jakiro
Author: Crypto_Painter Source: X,@CryptopAinter_x
These days I saw a lot of remarks about the “shutdown price is the bottom”, and then I sent a special discussion with everyone, and I got a lot of discussions, so I decided to study it.BTC’s miner economics!
Warning: The content involved in this article is a bit obscure. It is recommended to see it slowly. I will try my best to simplify the complex issues;
If you are familiar with the mathematical principles of the bottom layer of mining, it is recommended to start with the second part;
one,Before discussing the miners, it is best to first know the underlying logic of BTC mining;
The following are several key terms. Understanding that they can understand the mathematical logic behind mining, we from easy to difficult, take it slowly;
The essence of A.BTC and its blockchain;
Everyone who do speculative transactions every day must not have a few functions that really care about BTC and blockchain? After all, everyone cares about the price of price …
First of all, the invention of BTC is essentially used to transmit value (transfer), and the block network behind it is used to ensure the transmission value process to realize the security, stability, and non -tampering of the decentralization.
The design of the blockchain,In essence is a “distributed bookkeeping system”, Synchronous accounting completed by all miners on the chain;
B. Block;
The content of the bookkeeping will be packaged in the “block”. For example, I transfer to you 10 BTCs, and you transfer to me 2 BTCs. These transfer information is the most important part of the block;
And each block is actually a long string, including the head, bill information, timestamp, andRandom number;
These blocks generate the speed every 10 minutes to form a blockchain;
C. Miner;
In order to enable this network to run stable, Satoshi Nakamoto designed rewards for the people who pack the blocks. The reward is divided into “transfer fees”+”block reward”.
But there is a problem here, that is, when each block is packaged, only one person can get a reward. When the handling fee is very low, everyone wants block rewards. So who should it be given?
So there is a competitive mechanism of “workload certificate”;
D. Workload proof POW;
What are you doing when mining machine mining? The answer is “guessing numbers”;
The BTC uses the SHA256 algorithm for encryption. In short, all transfer information and block information are converted into a string of numbers with a length of 256 bytes through the SHA256 algorithm, such as 0000000 … 1101000010;
The previous n -digital number of this string of numbers is 0, and the latter numbers represent the digitalization of block information (both the letters or characters can be digitized);
What the miners need to do are very simple, that is, by constantly trying random numbers and bringing into the hash function of SHA256 to make reverse attempts;
But the algorithm principle of the SHA256 is destined to be a process that can only find the answer by repeating repeated attempts without any shortcuts (except quantum calculation);
So most of the mining machines are trying and error most of the time. Because the random number of each block in the head is unknown, the mining machine needs to be verified one by one. In this process, the greater the computing power held by the miners.The more mines, the more likely it is to try that correct answer to obtain the right to pack the block;
Therefore, the workload proves that POW is not essentially not the entire computing power of the mining machine provides these tasks for the block network, but only a very small part is really used for accounting.In the end, they are doing the work of “inner rolls” and “competition” with other mining machines;
E. Mining difficulty;
Remember the number of the front n position in the block number string 0? The n here is the difficulty of mining. The difficulty mechanism of Satoshi Nakamoto is to ensure that one block is produced every 10 minutes.Value will increase;
Because the same guessing numbers, the less 0 the previous 0, the easier it is to guess it, and the more 0, the more difficult the conditional random number is, the time interval between the outlet will increase;
To continuously adjust the value of N through the network, the BTC block network can achieve the result of the overall stability of the block frequency;
Furthermore, when the computing power of the entire network is improved to a very high level, the difficulty of mining will also increase accordingly. If your mine occupies 33%of the computing power of the entire network before, then you get the power of the power every 10 minutes.The probability is 33%;
And when the computing power of the entire network rises, the probability of getting a reward will decrease;
Starting from this logic, you will find that in the mining industry of the entire BTC, almost everyone and all mining machines are eventually competing with each other for each 10 minutes;
This is the beginning of the power war war;
F. Half half
Everyone must know that because one block is produced every 10 minutes, and every 210,000 blocks are designed, the block reward will be halved, so on average,
However, in this process, because the difficulty adjustment is not real -time, there will always be a slight gap between the interval between the outlet, especially when the computing power grows for a long time, the next half of the time will be slightly advanced;
After halving, the profit of the miners will be halved. It sounds that the miners must be sad, but in fact, due to the existence of the market supply and demand principle, the supply is halved. The demand based on this layer of logic is unchanged.The rise, and the computing power of the miners is based on Moore’s Law, and it will also maintain growth, so in the end, the benefits of the miners will not change much after half;
Of course, miners who do not update mining machines and do not increase composition power will definitely be halved …
After talking about the previous situation, you can talk about the logic of supply and demand under the economics of miners.
