Data Analysis: Which Meme coin holder has higher belief in holding positions

Author: Michael Nadeau, The DeFi Report; Translation: 0xxz@Bitchain Vision

Before we officially start this article, let’s take a brief look at the background.

Our analytical research shows that meme coins have higher L1 asset attributes (and are more likely to be better than L1).
We believe meme coins are leveraged bets on various themes/narratives and ecosystems.
We are only interested in meme coins that have reached a certain escape speed.This removes 99% of the market share – we focus on blue chip meme coins with sufficient liquidity.(Note: This article was published before the release of TRUMP)

By the way, I remember watching Paul Tudor Jones interviews in 2020.He mainly talks about Bitcoin.He mentioned that Stanley Druckenmiller told him that 80% of Bitcoin holders have the price of Bitcoin held by them from $20,000 to $3,000 (after the 2017 cycle).This is interesting data.This gave Paul Tudor Jones the belief in investing in Bitcoin.When we analyze meme coins and wallet groups, we are looking for similar obvious data.

But please remember that meme coins are very dangerous and unstable.

Please only invest in the things you are willing to lose, and do your own research anytime.

Let’s look at the data…

1. Token holder growth

summary:

SPX6900 is the only meme coin with a USD 1,000-scale holder growth rate exceeding its overall holder growth rate.
Note that many assets have fallen prices in the past 30 days, which can distort data.Fartcoin (up 94%), AI16z (up 81%) and SPX6900 (up 52%) were the best performing assets last month.
GIGA is an anomaly in the data as its price has remained flat for the past 30 days, but it still allows its $1,000-sized holders to maintain growth.

2. Concept of holding tokens

(1) Average and median positions

summary:

The SPX6900 stands out again because it has 369% higher median holdings in all Ethereum addresses than Pepe, the second-ranked meme per wallet.It also has the highest average balance.
Solana’s SPX6900 has a different story, because the median holding is only 25% of what we see in Ethereum.This is consistent with the market’s perception of these two networks: Ethereum tends to attract more TVL and higher value transactions than Solana.
Based Brett on Base L2 is the most “gamified” meme.We are studying what’s going on, but from the chart below we can see that there are three significant increases in token holders.Insiders seem to have airdropped hundreds of thousands of wallets to promote marketing/community building.This is nothing new, the Bonk team has done so in the past (including airdrops for Solana phone buyers).

Generally speaking, we can see that most meme coin “investors” operate only in a few hundred dollars range – possibly investing in multiple projects.

Once again, the SPX6900 stands out on Ethereum because its community seems to have a more faithful sense than any other meme.

(2) Investors above the scale of US$1,000

summary:

Once again, the SPX6900 attracted attention.36% of users hold more than $1,000, while the average of holders over $1,000 for other popular memes is only 14.2%.
Pepe stands out in the “big market meme”, with 18% of its wallet holdings exceeding $1,000.
The top five are Fartcoin, AI16z and MOG.

(3) Investors above US$100,000

summary:

SPX6900 once again topped the list, with wallets above $100,000 accounting for the highest proportion.Some people think this is bad because it suggests that big holders may “sell” to retail investors.I think the opposite is true.In my opinion, the higher the proportion of people holding more than $100,000, the more people have high confidence in this asset.In some ways, SPX6900 may form BTC-like properties in meme.
Fartcoin and AI16z (both on Solana) showcase an astonishing number of wallets with holdings of more than $100,000.

(4) The proportion of wallets below $100

summary:

The SPX6900 has more than $1,000 (12,914) wallets on Ethereum, while the number of wallets with less than $100 (9,920) is relatively small.Again, this is an exception data.Judging from this indicator, no other meme is similar to it.In fact, only 29% of SPX wallets on Ethereum hold less than $100.Pepe ranks second, with wallets under $100 accounting for 43%.
For reference: Pepe (the second largest asset in the category) has 7.6 wallets above $1,000 and 179,000 wallets below $100.
You will see the bottom 4 assets under $100 wallets with high concentration.We think these model meme coins are more centralized, with insiders conducting marketing activities and airdrops – which makes this category of data appear like this.

3. Whale growth

Whale wallet 30-day growth rate

summary:

Fartcoin and AI16z are at the top of the list, which is a bit surprising.Both assets were launched in October last year and have seen significant growth over the past 30 days.Given that prices rose by 94% and 81% respectively during this period, it is not unreasonable to increase wallets of over $100,000.But both of these assets are quite volatile, so we see that there seem to be a considerable number of holders showing high confidence, which is a very interesting phenomenon.
Bonk has fallen 14% over the past month, but its $100,000-scale wallet number has fallen 69%, suggesting that many big holders may have recently taken profits.This may put Bonk’s base price in the range of $0.000026-0.000028.

4. Whale retention rate

The purpose of using this metric is to view all wallets with a holding of over $100,000 in the asset life cycle.We then compared this number to the number of wallets that still hold more than $100,000.We believe this indicator gives us some understanding of the long-term beliefs of big holders.

*Please note that our current dataset lacks some large Ethereum memes.We will share the data with everyone as soon as we get it.

summary:

The SPX6900 exceeded expectations in this regard.86% of holders who once held tokens above $100,000 still maintained at least that level, even though the token price is currently 34% below its all-time high.It can be said that this is a fanatical act.

5. Internal transactions

Our focus here is on identifying tokens with distinct “conspiracy” characteristics.To do this, we looked at the total number of wallets that received tokens in the first week after issuance.Then, we filter out the “internal wallet” based on the condition of “wallets that received tokens but had previously traded less than 5 transactions”.

The logic is that crypto users who receive tokens in the first week and who trade less than 5 times are unlikely to be not an internal wallet.

summary:

Of the 5 assets we can get data, SPX once again tops the list.
Pepe had a large number of token recipients (45,000) in the first week, with a high proportion of “insiders”.
Based Brett owns 55% of the internal wallet, which doesn’t surprise us.Of all the memes we analyzed, this token seems to be the most centralized management.

6. Conclusion

I want to make it clear that we are still in the early stages of gathering insights through data.Please note that some data may be noisy (note that asset prices may distort some indicators).

We believe that by analyzing wallet groups, we can learn a lot.

So, what have we learned?

SPX6900 ranks first among 6 of 9 datasets.It ranks second in a dataset.Whale Wallet ranks third in its 30-day growth rate.This makes it a combined score of 9 points.
In terms of overall score, the second-ranked asset is the 21-point AI16z.
Fartcoin ranked third with a total score of 28 points.

Finally, what I want to say is:

Please note that there are different ways to view and interpret data.You might say that it is a bad thing that most holders still hold their tokens.You might say that the proportion of holders under $100 should be higher.I don’t think so, I think the higher the proportion of holding a large amount of token wallets, the more confident it is.But you can question the way I interpret the data and give your own opinions.
Our data is limited to on-chain data and does not include centralized exchange data.WIF, Bonk, Shiba Inu, Pepe, GIGA are all traded on Binance, Coinbase and other platforms.
Suppose we do not include SPX6900 tokens on Base in the dataset.As far as we know, it seems that some airdrop event (probably multiple times) distorted the data, so we deleted it.The token has 72,012 wallets, but only 1,929 wallets have a holding of more than $1,000 (2.6%).The median balance is $0.000001.The real activity of the SPX6900 takes place on Ethereum and Solana.

The conclusion we have drawn does not mean that these assets will perform well in the future.In fact, if BTC does not perform well in the coming months, I do not expect any of these assets to perform well.

But if you think BTC will perform well in the coming months, it may be wise to form a data-driven view for 2025’s “blue chip meme”.These datasets can help you do this.