas outside its core trading business, it is likely to be affected by the dynamic, interconnection nature and more wide market changes of the encrypted ecosystem.Understanding the relationship between various indicators and asset returns and Coinbase stocks (Coin) can provide valuable insights for its potential driving factors and risk factors.
>
Source: Coin Metrics Reference Interest rate, Network Data Pro and Google Finance
The above figure shows the Pearson -related matrix of various indicators and asset returns and Coin returns, which shows the intensity and direction of the linear relationship between these variables.
The percentage change of the Nasdaq comprehensive index and the Coin return show the highest positive correlation (0.58).This shows that Coin returns have been significantly affected by the widespread market trends and investor emotions in the traditional financial market (especially technology stocks).The correlation with BTC returns (0.49) and ETH returns (0.44) is also relatively high, indicating that the growth of the largest encrypted assets will affect the return of COIN.Interestingly, indicators related to the Coinbase business (such as spot transaction volume, stable currency supply and pledged ETH unit) show that it can be ignored.However, checking the 90 -day rolling correlation can better understand the changes in these variables over time.
The correlation between $ coin and the field of income
>
Source: Coin Metrics Network Data Pro, market data referral
The 90 -day rolling correlation between Coin income and key indicators shows significant changes, reflecting the dynamic nature of the cryptocurrency market and indicators related to the Coinbase business.In the early stage of Coinbase, as a listed company, Coin’s income showed the highest positive and negative correlation with the spot trading volume of the exchange (+0.3 to -0.4), indicating its initial importance to investors.However, over time, the relationship between it and the changes in the amount of stable currency supply and ETH pledge has become more and more prominent. Although this relationship is still weak, this indicates that investors’ attention is gradually turning to new sources of income sources.Essence
The correlation between $ coin and market return
>
Source: Coin Metrics Reference Interest rate, Google Finance
As a Nasdaq listed company, Coinbase provides a unique investment portfolio for the cryptocurrency market and the traditional financial market.The rolling correlation with Nasdaq’s comprehensive index returns has always showed a strong positive correlation. Until 2023, the cryptocurrency market declined, which enlarged the influence of the traditional market.Although due to the interrelationivity of cryptocurrencies, the return of BTC, ETH, and SOL also shows medium positive correlations, but these relationships may be different, especially in macroeconomic conditions, during the period of market volatility, or specific asset catalysts, or specific asset catalysts,In the case.
in conclusion
The market has recently fluctuated. Due to the comprehensive impact of macroeconomic and cryptocurrency development, the market may continue to avoid risks and test the long -term beliefs of participants.Despite these challenges, infrastructure and applications on the chain still show toughness.In the short term to the middle period, MT. GOX creditors repaid the overcreae relief brought by the supply, the final completion of the JUMP CRYPTO liquidation, and Grayscale’s GBTC and Ethe funds outflow, which may bring opportunities for retail investors and institutional investors.Looking forward to the future, positive ETF capital flows will be important because they may indicate the continuous demand for encrypted assets and the growth of the recovery of the encrypted market, which may benefit companies such as Coinbase and promote the widespread adoption of ecosystems on the chain.