2. The underlying supply and demand logic of the miners;
First of all, it is clear that what is the core demand of miners’ mining?
I think there is only one answer to this question: make money!
In the ancient period of BTC, I believe there will be people who run the mining machine, such as “for the stability of the BTC network”, but to this day, I can be sure that all people or companies who are running at the mining machine are only one “Make money “or” earning coins. “
If you agree with this, you can continue to look down;
Based on the default prerequisites of this market, we can know that all miners are the party to create supply for this market. They are the producers of BTC and network maintenanceers;
Regardless of the trading behavior of the early giant whales or retail institutions, from the perspective of online supply and demand, only the miners in this market are sellers, and the rest are buyers;
Therefore, the role of both sides of the supply and demand can be determined. As long as you are not miners, for the BTC market, you are the demander, and as long as you are a miner, then you are the supplier;
Once again, there is no buying and selling under market transaction behavior. I am an analysis conclusion that I simply do from the perspective of the supply and demand of the miner;
Next, we can start with the early BTC market to understand the price trend in this history;
Phase 1: The ancient times of BTC (2010-2014);
The main feature of this stage is that there are no convenient trading platforms. The mining groups are mainly concentrated in “geeks”, “early builders” and extremely rare “foresight”.
Needless to doubt, in the era when you only need antique laptops to minify, 50 BTC rewards every 10 minutes can make you the so -called giant whale today in a short period of time:
However, people holding these BTCs are not speculative, but early participants with some idealist concepts, so their selling behavior is rare (except buying pizza) and buying.There are relatively few behaviors;
This has led to the poor liquidity of BTC’s secondary market. Some people are willing to buy, the price will skyrocket, and if some people are willing to sell, they will plummet;
As shown in the figure:
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In 2010, the recorded BTC prices appeared 50%of the declines, 284 times the increase of 284 times, and a 94%decline;
At this time, the seller in the entire BTC market was only miners, and the buyer was also optimistic about the long -term holders of risk investment because of the promising future of this technology and the network. At that time, the price of BTC was below $ 100 for a long time;
At this stage, it continued until 2014, that is, the price of BTC exceeded 1,000 US dollars for the first time, and brought a lot of media and folk attention.
It can be seen that in the past 4 years, due to the very few supply and demand relationship of the market, the process of gradually increasing demand has occurred, and a very exaggerated bull market has appeared.Increase;
But it is also this exaggerated increase that overdraws part of the potential of the subsequent bull market;
Phase 2: BTC enters the folk (2014-2018);
At present, most of the elderly people in the currency circle we have learned are contacting BTC at this stage, and BTC mining really changes from niche industries to a industry, which is also realized in this cycle;
After the closure of Mentougou, the secondary exchange began to appear gradually, which has brought great improvements to the liquidity of the BTC, but there are still very few people who invest in the half -cycle theory. At this stageThe time period of the field;
For example, the crazy cow in 2017 was a big reason for the popularity of BTC in South Korea and the tension of North Korea and South Korea.
At this stage, the miners have issued a scale. The golden development period of Bitmain has started in 2014, but at this time most miners are mainly folk nature.Mainly small startups;
At the same time, BTC’s Hash Rate has soared from 0.005eh/s to 14eh/s in these 4 years, turning 2800 times!
These large increase in computing power are no longer a believer and a network maintenanceer like stage 1.
