jakiro
Overnight, BTC continued to fall at the 61k line.I briefly reviewed the investment record in the morning: Since 2024, the average cost of BTC’s position increase has been 67.7k (floating loss of 9.9%); if calculated from September last year, the average cost of increasing positions is 55.4k (floating profit of 10%) ——Compared with Wunai fixed investment of 52.8k, the purchase is slightly more expensive. The main reason is very clear: the investment in the range of 30-50k from the second half of 2023 to the beginning of 2024 is insufficient, and after late April, it will start to make up for the decline while the price is mainly supplemented.In the range of 60-70k, the average cost is increased overall.Reflecting on my style, I still like to increase positions on the left side more, that is, to operate against the trend and get on the bus when reversing.When facing the constant storm of the right-side market, I am always left behind and can’t get in the car.
Overall, over the years,The overall holding cost of BTC bottom positions has also been continuously raised to the current level of 14.5k (320%).In terms of the annual compound growth rate, the CAGR is about 27%, although it is less than 30%.However, compared with many other investment methods, it can be said that it is not inferior or even slightly better.The key to achieving such achievements is to adopt the correct strategic thinking through the operations mentioned in the previous paragraph that are not perfect or even self-defeating.
Although first-class strategies and third-class tactics often cannot achieve first-class results, at least they can easily get into an invincible position.However, first-class tactical ability, only third-class strategic thinking, is often defeated in the end.There are many smart and hardworking people in this market who are constantly being cut, constantly losing their positions, and constantly failing.Even if some people hit the fortune in individual cycles and suddenly become rich, they often return the capital and profit quickly, and they cannot continue to achieve victory or expand the results of the battle.The lesson is not far away, it is a sigh.
In the view of Teaching Chain, the essence of BTC is a kind ofA new type of production relations in the post-capitalist era.
Let us define “value” as a proportional relationship between products.Just like the relationship between length and severity, there is also a certain value relationship between any two products, one with a large value and the other with a small value.From qualitative comparison to quantitative comparison, we need to introduce weights and measurement tools.Use meters for length and ruler for measuring tools.Use grams for light and heavy, and use scale for measuring tools.The value is in units of currency, and the measurement tool is in people’s hearts.
A single product cannot be discussed as long or short, light or heavy, or value is large or small. Only by comparing it with other products can there be relationships such as length, light or heavy, and value.Therefore, relationships are relative, not absolute.
But the fact that length, weight and value are objective existences are objective attributes of the product itself.However, the value, length and weight are different.The ruler for measuring length and the scale for measuring weight are all standardized, tangible, visible and tangible.And the scale that measures value is in everyone’s heart.The so-called “the people have a scale in their hearts” is invisible and intangible.
BTC’s miners produce the original product for BTC: BTC’s ledger, or, strictly speaking, BTC’s block space.Paying BTC as a winding fee, or “miner fee”, in order to record your own BTC transfer transactions on the BTC account book, is essentially a limited number of auctions that are generated every 10 minutes on average.just block space.
Of course, this block space is very different from our ordinary disk storage space.Just like a car, it is very different from the raw materials used to make cars such as steel and rubber.These block spaces are the storage space proved by the PoW proof of work generated by extremely powerful computing power. All data written to the block space is covered by this proof of “reliability” or “safety”The imprint of the world today cannot shake it, the most powerful power held by humans on earth cannot defeat it, and the most powerful capital cannot bribe it!
Is such a product valuable?Of course it is valuable!
How valuable is this?Currently, it is about $1 trillion – that is, BTC’s market value today.
Some people may argue that market value is not the measured value of this value, it should be the total income of miners (for example, it will be more than 10 billion US dollars in 2023, and even, further, a large part of the total income of miners today comes from blocks.Rewards, that is, the newly added BTC, are a small part of the handling fee paid by users. Only the handling fee is considered the real fee paid for the block space, reflecting the market value of the block space. In this way, thenThe value is even smaller, and it may be only about 5%-10%, which is $500-1 billion per year.
No.
