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The BTC and cryptocurrency market are generally bullish, and the era of AI+MEME boom has arrived. Trump’s official takeover on January 20 is worth paying attention to.
Crypto Market Summary
1. The BTC and cryptocurrency market are generally bullish, but the current overall situation is in a volatile consolidation, and we need to wait for the advancement of new positive news. Trump’s official takeover on January 20 is worth paying attention to.
2. Current data shows that the copycat season has not officially arrived, and the current trend is still concentrated on BTC. As of December 31, BTC has risen 106%, ETH has risen 60.1%, and SOL has risen 84.6%.
3. The AI+Meme market will be very broad in the future. It is likely that starting from Meme, the AI Agent+Token distribution method will be coated with the entire Web3 market with AI.
4. The RWA track is also worth paying attention to, and both Binance and Coinbase expressed their optimism about RWA.
1 Market Overview
1.1 FutureMoney Group DePIN Index
The FutureMoney Group DePIN index is a DePIN high-quality combination token index built by FutureMoney, and has selected the 24 most representative DePIN projects.Compared with the last report, Index continued to pull back, down from 50.26 to 44.48, a drop of 11.5%.The reason is that the main market funds further left the market from cryptocurrencies, and BTC fell, which did not bring about the arrival of the copycat season. Most of the funds on the market chose to leave directly and exchanged them for stablecoins to wait and see.
1.2 Encrypted market data
1.2.1 Encrypted data indicators
Total cryptocurrency market value:
The current total market value of cryptocurrencies is 3.28 trillion yuan, down 9.8% from the $3.64 trillion in the first half of December, mainly due to BTC’s biggest decline since October 25.BTC continued to fall from its all-time high of $108,000, with a single-week decline of nearly 15%.After that, although BTC rebounded slightly, the bulls did not organize an effective counterattack to bring the currency price back to $100,000, which further caused a decline in market sentiment.
The BTC index rebounded slightly.
The Bitcoin Dominance Index (BTC.D) measures the share of Bitcoin’s market value in the entire cryptocurrency market and is an important indicator to evaluate market sentiment and investor preferences.When BTC.D rises, it usually means that investors are more inclined to hold Bitcoin and may seek more stable investment targets out of concerns about market risks.Conversely, the decline in BTC.D may indicate an increased investor interest in other crypto assets (altcoins), heralding a higher risk appetite.
The BTC Dominance Index (BTC) has experienced some fluctuations in the past 15 days.As of December 30, 2024, Bitcoin’s dominance was about 56.6%, a slight increase from 56% at the beginning of the month.
The Altcoin Season Index is a real-time indicator used to determine whether the current cryptocurrency market is in a season dominated by altcoins.When the index is in the range of 0-50, the smaller the number is, the more it is regarded as the BTC season. When the index is in the range of 50-100, the larger the number, the greater the possibility of the copycat season.
The current Altcoin Season Index is 47, and the previous value is 46;
The annual high point was 97 on November 4, after which, BTC entered a rapid rise channel, rapidly rising from $67,000;
The annual lowest point is 13 on September 3, which is the V-bottom of BTC’s annual ups and downs trend. After that, BTC began to enter the upward channel.
1.2.2 ETF index
BTC ETF:
Every year is a historic year for cryptocurrencies.In 2024, about US$40 billion was invested in the cryptocurrency field since the official approval of the US Bitcoin spot ETF in January; the industry investment amount reached US$13.7 billion, an increase of 28% from US$10.7 billion in 2023, but it is still the same as in 2022.There is a big gap between the $33.3 billion and the $29 billion in 2021.
As of 2024.12.30. The current total market value of the BTC ETF market is US$108.911 billion and the total turnover is US$3.37 billion.Among them, in the past seven days, BTC ETFs had a net outflow of US$388 million;
Among them, BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): On December 19, IBIT experienced a record single-day net outflow, with an amount of US$188.7 million;
Fidelity Bitcoin ETF (FBTC): During the same period, the net outflow of FBTC was approximately US$83.16 million;
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC): GBTC funds on December 19The outflow was approximately US$208.6 million;
ETH ETF:
As of December 30, 2024, the overall net inflow of ETH ETFs was US$432 million.in:
BlackRock iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA): On December 5, ETHA recorded the largest single-day capital inflow, with an amount of US$131 million;
Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW): On the same day, ETHW recorded an inflow of approximately US$16.98 million;
Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH): On the same day, ETH recorded an inflow of approximately US$12.71 million;
VanEck Ethereum ETF (ETHV): On the same day, ETHV recorded an inflow of approximately US$6.02 million.