Therefore, the BTC market felt the throwing pressure from the miners for the first time, which led to the high point of the bull market (US $ 20,000) at the stage 2 at the previous round of 1,000 US dollars, which only increased by 20 times …
From the perspective of supply and demand, because the demand party of stage 2 is still from private and personal funds, the supplier has transformed from the early miners who did not sell to new miners with profitable targets.The shortcomings, but this establishment of the bull market in 2017 is the most rich bull market in BTC history;
From the perspective of the increase ratio, although stage 2 comparison stage 1 is severely shrinking, from the perspective of price base, the significance of this round of the market is very great! It has the foundation for the subsequent stage of institutions;
Phase 3: BTC enters the institutional market (2018-2022);
This stage is a stage that most people know. BTC has successively obtained the layout of some investment institutions since 2019. After the epidemic in 2020, Wall Street began to enter the market, including listed companies (Tesla), and of.Hedge funds, investment institutions, etc., the entry of Wall Street has caused obvious correlation between BTC and US stocks;
With the unprecedented large water release in the Federal Reserve, a round of buffalo came into being. Compared with the historical high ($ 20,000) at the stage 2, the proportion of the price high at the stage 3 severely shrunk again, only more than three times ..Then, then
During this period, the computing power of BTC climbed from 14EH/S to 200EH/s, which was 14 times, and the mining subject gradually converted from a personal small workshop -like miner to a large -scale mining company.Yes, the geographical location of the computing power has also shifted from China with cheap electricity prices to the United States with relatively high electricity prices.
The market from the market is not much different from previously. Small miners and large mining companies have an irresistible reasons in terms of “selling coins”.After the emergence of enterprises, the competitiveness of small mining companies has gradually declined due to this financing channel for listing.
Because large -scale mining companies can obtain a large amount of financing from the secondary market and the stock market, these funds can ensure that these mining companies can have sufficient funds to complete the update of mining machines even if they do not sell BTC.For small mining companies of funds, more and more computing power has been monopolized by these giants, and the living conditions are gradually deteriorating;
However, from a macro perspective, whether large companies or small enterprises, the final profit channel is still from the price increase from BTC, that is, although large -scale mining companies do not need to sell coins in the bear market to return funds, they eventually need to be in a certain one in a certain one.After all, as companies, as companies, they must eventually have income.
As shown in the figure:
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In stage 3, before and after the market price of the BTC market, there are always large miningers flowing into the exchanges;
Phase 4: After BTC compliance (2022 to this day);
In the past two years, I will not analyze the summary. After the BTC spot ETF is passed in 2023, the operating logic of the overall secondary market has been highly similar to the US stocks, but the impact of the miners still exists. The picture above clearly explains very clearlyquestion;
从2021年的顶部开始算，BTC的全网算力从200EH/s攀升至了742EH/s，翻了3倍多，但新高价格相对顶部来说，仅仅高出了7%…当然，This is just the current state. After all, it is difficult to say whether the BTC bull market is over.
If the law is based on the law of 4 years, BTC really built the time when it should be built in 2025-2026.
However, at the moment, the relatively high -level hash rate and the relatively increased price of new highs are as far as the trend of more monks and less porridge.
At this stage, the main suppliers of the market are no longer simply miners. Due to the accumulation of time and low chips, early buyers and holders holding low chips will also become potential supply.The circulation status, the proportion of unsched BTCs that have not been excavated are already small;
Although the supplier has increased new power, the demander is the same. The passing of ETFs brings a strong buying, but these demand is completely different from those who have a coin -hoarding belief in the early stage. Both sides of the current market have available parties in the market.The common goal is to make money;
From this perspective, we can guess that BTC seems to have officially ended the “early stage” of most assets or industrial development. The era of barbaric growth may be ended with ETF, that is, the end of the ultimate demand party;
In the next 10 years, BTC is more likely to become a new type of assets with both US stocks and gold asset attributes at the same time, that is, it is affected by the global financial market, and the other side is affected by the macro monetary policy;
In the early days, the vision of the pure asset network independent of the traditional financial world had disappeared. From this level, Nakamoto’s ideal was really shattered.
The above is the recurrence of the historical structure of BTC in the past 14 years from the perspective of supply and demand, combining the development of the miner group. With these knowledge, we can discuss the final problem of this article;
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3. Does miners’ shutdown price affect the market?
The answer is: there is no impact.