With such a “safe” block space, BTC’s transfer transactions can be safely recorded, and these transactions, namely value transfer, emerged with the unit of value – BTC.BTC as a symbol is artificially defined, and its value unit is the result of the emergence of the system.
The output of BTC is determined by a deterministic, open and transparent mathematical formula that no one can shake and tamper with.Highly secure block space is the bottom-line guarantee for the faithful execution of this mathematical formula.This makes BTC a great tool for storing value.
In other words, the above characteristics of BTC have led to its ability to attract more and more people to exchange money that they don’t spend for BTC as a kind of savings and save money.
Keynes saidSaving is investment.
When you decide to store value in BTC and save it, value will actually become capital – the value that can automatically generate new value.
For example, if you spend $61,000 today and save it in a cold wallet, then the value of $61,000 is slightly out of the turnover in the market and is eventually transferred to the hands of someone who sells 1 BTC.After this person gets the value of $61,000, he may be spending or putting it into production.Considering the situation of putting into production, he used this value to purchase the capital required for production (such as site, machines, manpower, etc.), and produced a value of far exceeding US$61,000.Then he took out part of the money he earned and redeemed it for BTC.
Let’s assume that this boss or individual producer is an extremely efficient producer and has a huge advantage over other competitors in the market, so he produces great surplus value, which allows him to take it out soon (61000 + x) USD to buy BTC again.
If such a competitive winner can not only completely buy back the BTC that was net loss from himself, coin sellers, and loss-making producers, but also buy back more, thereby further increasing his BTC holdings, thenTheir buying is enough to drive BTC up.
The BTC positions in the hands of savers who stock up on BTC will increase in value due to the rise in BTC.The added value comes from the value generated by productivity outside the BTC system and flows back to the BTC system.In the eyes of BTC hoarders, it seems that the value of BTC has “automatically” increased.
Therefore, from the perspective of BTC hoarders, BTC has the functions of preserving value and automatically adding value, thus becoming an excellent “storage of value” (SoV, storage of value).
It is precisely because BTC is an excellent “store of value” that has become a general consensus that producers will return the value of off-system investment returns to BTC.
It can be imagined that if BTC cannot continue to retain or even destroy value, such as the ghostly appearance of most “flows” altcoins falling continuously, then only fools will return value to such a “sickle harvest place”.
Therefore, the market value of BTC does not only reflect the little original value of the BTC block space for BTC transfer transactions, but also reflects all the value transferred by BTC, convert it into capital, and put it into productionOr reproduction, generate greater value, and then these values return to BTC, such a large value production cycle of the total valuation.
Deduced from this logic, it can be pushed to the future.
What’s even better is that such a system that is independent and co-produced by everyone, the total value of the system is shared by all BTC holders!Together create value and share value together is already very close to the ideal picture of “Datong Society”.
Just a little lack is the great improvement in productivity and the great material abundance.However, with the rapid development of industrial production capacity and AI technologies today, perhaps only by going through the so-called “Fourth Industrial Revolution” can we really produce massive materials continuously, everything is available, with a dazzling array of items, and every piece is “9 yuan”.9 Free shipping”…
The great increase in productivity must be the result of lower and lower commodity prices, and the BTC you stocked in your hands will become more and more durable. There will be no spending, but really no spending.
Today’s mainstream economist – capitalist economist – is afraid of death, because this phenomenon is called “deflation” in textbooks, a terrible deflation.
Why are economists afraid of deflation?Because today’s mainstream economists are essentially thinking about problems based on capitalist ideology.Capital is afraid of deflation, so they are also afraid of deflation.
Why is capital afraid of deflation?Because deflation means lower profits or even losses, companies go bankrupt, layoffs, employees are unemployed, hands stop and income are cut off, class declines, life falls back into poverty, and society falls into turmoil.
For the convenience of discussion,Traditional capitalist production relations—company system(or salary employment system), calledProduction Relations 1.0;BundleNew type of capitalist production relations——Platform economy, calledProduction Relations 2.0; and the above describedThis “communist-shared” production relationship of BTC, calledProduction Relations 3.0.
Let’s carefully analyze the characteristics of these three versions of production relations systems.