1.3 CPI and other data and market reactions to judge the market
The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index is on par with previous value
The initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in December was 74, which is equal to the previous value and expectations, but the Consultative Chamber of Commerce consumer confidence index in December was 104.7, which is much lower than the expected 113 and the previous value 111.7.Let’s look at two key factors affecting interest rates. The initial value of the US one-year inflation rate in December was 2.8%, lower than the expected and previous value of 2.90%; the number of people who requested initial unemployment benefits in the week of December 21 was 219,000.224,000 people were lower than expected and 220,000 people were worth the previous value.According to the Federal Reserve’s November interest rate meeting, hawks cut interest rates by 25BP, Hamak voted to support no interest rate cuts; and Powell said he is in the stage of slowing down interest rate cuts.The future U.S. economy is expected to raise economic prospects and interest rate expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts will be halved next year; most officials believe that inflation risks tend to rise.
Global inflation fell, U.S. CPI fell to 2.5%
By the end of 2024, the global economy will be summarized: overall growth is stable, inflation has declined, and policies have been implemented.The IMF expects global economic growth to grow by 3.5% in 2024, mainly due to the relay of manufacturing (PMI average of 50.5% in the first half of the year) and services (the average of 53.3% in the second half of the year) that boosted the economic recovery in 2024.Inflation has fallen rapidly led by the United States and Europe, with the US CPI falling to around 2.5%, and the euro zone HICO falling to around 2%.In terms of policy, in order to cope with the previous high inflation, most central banks around the world have turned to easing one after another. Except for Japan, the United States, Europe and China have begun an active cycle of interest rate cuts.
1.4 Macro key data nodes
The macro data nodes that need to be paid attention to next week include:
1. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on January 14, 2025;
2. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) released on January 15, 2025.
In addition, on January 20, the US president was officially handed over, and Trump will officially become the US president, which may bring about a major impact on BTC and cryptocurrency trends.
2. Hot market news
The most popular narratives in Coingecko statistics are Meme, AI, and RWA. Among them, Meme coins have become the absolute focus of the market, accounting for 30.67% of investors’ attention. The recovery and continuous development of each track also show the market’sDiversity and vitality.
2.1 Industry hot spots
AI+Meme: ai16z lead representative
The ecological consensus has exploded in full swing, and ai16z has driven the general rise in AI concepts.On the last day of 2024, ai16z continues to lead the AI track to continuously break through the market value ceiling.After Shaw announced his plan to make ai16z Layer1, ai16z rose 7% within 24 hours, and its current market value has reached US$1.9 billion.In addition to ai16z itself, many concept coins around ai16z are also soaring. The current total market value of the AI+AI Meme sector is as high as US$56.6 billion.
Among them, AI Meme rose 26.52%, and AI rose 3.51%.
The emergence of GOAT has become the first Meme generated by AI dialogue on the market. This is also the first time that AI has achieved its own goals through cryptocurrencies and the Internet and learns from human behavior.Only meme coins can carry projects of such high experimental nature. At the same time, similar concept coins have sprung up like mushrooms after a rain, but most functions remain on Twitter’s automatic posting, replying, etc., without practical applications.For example, Fartcoin, Shoggoth, etc.This type of Meme is the early form of AI+Meme.
After this, the AI Agent scenes began to extend from simple interactions on social media to more valuable scenes.This includes the production of content such as music images, and there are also services such as investment analysis and fund management that are more in line with users of the currency circle. From this stage, AI Agent is separated from meme coins, thus forming a brand new track.