If you finish reading all the long texts above, you will conclude the same conclusion that the closing price of the miner has no substantial impact on the market price, but the market price should slowly affect the closing price of the miners;
Let’s give an example:
Suppose the price of BTC is 100,000 US dollars, and the average closing price of the miners is $ 50,000. At this time, the miners make money, expand their investment, increase computing power, and roll each other.The starting N will be getting bigger and bigger;
As the difficulty increases, large -scale mining companies with a faster growth rate of computing power are not affected, but small mining companies with slower computing power will face the pressure of decreased revenue, because the overall computing power of the nominance has increased.As the growth rate of its own computing power as the molecule, the growth rate of the denominator will lead to a decline in income.
The decline in income is not terrible. The terrible thing is that with the same time, the price of the currency fell to $ 70,000. Block rewards decreased the decline in superposition prices. Under the influence of dual factors, small mining companies’ income will decline.
After the income is reduced, the expenditure has not been reduced, because this process needs to find a way to expand the computing power, otherwise it will form a vicious circle. Therefore, small mining companies can only start by buying new mining machines or optimizing electricity bills and reducing maintenance expenses. ThisThe process still needs funds, what should I do?
So you can only sell coins.
Large -scale mining companies do not need it. First of all, its own computing power has grown the fastest. Secondly, most of them belong to listed companies and have good financing channels to support. Therefore, their income will only be affected by the decline in currency prices.
Besides, small mining companies may lead to further decline in the price of currency prices due to their selling. Of course, the impact of this level may be very small. We assume what macro reasons have caused the currency price to further fall.
Subsequently, the price fell to $ 48,000, and the average closing price of a large number of small miners was triggered, so they had to shut down. Because the shutdown caused a large amount of computing power to disappear, the BTC network will automatically decrease.
When the difficulty decreases, the probability of obtaining block rewards under the same computing power will increase. In terms of statistically, the income will increase, so the shutdown price will be moved down;
Assuming that the price will fall further, the same logic will take effect, and more old mining machines will be forced to shut down, and the difficulty will decrease further. Therefore, the shutdown price has further declined.Follow the market price after falling, and slightly higher;
We will find that in this special process, it is not that the shutdown price affects the market price, but the market price affects the shutdown price;
Besides another question: After the price falls below the average closing price of the miner, the miners will choose to buy coins directly instead of mining?
This logic has two sides. For small mining companies, the ultimate goal of their mining coins is to sell coins to make money.
But if you are an institution or rich man holding a large amount of cash, if you want to configure BTC for a long time, and do not want to buy a high -priced BTC, then self -built mining factories can ensure that this investment can bring stability for a long timeThe BTC return, when the shutdown price is broken, buying coins directly will become a more cost -effective choice, so there will be a certain market demand at this time;
For small mining companies that are mainly profitable, if they still have money in their hands, they should buy mining machines with lower shutdown prices instead of buying coins. For miners, the reason for choosing mining is because BTC historyMost of the time, the price is higher than the average closing price of the miners, so mining can get a chip below the average market cost.
In other words, mining is essentially a long -term arbitrage strategy;
4. The last question: What is the shutdown price?
If you have discussed with me before, you will find that the shutdown price itself is a difficult value. From the perspective of the mine owner, the shutdown price of a mining machine is affected by various factors affected by various factors.;;
1. Electricity;
2. Maintenance costs;
3. The cost of engineer personnel:
4.BTC network difficulty;
5. Depreciation of mining machine equipment;
There are many factors I don’t know much. If you are a miner, welcome to add, but the theme I want to express is that the average closing price of each mine is different, and the shutdown price provided by the miners isThe bottom of the market price is actually very difficult.
Rather than paying attention to the market’s shutdown price, it is better to pay attention to whether the entire network computing power of BTC has declined significantly;
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In this picture, the computing power of the entire network in the past two -round cycle has significantly declined in the past two -round cycle. Except for the reduction of half and the Chinese government’s clear retreat, you will find that in most cases, the price of the currency has fallen (the marketThe reason), the computing power then began to decline;
This also confirms the logic above. Only when the computing power decreases, the difficulty will decrease, which will lead to a decline in the average shutdown price.
Since everyone’s shutdown price is different, the logic of judging the bottom based on the shutdown price is naturally unreasonable.