Production Relations 1.0 is the company that everyone is most familiar with.Although the production relationship of companies is very common today, it is actually very short in history, and it is only about 400 years.Today, due to time and space, it may not be possible to trace back to the production relations before version 1.0, such as peasants-landlords, slave-slave owners, and primitive society, etc., and I will write an article to discuss it later.
The characteristics of the company system are obvious stratification: shareholders who hold shares; employees who do not hold shares and receive wages; and other people who provide income to the company are customers or consumers.But strictly speaking, what kind of class are employees holding a small amount of stocks?Which type of bosses who are still working on the front line?If it is a listed company, then if you buy two shares of the company’s circulating shares in the secondary market, which category should you belong to?
Therefore, we cannot regard all those who hold stocks as company bosses or capitalists.Stocks are just the right to claim the surplus value of the company.Only actual control over the company’s capital is the key to determining who is the master.
By the way, the English class of “class” also means “class”.Chinese people say “birds of feathers gather together, and people share together.”But capitalist production relations are to “divided by humans”, that is, to divide them according to class, which actually makes people “materialized” into “tool people”.This is a cultural perspective, just an embellishment in our discussion.
For example, suppose Jiaolian started from scratch with his savings from working for many years and started a company.Everything is difficult at the beginning. At the beginning, it is just to do it yourself, that is, to hire yourself and exploit yourself.Suppose the company earns 300,000 yuan per year, and after taking into account the miscellaneous water, electricity and rent, there are still 200,000 yuan left, and paying itself a salary.At this time, the Teaching Chain is an employee who gets a salary, the owner of a company, a capitalist, but an unqualified capitalist, a “fake capitalist”.
Why is it said that Jiaolian is unqualified as a capitalist at this time?Readers may think that the company is profitable, with an annual cost of 100,000 and a profit of 200,000.Not so.The economic calculation of capital is about “opportunity costs”, not just explicit costs.
Suppose that if the Teaching Chain goes to work, it means selling its labor force and can get a salary of 1 million yuan per year in the market.Then, this means that the productivity of the Teaching Chain can be evaluated by the market to 1 million per year.Of course, it is important to note that the value of outputs for the same time and labor, the same output is different for different work.The continuous rematch between talents and positions in the free market is to continuously optimize and maximize the value of a person’s labor and time.
In any case, when Jiaolian gave up the opportunity to work with an annual salary of 1 million and earned 200,000 yuan per year by starting a company by himself, an opportunity cost of 1 million yuan per year was already incurred.With the explicit cost of 100,000, the real cost of the company is 1.1 million per year.
Cost 1.1 million, income 300,000, and net loss 900,000 per year.You can also change the algorithm. You could have earned 1 million, but now you only earn 200,000 yuan, losing 800,000 yuan. Adding to miscellaneous items, you will lose 100,000 yuan, a total loss of 900,000 yuan per year.This is the real economic calculation.An investment that has been losing money for years is definitely an unqualified investment. Therefore, judging from the requirements of capitalists, Jiaolian is unqualified at this time.
If you consider the current losses as an investment in the future.For example, after 5 years, the company’s revenue can reach 1.1 million yuan/year, and at this time it will reach a break-even.The total “investment” in 5 years, that is, the total loss, has accumulated to 4.5 million.
Five more years of break-even.Suppose the company’s revenue doubles to 2.1 million yuan per year.It only then did it start producing surplus value, 1 million per year.The previous loss of 4.5 million will take about 5 years to repay the surplus value of 1 million per year.
However, it is also necessary to consider the general social appreciation rate of the investment principal itself.Assuming that the general government bond interest rate is 4%, 4.5 million will grow annually in compound interest, and it will become 7.5 million in 13 years.Therefore, it actually takes 8 years, 1 million a year to truly make up for the first five years of investment losses (computers will lose).
Look how many years have passed?18 years!
This is the result that can only be obtained under the ideal situation where the company’s revenue increases by 3-4 times in the first five years and doubles in the next five years.
