jakiro
Author: hyphin Source: onchaintimes Translation: Shan Oppa, Bitchain Vision
“This has never been a temporary craze, the meme supercycle has arrived. We are being led to the promised land. In the new paradigm, there is no retracement.” – Everyone who posted the memecoin price forecast on Twitter.
introduction
Since we last discussed memecoin in March this year, the total market value and market attention in this field have maintained steady growth, with no obvious signs of stagnation.This undoubtedly makes memecoin the fastest “horse” on the field.
This phenomenon is mainly attributed to the natural viral nature of memecoin (via social media), extremely low barriers to participation, and the ever-emerging new narratives that maintain speculator enthusiasm.Although many projects fail to attract attention for the long term, market participants have become accustomed to frequently switching short-term trends to profit from them while maintaining greater loyalty to investment targets with higher belief value.Even with the fact that some people are reluctant to admit, the possibility of a proven meme token being fully zeroed in the current market is much lower than people expecting an asset that is completely dependent and has no substantial utility.
Although Solana is not the only driving force behind the growth of these tokens’ total market capitalization, memecoin’s main activity does occur in the “trenches” of its on-chain ecosystem.Therefore, this article will focus on the Solana chain, trying to see the full picture of its memecoin ecology from a more macro perspective.
Respect the rise
With the memecoin incubation platform native to Solanapump.funWith the birth of the local market, the dynamics of the local market have undergone significant changes.Participating in speculative tokens has become easier, cheaper, and safer than ever (from a security perspective).With a user-friendly interface, standardized token deployment simplifies the process, giving anyone the opportunity to create new tokens without technical expertise while eliminating potential vulnerabilities in malicious smart contracts.
Once memecoin is generated in the platform, it can be traded directly in the platform’s internal market and automatically deployed to Raydium after reaching a market capitalization of approximately $69,000.However, most tokens failed to meet this threshold and eventually failed to be released.
Of about 100 tokens, only one is able to “graduate” from the “university” of pump.fun.Saturated markets and limited liquidity are the reasons for some of these failures (the specific reasons are not within the scope of this article).
Faced with such challenges, successful breakthrough projects must have eye-catching creativity or uniqueness in order to attract speculators in the trenches.Nevertheless, the agreement quickly established its position as the preferred platform for trading micromarket cap tokens and launching new projects, far exceeding other similar platforms.
As of now, its share in the deployment market is as high as 71.9%, demonstrating the wide popularity and far-reaching impact of this application.Recent progress has further promoted its mainstreaming, attracting a large number of new users from TikTok, who have the dream of “get rich overnight” and have added more fuel to this “fire”.
All roads lead to Raydium
Whether it is a secret issuance, pump.fun tokens or pre-sale tokens, most of the liquidity pools of memecoin are concentrated in Raydium.The influx of memecoin not only expanded the market size, but also made this decentralized exchange one of the main driving forces for Solana’s current on-chain trading volume.
In the gold rush, those who sell shovels are often the biggest winners.The same principle applies to the memecoin ecology.Regardless of memecoin’s performance, platforms that support trading activities benefit from the surge in trading volume.According to common sense and market observation, memecoin that can truly stand out is only a few, and most of them are destined to be obscured in the market.This view can be verified by observing the market value distribution of all existing trading pairs.
In view of the lack of efficient annotation tools for data providers, in the analysis, we filtered tokens with non-zero liquidity in all Raydium liquidity pools as of November 25, 2024, excluding the official token list and legal in CoinGeckoproject.Finally, 493,203 liquidity pools and 474,161 unique tokens were obtained, which will serve as the basis for subsequent analysis.
Most active token market capitalizations are concentrated in the range of $100 to $10,000, showing a more obvious peak distribution.The chart shows a right-biased distribution curve, with a gradual decline in the tail – fewer tokens with higher market caps, suggesting that maintaining moderate market caps is a challenge in an attention-driven environment.
Analysis of tokens from pump.fun separately from tokens deployed directly to Raydium helps reveal patterns in the overall distribution, and the unique performance of both.
Pump dot Fun
It should be noted that tokens on the Pump dot Fun platform must pass a certain market capitalization threshold to obtain liquidity pool support.This means that they are usually given higher valuations in the initial stages due to higher liquidity supply, with market capitalization usually concentrated in the range of $5,000 to $15,000.However, most of the successfully “graduated” tokens have difficulty maintaining or exceeding their previous valuations after they have moved to Raydium.These tokens account for a higher proportion of the medium-cap range (hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars in the early stages).This reflects that the platform’s deployment process filters out unattractive memes to a certain extent, and the community can also use the visibility or potential energy accumulated by tokens on the platform as a booster for further development.
Direct deployment
A significant dense distribution can still be observed in tokens with low market cap ranges (hundreds to thousands of dollars), indicating that many small, less popular tokens have difficulty getting significant attention.This may be related to the saturation of the market, the timing of these tokens being introduced to the market, or the lack of clear narrative, creativity, and promotion on Twitter.Although almost undetectable in the data, there are also some super high market capitalization memes that are listed on multiple centralized exchanges and predate the creation of the Pump dot Fun platform.
The views mentioned above are verified from the continued low aggregation of token market value in the data center.Although weak trends and the bursting of speculative bubbles are huge challenges for every token, the misaligned incentives have greatly accelerated the rapid collapse and death of many memecoin.In this field, pseudo-anonymous scammers and “developers” with malicious intentions have little to bear, which effectively makes public fraud a normal state, leading to many seemingly promising projects dead in their fetal wombs.middle.
After in-depth research, it was found that a considerable number of tokens were deliberately designed to fail in order to extract the maximum value from unprepared speculators.This threat always exists, posing potential risks to investors who are brave enough to participate in the market.In the past 30 days alone, almost two-thirds of the tokens sold in large quantities within 24 hours of issuance, with more than 90% of liquidity evaporating.For most tokens, it is almost impossible to recover after such a catastrophic event during the formation period.However, occasionally, some angry holders try to regain lost momentum through community takeover, create new social media accounts, and start over with stubbornness or even revenge.Although the results of such attempts are often disappointing, if done properly, it may provide supporters with a good exit opportunity.
in conclusion
Solana’s memecoin ecosystem is both dynamic and unpredictable, characterized by endless creativity, wanton speculation, and always-present risk of exploitation.Platforms such as Pump dot Fun and Raydium have become the center of this booming ecosystem, providing opportunities for participants and also challenges.Although the rapid rise of a few tokens that stand out has ignited the dream of “get rich overnight”, the sober reality is that most memecoins have difficulty maintaining their initial momentum and ultimately leave a shattered hope.
One thing is clear in this ever-evolving speculative craze: Careful due diligence is crucial.In a world where virality often outweighs intrinsic value, whether curious observers or active participants, surviving in this niche market requires keen trend insights and commitment to “get rich easily”a firm skepticism.
