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Source: GrayScale; Compilation: White Water, Bit Chain Vision Realm
summary
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With the market’s attention to the US elections, Bitcoin rose in October.Public opinion surveys show that the White House’s competition is very fierce, but the changes in financial assets and the implicit odds of forecasting markets show that investors now believe that Trump’s chances of winning are higher.
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Bitcoin Exchange Trading Products (ETP) has a large amount of net inflows this month [1], although some new demand may reflect the pairing transaction of hedge funds (they may do more Bitcoin ETP and short Bitcoin futures).
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Cross -encrypted and artificial intelligence technology continues to bring deep development, including promoting independent chat robots of MEMECOIN.Although people are easy to ignore them due to the fun of these projects, they show that blockchain technology can become an effective tool for intermediary economic value between humans, artificial intelligence agents and network physics equipment.
American voters will vote on Tuesday, November 5th, and this election is expected to have a significant impact on the digital asset industry.Despite the public opinion survey, the White House elections are fiercely competitive, but investors’ expectations seem to have shifted to the victory of former President Trump in the past month.For example, at the end of September, the odds of Polymarket based on the blockchain prediction market showed that Vice President Harris was slightly better than Trump at the time (about background information, please refer to PolyMarket: Cryptocurrency’s election annual breakthrough application).However, by the end of October, Polymarket’s presidential election market shows that Trump’s probability of winning is 65%(Figure 1).The prediction market is not foolproof. Harris may win the election, but investors’ expectations for Trump’s victory seem to have promoted the development of the asset market in the past month.
Figure 1: The predicted market believes that the chance of Trump’s victory is higher
Whether the financial market is in pricing Trump’s victory is higher, it can only be indirectly inferred, but GrayScale Research believes that the October cross -asset return is consistent with the “Trump Trading” (Figure 2).From a macro perspective, the appreciation of the US dollar and the depreciation of the renminbi may reflect the increase in people’s awareness of tariff risks.Similarly, bond yields have risen (bond prices fall), and gold prices have risen, which may reflect the expectations of budget deficit and inflation during President Trump’s term.Bitcoin appreciated 9.6%in the month, which is one of the assets that perform well after risk adjustment.The former president shows great enthusiasm on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, so its appreciation may reflect expectations of the regulatory environment that is beneficial to Bitcoin.In addition, Bitcoin, like gold, may respond to potential macro policy changes during President Trump’s term.
Figure 2: Bitcoin is one of the assets that performed well in October
The results of the US election may have a significant impact on the digital asset industry.The next president and Congress may modify the tax and expenditure policies that affect the wider financial market through legislation on cryptocurrencies.GrayScale Research believes,The changes in the control of the Senate may be particularly important for cryptocurrencies because the Senate plays an important role in confirming the president’s appointment of key regulatory agencies, such as the chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Commission (CFTC).However, at the level of voters, data shows that cryptocurrencies are a problem that two parties care about, and the proportion of Democrats holds Bitcoin is slightly higher than Republicans.[2] In addition, the specific candidates of the two parties have expressed support for cryptocurrency innovation.No matter which political party is in power, Grayscale Research believes thatComprehensive two -party legislation may be the best long -term solution in the US digital asset industryEssence
In October, the demand for trading products (ETP), which is listed in the US spot in the United States.As of October 31, the total net inflow was +5.3 billion US dollars, which was higher than the +13 billion US dollars in September, the highest level since February.Since the launch of the existing Bitcoin ETP in January, the total net inflow has reached +24.2 billion US dollars, and the US ETP currently holds about 5%of the total Bitcoin supply.
The net inflow of the spot ETP this year may cause upward pressure on the price of Bitcoin.However, this relationship may not be one -to -one, partly because hedge fund transactions are becoming more and more popular.Specifically, hedge funds (or other mature/institutional investors) may buy Bitcoin ETP and sell Bitcoin futures worth US dollars.The strategy is designed to profit from the differences between spot and futures prices, and sometimes called Bitcoin “base difference transactions” or “arbitrage transactions”.[3] Since the strategy involves the purchase of Bitcoin (via ETP) and selling Bitcoin (through futures), it should not have a significant impact on the market price of Bitcoin.
