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Author: Flip Reserch, encrypted researcher; Compilation: 0xjs@作 作 作 作 作 作 作
Recently, my timeline is full of remarks of SOL, mixed with Memecoin’s entrusted words.I started to believe that Memecoin’s super cycle is real, and Solana will replace Ethereum to become the main L1.
But then I started to study the data in depth, but at least it was worrying … In this article I will introduce my discovery, and why Solana may be a card house.
First of all, let’s take a look at the situation of good Solana.
Compared with ETH plus L2S indicators, I have four different views here
1,User transaction pens are high
2. Correspondingly increased expenses
3. High DEX transaction volume
4. The proportion of stable currency transactions is significantly high
Number of users
The following is the comparison between ETH main network and SOL (only the main network, because most of the costs after Dencun come from the main network, the source: token terminal):
ETH user number and transaction pens
Number of Solana users and transactions
On the surface, Solona’s numbers look good, with more than 1.3 million daily active users (DAU), while ETH is 376,300.However, when we add the number of transactions to the combination, I noticed a bit strange.
For example, on Friday, July 26, ETH’s trading pens were 1.1 million, and DAU was 3.763 million.The average daily transaction volume per user is about 2.92 pensEssenceHowever, the number of SOL transactions was 282.2 billion, while DAU was 1.3 million,The average daily transaction volume per user is as high as 217Essence
I think this may be because the cost is low, you can make more transactions, adjust your position more frequently, and increase arbitrage robot activities.Therefore, I compared it with another popular chain Arbitrum.However,Arbitrum only has 4.46 transactions/users on the same dayEssence
View other chains also get similar results:
Since the number of Solana users is higher than ETH, I checked according to Google Trends, Google Trends should have no sense of value for each user.
ETH is either flat with SOL or ahead of SOLEssenceConsidering DAU differences, coupled with all speculation around the trend of Sol Memecoin, this is not what I expect.
Like: The secret to wealth is written in the criminal law
So what happened?
DEX transaction volume analysis
To understand the differences in transaction counts, viewing Raydium’s LP will help.Even at first glance, some problems can be obviously found:
At first I thought this was just a false transaction with low liquidity on the honeypot LP, to seduce the strange Memecoin trader, but from the chart, the situation was much worse:
Each low liquidity pool is a project that runs in the past 24 hours.Take MBGA as an example. In the past 24 hours, 46,000 transactions have occurred on Raydium, with a transaction volume of $ 10.8 million, 2,845 independent wallets for sale, and incurred more than $ 28,000.(Please note that LP, MEW, which has been widely recognized in similar scale, only generates 11.2K pen transactions)
Judging from the wallet involved, the vast majority seem to be a robot in the same network with tens of thousands of transactions.They independently generate false transactions, and the number of SOL and the number of transactions is random, until the project is completed, and then transfer to the next project.
In the past 24 hours, Raydium standard LP has more than 50 trading projects with more than 2.5 million US dollars, which has generated a total of more than $ 200 million in transaction volume and more than $ 500,000.ORCA and Meteora’s running seems to be much less, and it is difficult for me to find any way of running projects with any meaningful transaction volume on Uniswap (ETH).
Obviously, there are serious problems in running projects on Solana, and there are many influences:
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Considering the ratio of abnormal transactions to user ratios and the number of false transactions on the chain, it seems that most of the transactions are non -human.EssenceThe highest daily transaction ratio to the user on the main ETH L2 is 15.0 times, on BLAST (the cost is also low, and the user is cultivating BLAST S2).Rough comparison, if we assume that the real SOL transaction is similar to the user ratio to the BLAST,That means that more than 93% of transactions (and expenses) on Solana are non -human beingsEssence
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The only reason why these scams exist are the favorable map.Therefore, the amount of users lost at least equal to the cost+transaction cost, as high as millions of dollars per dayEssence
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Once the deployment of these scams becomes unprofitable (that is, the actual user is tired of losses), you will expect that most of the transaction volume and costs will decline.
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Therefore, it seems that users, human expenses and DEX are seriously exaggerated.
I am not the only one who draws these conclusions.@GPHUMMER recently released similar content:
MEV on solana
MEV on Solana is in a unique position.Unlike Ethereum, it does not have a built -in memory pool; on the contrary, the infrastructure outside the protocol of (now abandoned) protocols is created to simulate the function of the memory pool, which allows MEV opportunities, such as the first trading and a messele attack.Helius Labs has compiled a deep article that introduces MEV in detail:
https://www.heelius.dev/blog/solana-Mev-n-ntroduction
The problem of Solana is that most of the trading tokens are MEMECOIN with high volatility and low liquidity. Traders usually set the trading slip point to & gt; 10%to ensure the successful execution of the transaction.This provides a favorable attack surface for MEV to get value:
If we look at the profitability of block space, it is clear that most of the value now comes from MEV:
Although in the strictest sense, this is the “real” value, but MEV will only be implemented in the absence of favorable charts, that is, as long as retail investors continue to come in to play (net loss) Meme.Once the MEME starts to cool, MEV cost income will collapse.