From the product level, AI Agent may act more as simple tool roles, such as giving investment advice and generating statements.However, fund management requires higher-level capabilities, including strategy design, dynamic adjustment and market forecasting, which marks that AI Agent is not just a tool, but begins to participate in the process of value creation.
ai16z has become the most typical representative. After Shaw, the founder of ai16z’s underlying logic, announced that he plans to make ai16z Layer 1, ai16z rose 37% in 24 hours, and its current market value has reached US$1.9 billion.and ai16z as aAI-driven on-chain funds have also derived a sub-sector (ai16z sector), such as:
Degenai: imitating the AI Agent created by well-known trader DegenSpartan, who is also a member of ai16z DAO, has risen 151% in the past seven days;
Eliza: The same name as Eliza, the frame behind ai16z.It has extremely high popularity in the current AI Agent field, up 233% in the past 7 days;
FMG believes that after AI Agent begins to implement more practical functions and has practical and effective application scenarios to interpret the logic of price support, AI Meme will usher in a new round of “breaking circles”, such as the interconnection of multi-chain ecosystems., and the combination with DeFi and DePIN in traditional tracks.Finally, a true consumer-level application driven by AI and AI Agent as the performance scenario will be formed.
RWA:
The tokenized assets in the RWA market exceeded US$100 billion in 2024, an increase of nearly three times compared with 2023.
Binance Labs made it clear in its “Outlook 2025” released on December 31 that Binance Labs’ main focus is encryption/blockchain, artificial intelligence and biotechnology, and is also happy to see innovation at the intersection of these three fields..Existing narratives like DeSci, RWA/stablecoins and AI agents should continue to perform well with strong momentum.
In addition, Coinbase also stated in its latest outlook: 1. Stablecoins are just starting; 2. RWA tokenization is expected to achieve significant growth; 3. Crypto ETFs have forever changed the supply and demand trends of cryptocurrencies; 4. The revival of DeFi will drive itEntering a new era; 5. Supervision will eventually turn from a headwind to a tailwind.
We have reason to believe that in 2025, the RWA track will be further valued. This is because the combination of Web3 and the real world has become increasingly close, and projects in the on-chain world (such as Uniswap, AAVE) are gradually becoming the interests of traditional big players.Express, and there will also be more traditional world players trying to obtain arbitrage through investment in Web2 and Web3.
It is expected that the global RWA track market size will exceed US$500 billion in 2025.Mainstream asset types will include:
Treasury bonds: Attracting more institutional investors will dominate the RWA market.
Real estate: Tokenization of commercial and residential real estate will be further popularized, providing more investment opportunities.
Commodities: Commodities such as gold and oil will achieve higher liquidity through tokenization.
At the same time, more simple and friendly platforms will be launched, allowing retail investors to easily participate in tokenized asset transactions, thereby promoting the downward and popularization of the track.
In addition, major economies such as the United States, the European Union, China, etc. are expected to launch a clearer regulatory framework in the RWA field.For example, the United States will make it clear that countries such as Treasury bond tokenization, China, and Singapore will continue to promote the integration of RWA and the traditional financial system, and attract innovative projects through regulatory sandboxes.
We predict that in 2025, the RWA track will gradually enter the maturity stage from the early experimental stage and become one of the core areas of blockchain technology application.
2.2 Potential project exploration
2.2.1 AIPool: a fully AI-driven token issuance platform based on TEE environment
About AIPool:
AIPool is an AI Agent autonomous coin issuance project based on the Eliza framework called @Skely user (an active member of ai6z DAO).In this project, users inject funds into the address of the AI Agent, and the AI Agent will make its own decisions and issue tokens. Even the naming of tokens will be decided independently by the AI.
AIPool working mechanism:
AIPool is similar to Pump.fun in the token issuance process, but AIPool uses TEE technology to generate private keys independently and store private keys independently. Any signature can only be executed by AI in the TEE environment, so it can avoid the dealer from the root.The phenomenon of donations running away; secondly, AIPool uses TEE technology to realize the interaction between internal and external chains in the TEE environment through Phala contracts, and realize offline computing.Driven by fully AI, AIPool will add artificial influence in the project operation process and open a DAO governance system to allow AI and people to jointly manage the development of the project.
AIPool release performance:
AIPool issued its first AI Agent token METAV on the same day. The market value rose to US$96 million after opening three hours, and it is currently facing a large-scale decline. Its current price is 0.052 and its market value is about US$52 million.
At present, the issuance mechanism of AIPool has caused heated discussion. AIPool still exposes many problems in the fundraising and issuance of METAV projects, such as the fundraising cycle is not clearly isolated. After the fundraising is over, community users can still transfer coins to AI addresses.Many users who donated during the fundraising period also did not receive tokens.