At present, there is no exact measurement standard for such activities, but a report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) states that since the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETP in January, some hedge funds [4] have cleaned its Bitcoin futures.The head inch increased by nearly $ 5 billion.[5] According to this estimate, Grayscale Research believes thatAmong the US $ 24.2 billion net inflows listed in the United States this year, about 5 billion U.S. dollars may be paired spot/futures, so it may not be promoted to appreciate the price appreciation of Bitcoin(Figure 3).
Figure 3: Hedge fund may match the multi -header of Bitcoin ETP with the short head inch of futures
Although the price of Bitcoin rose sharply in October, the returns of other encrypted market sectors are lacking.For example, the encryption industry market index (CSMI) (the comprehensive index developed by FTSE/Russell) fell about 6%(Figure 4).The worst -performance market sector is the public cause and service encryption industry.This diversified encryption industry includes many tokens related to decentralized AI technology. Some of the tokens have fallen this month after the rise of this year, including FET, TAO, Render, and AR.[6]
Figure 4: Public utilities and services lag behind other cryptocurrencies industries
Although the valuation of some tokens has fallen, decentralized artificial intelligence themes are still the leading focus of the cryptocurrency market.[7] We believe that this is largely due to the use of the “artificial intelligence agent” of the “artificial intelligence agent” of the blockchain -software that can understand the goals and make independent decisions.
A key emerging character is Truth Terminal, an artificial intelligence chat robot created by researcher Andy Ayrey.Chat robots have an account on X (previous Twitter) and interact with other X users (that is, no input of Andy).In this case, innovation is that Truth Terminal said that he is interested in creating Memecoin $ Goat, and then stores the new Memecoin into the associated blockchain address.[8] Once I have the ownership of Memecoin, Truth Terminal will take measures to promote the token from their social media fans.Due to people’s extensive interest in this story, related Memecoin appreciated about 9 times [9], which led many people to call Truth Terminal “the first artificial intelligence agent millionaire.”Although this project deliberately humorous and relaxed, it shows that artificial intelligence agents can understand economic incentives and can use blockchain to send and receive value.Other innovative projects are making breakthroughs in the joint artificial intelligence agency, and there are many cases in the future.[10]
Although these are still in the early stages, the latest wave of decentralized artificial intelligence applications may be one of the promises of blockchain technology in a practical way: it can be used as the core financial infrastructure in the future, and it needs to be in human and artificial intelligence agentsAnd the value intermediary between possible physical equipment.We believe,Compared with traditional payment infrastructure, using blockchain without permission can become a better way to accumulate and transfer resources for artificial intelligence agents.
The US election on November 5 may lead the encryption and traditional financial markets in the short term.The digital asset industry is facing important issues, and the results of the White House and the Congress may affect the development of the United States to a certain extent.At the same time, we are encouraging for the ownership of the two -party parties of digital assets, the many macro trends used by Bitcoin, and the recent technological breakthroughs (especially in the cross -area of cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence).therefore,Regardless of the results of the election next week, we are optimistic that cryptocurrencies will continue to develop in the United States.
Reference information
[1] Source: Bloomberg.
[2]>https://www.grayscale.com/globalassets/harris-poll/grayscale-crypto-elearch-report.pdf
[3] For example, the November CME Bitcoin futures contract is currently about 10%higher than the price of Bitcoin.When the futures contract expires, the two prices need to be the same.Therefore, this structure can be returned at the same time at the same time.
[4] The report is called “leverage fund”.
[5] Source: CFTC trader holding position (COT).
[6]ArtemisEssenceIn order to explain the purpose, the selected example is large AI -related assets calculated based on market value and major negative contributions to the public cause and service industry in October 2024.
[7] Kaito
[9] Source: Artemis.Back from October 13th to October 31st, 2024.
[10]>CointelegraphandOlas