I have seen that many SOL papers are discussing how the infrastructure construction will ultimately rotate, such as Jup, JTO, and so on.This is very likely, but it is worth noting that their volatility and higher liquidity, which cannot provide the same MEV opportunity at all.
Experienced players will be motivated to build the best infrastructure to use this situation.During my research, some sources mentioned rumors that these players investment control MEMPOOL space, and then sell the access right to third parties.But I can’t confirm this information.
However,There are some obvious improper motivation -by guiding as many Memecoin activities as possible to SOLIt allows savvy individuals to continue from MEV, Memecoin’s insider trading and SOL price rise.
Stable currency
Speaking of stablecoin transaction volume+TVL, there is another strange phenomenon.The volume of stablecoins is significantly higher than ETH, but when we look at the DEFILLAMA stable coin data, ETH has a $ 80 billion stabilized TVL, while SOL is only $ 3.2 billion.
In my opinion, stablecoin (and wider) TVL is an index that is more difficult to control the transaction volume/cost than the low -cost platform. It only shows how many real gold and silver in the game.
The dynamic dynamics of the stablecoin transaction highlight this,@Wazzcrypto noticedCFTC announced that the transaction volume of stable currencies suddenly decreased after investigating JUMPThe
Retail value extraction
In addition to running and MEV, the prospects of retail investors are still dim.Famous people choose Solana as their preferred public chain, but the results are not optimistic:
Andrew Tate’s Daddy is the best celebrity tokens with a return rate of -73%.The situation on the other end is not much better:
Quick search on X can also sendNow the insider trading and developers dump from buyersEvidence:
But FLIP, my timeline is full of people who earn millions of dollars on the transaction emoticon package on Solana.What does this have to do with what you said?
I don’t believe that KOL’s posts on X can represent a wider user base.Under the current enthusiasm, they can easily hold a certain position, sell their tokens, make a profit from their followers, and then repeat the process.There are absolutely existing survivors’ deviations -the voice of the winner is far greater than the loser’s voice, which has a distorted view of reality.
Objectively speaking, retail investors seem to suffer millions of dollars every day. These losses come from scammers, developers, insiders, MEVs, and KOL, and this has not taken into account that most of their things they traded on Solana are not essentialSupported meme.It is difficult to deny that most Meme’s ultimate trend will be the same as Boden.
Other precautions
The market is changing rapidly. When emotional changes, the factors that buyers have turned a blind eye will become clear:
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Poor chain stability, frequent interruption
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High transaction failure rate
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Unable to read browser
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The development threshold is high, Rust’s user friendship is far less than Solidity
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Compared with EVM, interoperability is poor.I believe that we have made multiple interoperable chains to take our attention, which is much healthier than being bound to a single (quite concentrated) chain.
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From the perspective of regulatory perspective and demand, the possibility of ETF is very low.This article emphasizes why the institutional demand will be very low in the current state of Solana.@malekanoms also emphasized some views that I think are related to the traditional financial perspective (and@0xmert):
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The launch is as high as 67,000 SOL/day ($ 12.4 million)
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FTX ESTATE still has 41 million SOL ($ 7.6 billion) locked.Among them, 7.5 million ($ 1.4 billion) will be unlocked in March 2025, and 609,000 SOL ($ 113 million) will be unlocked per month until 2028.The purchase price of most tokens seems to be about $ 64
in conclusion
As usual,Those who sell picks and shovels profit from the wave of Solana Memecoin, while speculators are ransackedAnd often without knowing it.
I think,Usually referenced SOL indicators are seriously exaggeratedEssenceIn addition, the vast majority of natural users are quickly losing funds on the chain because of the evil.We are currently in the enthusiastic stage, and the flow of retail investors still exceed the outflow of these sophisticated players, which is optimistic.Once the user is exhausted due to continuous losses, many indicators will quickly collapse.
As mentioned above, SOL also faces some fundamental resistance. Once the market emotional changes, these resistance will be highlighted.Any price increase will exacerbate inflation pressure/unlock.
In the end, I think that SOL is overestimated from the fundamental perspective. Although the existing emotion + momentum may promote the rise in prices in the short term, the long -term prospects are even more uncertain.
Original link: https://x.com/flip_research/article/18182167396807776/