What if the opportunity loss of the investment loss of 4.5 million is not benchmarked with the general treasury bond interest rate, but invested in BTC?Assuming that Jiaolian has mastered the method of investing in BTC and achieving long-term profits, the long-term annualized growth rate can reach 30%.Then you will know that in just 10 years, the principal will increase to an astonishing 62 million yuan.Unless the company’s business experiences an exponential explosion, it will never be possible to catch up with the value-added speed of this BTC.
There are two obvious conclusions:
First, don’t start a business easily, especially starting a business from scratch.The compound strategy of working and hoarding BTC is far better than the strategy of starting a business on its own.
The higher your salary you work, the higher the cost-effectiveness of the latter strategy.
Second, class leap is extremely difficult.Workers want to become a boss and become a capitalist by starting a business, and almost 100% of the outcome is to become an unqualified fake capitalist.
It is precisely this conversion probability that equals zero that divides people in commodity society into two classes: workers and capitalists.If everyone can easily change their identities, then the class will no longer exist.
If Jiaolian suddenly opened a cheat: at the beginning, he used a company guaranteed income of 300,000 yuan per year, and hired 3 employees with an annual salary of 100,000 yuan (the actual salary is still lower, because there are taxes, fees, social security, etc.).These three employees are full of productivity, each of which can generate 400,000 yuan in revenue for the company every year.Assuming that the company’s explicit miscellaneous costs, because multiple people use it together, the average cost will be reduced to 50,000/person/year, then the total cost will be 200,000/person/year.In this way, how much profit can the company make from the beginning?(After considering opportunity costs)
30 (Income generated by Teaching Chain) + 40 x 3 (Income generated by employees) – 10 x 3 (Income salary cost) – 100 (Income salary cost) – 20 (Miscellaneous expenses) = 0 [Formula 1]
Is it a surprise?From day one, the company broke even!But what kind of employees and what kind of business are you talking about, can you make a salary of 100,000 yuan to earn 400,000 yuan for the company?
At this time, Jiaolian is still not considered a qualified capitalist.Because, the teaching chain itself has not yet escaped from labor.At most, he can only be regarded as a “quasi-capitalist”.
What if I hire one more employee?Then the Teaching Chain can no longer participate in business work, but it still needs to undertake management tasks, which is also labor.But the formula becomes:
40 x 4 (employee income generation) – 10 x 4 (employee salary) – 100 (teaching chain salary) – 20 (miscellaneous expenses, squeeze, assuming it remains unchanged) = 0 [Equation 2]
This is not enough.More is needed to be hired.Suppose you hire another such excellent employee.At this time, Jiaolian can spend 300,000 yuan per year to hire a manager to be responsible for the company’s business management, so that he can become a real boss.The formula at this time:
40 x 5 (Employee income generation) – 10 x 5 (Employee salary) – 30 (Manager salary) – 100 (Teaching chain salary) – 20 (Miscellaneous expenses, continue to squeeze, unchanged) = 0 [Equation 3]
At this scale, 5 employees and 1 manager began to truly and completely break away from labor and become a small capitalist.In [Equation 3], “Chengchain Salary” is actually the company’s profit, that is, the surplus value created by other employees.
Therefore, if Jiaolian has been working alone, even if his business is overwhelming and his annual income is 10 million, Jiaolian can only be a “fake capitalist”.If you hire someone but still have to manage it yourself or worry about some company operations, it is a “quasi-capitalist”.If all company affairs are fully handed over to professionals and they don’t have to do anything, but they still firmly grasp the control and distribution rights of the company, then only then can they truly complete the class leap and become a real capitalist.
However, because the scale of this company is too small, its annual income is only one million, which is just a dusty little capitalist.If a company reaches an annual income of 10 billion to 100 billion yuan, it can be considered a medium-sized capitalist.
Only medium-sized national capitalists can meet the level of the “middle class” divided by teachers on 1925.12.1 “Analysis of Classes in Chinese Society”.The article defines it very clearly: “The middle class. This class represents the production relations between urban and rural capitalism in China. The middle class mainly refers to the national bourgeoisie, and they have a contradictory attitude towards the Chinese revolution…”
Boss Ma before retirement was a successful “quasi-capitalist”.After retirement, Boss Ma was upgraded to a medium-sized national capitalist, which is what teachers call “middle class”.