Outlook: As a new thing, we should give more tolerance.The AIPool officials also showed a positive attitude towards the problem. ai16z developer community focEliza updated the verifiable log of TEE AI agent, allowing users to directly view and verify the operations of the AI Agent.
2.2.2 Spore.fun: Tokens backed by Phala and ai16z can be reproduced and issued platform
About Spore.fun:
Spore.fun is a Pump.fun product that adopts the Eliza framework and combines TEE technology. It is essentially an AI Meme distribution platform.
Spore.fun working mechanism:
The biggest feature of the Spore.fun platform is that it builds an ecological environment composed of AI agents on the platform. Different agents can incubate and breed new agents and issue tokens.According to the operating mechanism of Spore.fun, each AI Agent can be started from Pump.fun, and once the market value reaches $500,000 and enters the Raydium fund pool, you can obtain “reproduction” qualification.However, to ensure its autonomous operation, the agent needs to lease a TEE server powered by the Phala Network to ensure that its operations are performed under independent and controlled conditions.
Spore.fun Innovation:
In the early stage of the issuance of Spore.fun, the platform will airdrop two tokens tokens to SPORE holders, namely adam and eve. These two tokens are the paternal and matriarchal AI roles of the Spore.fun platform.
Adam and Eva are two AI Agents that the platform has created themselves.Both will continue to incubate their own offspring Agent.Adam and Eve represent two different token issuance ideas respectively.
Adam Line: Pure Pump.fun mode, competing for more funds to enter through cruel PvP competition.
Eve line: After the community votes to select the project, it uses the AIPool model to issue tokens.
In essence, Spore.fun is equivalent to automating the emergence of new plates on Pump.fun, achieving unlimited deposits through infinite splits and survival of the fittest.
In addition, the new tokens on the Spore platform will constantly refresh their smart contracts before they are officially launched. Users can only determine the token name that will be launched soon, but they cannot lock the corresponding smart contract address (in fact, smart contracts are constantly refreshed through AI.The AI Agent can completely avoid all users’ rush to start. If a user has bought the current address, the AI will automatically change the new contract address).
III. Regulatory environment
3.1 Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer outlines six principles to the US SEC, urging it to adopt prudent crypto-regulatory approach
On January 1, Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty outlined six key principles on New Year’s Eve, urging the U.S. SEC to adopt a prudent crypto-regulation approach:
The SEC only has jurisdiction over securities transactions;The sale of gold bars with contractual rights, ownership or gold mining interests may be a securities transaction;Selling the same gold bar without after-sales rights or obligations is just for sale of assets, and the SEC has no right to supervise;The SEC’s jurisdiction will not be expanded based on selfish views that it believes are more “should” disclose;Tokens are by no means securities, although they can become the subject of securities trading;The concept that tokens can “evolve” from securities to non-securities is a fictional fallacy with no legal basis.
3.2 US Powell: The Federal Reserve does not intend to include BTC in the balance sheet
On December 19, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell told a press conference after the interest rate meeting that the Federal Reserve does not intend to include Bitcoin on its balance sheet.”We are not allowed to own Bitcoin,” Powell said. “The Federal Reserve Act stipulates what the Fed can have and the Fed does not seek to change. This is a matter that Congress should consider, but the Fed does not want to amend the law.”
On the 18th, Bitcoin Magazine reported that the Bitcoin Policy Institute drafted an executive order for President Trump to make a strategic reserve of Bitcoin.
3.3 German regulators order Worldcoin to delete human eye biometric data
German regulator Bavaria’s Data Protection Supervision Office ordered Worldcoin’s human verification program to delete biometric data collected by scanning the eyeball.Worldcoin said it had changed processes and the findings of German regulators “major” involved “outdated operations and technologies that have been replaced in 2024”.
In response, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said measures have been taken in the past few months to alleviate concerns among regulators, including switching to systems where Worldcoin no longer stores biometric data.To comply with GDPR requirements, the iris codes used to verify personal World IDs will no longer be stored, and the iris codes collected previously will be voluntarily deleted, ensuring that the personal data used to operate the World IDs will not be retained.
The data in this article comes from: Coinglass,Rootdata, Coinmarketmap, X
