jakiro
Author: Eric SJ, Independent Researcher Source: X, @sjbtc9
This article about Vitalik’s current L2 pattern is briefly discussed. I found that although Taiko has a bad reputation in the community, he has named him several times.
Based on the phenomenon described in this article, I think that the final pattern of L2 may not be dominated by the main L2 as previously assumed, but towards overall equalization
Therefore, with the continuous launch of the new L2, it will certainly be helpful for the diversification of the ecological market, but this stage may not be a suitable track for secondary market investors.
Why? In fact, it’s just one sentence: “Don’t go against the policy”
Take 2 examples
1. The liquid pledge track has a “policy red line” of 33%. This is not only related to personal will, but also to the argument of whether it is decentralized. Therefore, the ceiling of the business scale of liquid pledge is actually limited.
(And as the downstream track undertaken by the business, there is no such red line restrictions)
2. As the business track of each chain, DEX is also a fully competitive competitive landscape. According to incomplete statistics, there are more than 1,300 DEXs, which can be said to be the largest intra-converter in the industry.Raceway
(You can imagine that in the secondary market, the fault tolerance rate we can choose in this sector is actually quite low)
Then L2 actually has the two track characteristics above
(1) Guiding ideology of the large basic platform – diversification
(2) Large number, full competition
It is hard to deny that some of the current development directions of Ether are more affected by the will of an individual or a certain subject, so the multi-rollup pattern can be said to be a trend with a high probability
By continuously expanding the execution layer, the Ethernet main chain can better play the role of the consensus (security) layer
In the future, a multi-rollup ecosystem with the Ethernet main network consensus as its independent core has been formed. Now, applications on the original chain have gradually begun to develop towards application of Rollup (ENS has recently proposed to expand to L2)
At present, nearly 200 items have not been launched and those that have been launched have been added, but the liquidity of the market is temporarily fixed: when the traffic flow is fixed, the lanes are constantly spreading, and there are too many spaces for traffic selection.
Therefore, based on the above logic, derivation may be the second half of this cycle L2 competition upstream of Rollup construction.
For example, OP’s super chain framework and ALT’s modular Rollup construction both belong to this category (ARB’s Orbit plan is L3-oriented and does not belong to this category)
With the improvement of upstream solutions, the launch of various personalized rollups in the future will actually be in line with the diversified supplement of the L2 ecological genealogy described by Vitalik.
Therefore, for some emerging Rollups, it is no longer possible to consider whether it is worth participating in the differentiated needs that infrastructure can solve. It is also necessary to consider whether the Rollup has the ability to break the deadlock under homogeneous competition.
For example, for a specific application Rollup, the valuation logic should start from the application business side, and it is only the basis of the execution layer logic. It is really necessary to think more about the competition for market share
Attached picture: The distribution of the top ten TVLs of ETH L2 has actually initially demonstrated this equilibrium diversification phenomenon
