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Author: Matt Hougan, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer; Compilation: 0xjs@作 作 作 作 作 作
People often make a mistake in evaluating Bitcoin, which has caused them to seriously underestimate the potential of Bitcoin.
During dinner last week, a financial consultant asked me a great question:
Bitcoin has to rise to $ 200,000. Is it necessary to collapse in the dollar?
This is a great problem because it reveals the vague logic used by many people when talking about Bitcoin.With my experience, they often say this:
Bitcoin is digital gold, and the United States is abusing the US dollar; so Bitcoin is valuable.
These words are right -oops, I may have said similar words on CNBC.But this statement is lazy.Specifically, they confused two different arguments.
This confusion is harmful because it greatly underestimates the entire potential of Bitcoin and the possibility of success.If you separate these arguments and consider it alone, you can better understand Bitcoin.
Exclusive 1: Bitcoin will be successful
When you buy Bitcoin, your first bet is that it will succeed.For me, this means that one day it will be able to drive together with gold, becoming a established, well -known value storage method, and is held by various investors.
In the past 15 years, Bitcoin has made great progress towards this goal.From scratch, it has developed into an asset worth more than $ 1 trillion, which is held by 60%of large hedge funds in the world, many large asset management companies, and even some countries.It has undergone a bull market and bear market, scandal and breakthrough, and has also undergone a variety of regulatory systems.Most people now admit that it will always exist.
But it is not mature.Today, most institutional investors still do not hold Bitcoin.Many financial institutions are still prohibited from holding it.The media still does not trust it.And many people still don’t know it.For gold, we don’t often hear this situation.
A simplified, zero -harmonious version of this argument is that Bitcoin will seize the market of gold.But I think it is more likely that Bitcoin will gradually expand the size of the “value storage” market.
In terms of our purpose, this is not important.Bitcoin’s market value is 1.3 trillion US dollars, only 7%of the $ 18 trillion market value of gold.I do n’t know that the market value of mature Bitcoin will be half of the gold, which is equivalent to gold, or twice as big as gold, or it will bring new investment groups.But I am convinced that it will not be just 7%.
Therefore, investing in Bitcoin is betting on the current path of the current path along the ecological market to the mainstream market.This is also the main driving force for it in the past 15 years.I think it still has a lot of room for development.
(By the way: If the market value of Bitcoin increases to the same as gold, the value of each bitcoin will be about $ 900,000.)
Exclusive 2: Governments of various countries will continue to depreciate the legal currency
When you buy Bitcoin, your second bet is that the US and other countries governments will continue to print money and carry debts, so as to depreciate the legal currency.According to this reasoning, this will not only increase the value of “value storage” assets such as Bitcoin and gold, but also prompt more investors to allocate such assets, thereby further expanding the market size.
In the United States, we now have a $ 36 trillion federal debt -and $ 1 trillion will be added every 100 days.This year, we will spend $ 900 billion to repay the debt, and interest expenditures have become one of the largest projects in the federal budget.The US Congress Budget Office estimates that by 2054, debt will reach $ 142 trillion.
In my opinion, such a scale of debt and money printing will greatly expand the size of the “value storage” market, as investors will find a shelter from this crazy situation.Can the current $ 20 trillion market size be changed to $ 5 trillion in 10 years?Or $ 1 billion?
I want to say that it is obvious: if the scale of the “value storage” market has tripled in the next 10 years, and Bitcoin only maintains its 7%share in the market, the price of Bitcoin will also trip.
(It is worth noting that many people in the Bitcoin community -including me -they all think that Bitcoin has other uses in addition to the traditional “value storage”.It is used as a replacement of currencies in various countries to settle international payment.
Conclusion: Why is this analysis framework strong
The important thing about these arguments is that they are both cumulative and independent.
The independence I said means that as an investor, you can succeed in just one of the arguments.
Imagine that the market value of Bitcoin increased to 25%of the current gold market, and there were no changes in other situations.There are no market expansion, no new use cases, and no concerns about the rise in debt spirals.very good!In this case, the price of Bitcoin will reach US $ 214,000, which is about four times the current level.
Or imagine that the market share of Bitcoin has not increased, but the market size of the “value storage” has tripled.It’s also very good!Then the price of Bitcoin will also trip.
If both things happen (if those extra opportunities can be achieved, it is better), it is really great.The good news is that I think this is the most likely situation.
Therefore, the answer to my consultant friend is: No, Bitcoin has to rise to $ 200,000 and does not require the US dollar collapse.It only needs to get a small cup from the existing market to reach this price.
However, as the governments continue to abuse their currencies, Bitcoin has continued to mature, and it may not only reach this price, but also exceed this.