Why can such successful business people like Boss Ma and Boss Zhang be called “medium-sized”?Because capital is global, we should look at the world by ranking seats and comparing scale.As a real big capitalist, everyone may not even know or be familiar with the name.For example, the Rockefeller family and the Morgan family in the United States have been passed down for a hundred years.In fact, there are no real big capitalists in China, and there are only agents arranged by these big capitalists in China.They formed a unique class, which was called the “comprador class” in “Analysis of Classes in Chinese Society”.
For today’s world where capitalism is dominant, the real big capitalist can no longer be described as “rich can rival a country”.The country is just that they hire actors, thugs and mascots to perform on stage.
It is as easy as a big capitalist to kill a small capitalist as trampling on an ant to death.Capital naturally has a tendency to merge, and the strong will always be strong and it is almost impossible to be defeated.This means that if you want to start from scratch and become bigger and stronger, and finally get old capitalists, the chance of becoming a big capitalist is definitely equal to 0, it is also infinitely approaching 0.
The 1.0 version of production relations adopted by capitalism has made great progress compared with the 0.5 version of production relations of landlords and hired farmers.Through the company, people can be liberated from the land, they can move around the world, and they can get rid of the small peasant economy alone. A large number of employees can divide their majors and positions, conduct large division of labor and cooperation, and production efficiency can be achievedGreatly improve and create more surplus value.
At the same time, for employees, they are liberated in the new production relationship, without being bound to the land, and can also be supported by each other in the company collective, which is reflected in the fixed monthly salary, without having to be like small farmers.Let’s have a meal when you look at the sky.Of course, if you encounter particularly bad external shocks in the economic cycle, you may suffer layoffs and unemployment and lay off.
Production Relations 2.0, which is the birth of “platform economy”, is the basic theory of the famous Coase theorem.
Why do people have to organize a company when they divide the work and cooperate with each other?Because of the nature of many jobs, input-output cannot be accurately measured, that is, pricing cannot be done by the free market.
When the bargaining cost (also known as friction cost) of free market pricing is too high, such as a programmer who writes code, or other highly professional positions, due to the advantages of knowledge, huge information asymmetry is caused, resulting in extremely small particle sizeIt is very difficult to evaluate tasks and market-oriented pricing, so it is better to simply buy out the programmer’s labor and make him an employee of the company.This is the basic meaning of Coase’s theorem.
From a realistic perspective, although there are program outsourcing platforms and so-called freelancers, they still cannot completely replace employed programmers.
The reason why Teaching Chain takes programmers as an example is that programmers are typical representatives of the new generation of productivity.The traditional capitalist production relations 1.0 claim that it is because the capitalists own means of production (machines, factories, etc.), so the capitalists are the boss.However, in the Internet era, the production materials used by programmers, including computers, mobile phones, and the Internet, are actually borne by themselves or can be borne by themselves. In other words, except for some companies on the surface, they also have to provide these in a hypocritical way. Everyone can do this, except for some companies on the surface.In fact, every programmer can have his own means of production independently.So, at this time, why can a boss who does not possess means of production still occupy the pit of capitalists?
At this stage of productivity development, although capitalists can also prevent individual workers from occupying all means of production by creating barriers such as intellectual property rights, data ownership, etc., the wheel of the times is obviously ready to go from the heads of traditional capitalists.Crush over.
Programmers are too professional and are bound by Coase’s theorem and will take some time to completely liberate.However, in other more standardized work, such individual producers, or free workers, have been born.For example, e-commerce sellers, special car drivers, takeaway workers, short video bloggers, official account authors, etc.
Capitalists’ companies have transformed into platforms.
There is a transaction relationship between individual producers, free workers and platforms, but no employment relationship.It can also be said that it is the capital relationship between small capital and big capital, rather than the labor-capital relationship of production relations 1.0.
However, since small capital has no bargaining power in front of big capital, although these individual producers gained greater freedom in the early stage of Production Relations 2.0, they also suffered greater exploitation and exploitation at the same time..
Improved production relations 1.0 will also be strongly required by the state to protect employees’ rights and basic welfare.All of this is almost impossible for free workers in Production Relations 2.0.
What makes them better than the hired farmers in the production relationship 0.5 is that when multiple platforms exist, they can obtain certain bargaining power on the platform through the possibility of changing the platform.
What makes them better than employees in Production Relations 1.0 is that if they do business with knowledge content, professional threshold, or simply strong temperament attributes (such as live streaming sales), then they have the opportunity to become bigger and stronger, so as toObtain excess returns and even evolve into real capital that eats surplus value.
Production Relations 3.0, which is the “communist sharing” production relationship described in the previous section of the Teaching Chain, which produces, shares together and supports each other, is a new type of production relationship created and inspired by BTC.
It is a more advanced development stage based on Production Relations 2.0.
The progress and change in production relations are driven by the progress of productivity.
Why did production relations 1.0 evolve into production relations 2.0?Coase’s theorem is the constraint that limits this evolution.And what is the driving volume?It is an improvement in productivity.
In straightforward and perhaps a little harsh words, it is inclined.Those who can’t get a job will be eliminated by the company and cannot find a new job, so they can only go to deliver food, drive a special car, open an online store, and do live broadcasts.
Why is it intravenous and eliminates the labor force?Because of the development of science and technology, the improvement of efficiency and productivity.
What topic has been talking about the most in the past two years?Isn’t it just that the development of AI (artificial intelligence) will inevitably eliminate a lot of various jobs in the future?
Teaching Chain saw a real story a few days ago.A foreign media, editorial team, with 60 editors last year, and this year the editor-in-chief is the editor-in-chief himself.The manuscript is generated using AI, and the editor-in-chief is responsible for revising, polishing and publishing.
This is a major trend in historical development.In the future, only more and more people will be eliminated by Production Relations 1.0 and have to embrace Production Relations 2.0.
However, if these free workers and individual producers trapped in production relations 2.0 are just fighting alone like the hired farmers in production relations 0.5 in ancient production relations, they will never have the day to turn over.
The only thing that can liberate and save these free workers is uniting and connecting.
It is not about linking on information, but about linking them with insignificant small capitals to form a united large capital that crushes the scale of all capitals of 1.0 and 2.0 in production relations.
This big capital that has been united is BTC.
Today, BTC’s market value is more than US$1 trillion.The global company market value ranks around 10.
In the future, if the market value of BTC is expanded ten times, it can be said to be greater than the capital of any public listed company.
All the free workers and individual producers holding BTC seem to be individuals who are not hired by capital, but they rely on large capitals that are larger than any listed company and share this big thing at all times.The return of capital continuous appreciation.
He only needs to work for a period of time and accumulate enough BTC, and he will be surprised to find that the return of capital alone is enough to support his own living expenses.At this time, he can stop working and concentrate on enjoying life.Or he can continue to work, but it is just for interests and hobbies, or a sense of mission in life.
BTC as aUnited Capital, will absorb the surplus value created by everyone (minus the portion absorbed by other platforms) and then share it fairly with everyone.
When you work and hoard BTC, you use the value you create to meet other people’s needs.When you no longer work and live on BTC, it is essentially others who contribute the value they create to help you.
You raise BTC, BTC supports you.You support everyone, everyone supports you.Everyone raises everyone.
Most importantly, BTC is decentralized, without random additional issuance, without PoS capital interest, without class inequality created by initial token allocation (sickles-leeks), and without a single organization kidnapping other participants to control the arbitrary hard forkChanging the privileges of token issuance methods, etc., is a very critical basic construction.
Without these basic constructions, a coin will become an extremely sharp and bloodthirsty harvester.
With these key constructions, a currency has the opportunity to develop into a joint capital like BTC.
Such joint capital can only be formed first in the category of productivity sufficient to overcome Coase’s theorem.
Only by carrying joint capital with truly decentralized crypto assets can truly achieve true fair alliances and ensure that the value created and contributed by everyone can be “shared” fairly, and a new type of production relationship 3.0 can be built.
This is what the Teaching Chain learned from BTC, about the revelation of the production relations revolution in the post-capitalist era.
