jakiro
Author: Alexander Osipovich, Wall Street Journal; Compiled by: 0xxz@Bitchain Vision
The mysterious trader, known as the “Trump Whale”, will make nearly $50 million in profits after making a series of bold bets related to the presidential election.
He not only believes that Donald Trump will win the presidential election, but also bet that Trump will win the universal election——Many political observers believe this result is unlikely.The self-proclaimed “Théo” trader also bets that Trump will win “blue wall” swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Now Théo is about to receive huge returns.He used four anonymous accounts to place bets on the cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket.Although he refused to reveal his identity, he has been in touch with a journalist at the Wall Street Journal since an Oct. 18 article drew attention to his bet.
In dozens of emails, Théo said his bet is essentially a bet on the accuracy of poll data.He claims to be a wealthy Frenchman and has worked as a trader in several banks, he told the Wall Street Journal that he began using his mathematical knowledge to analyze American polls this summer.
He believes the polls exaggerate the approval rating of Vice President Harris.Unlike most political commentators who talk on paper, he does what he says, betting more than $30 million and betting that Trump will win.
On Tuesday night, the election results were released one after another, and Théo was in a very happy mood.He said he woke up in the middle of the night in France to check the election results.
Trump’s strong performance in Florida foreshadows a great chance of winning in the popular election, writing: “I am very happy and confident in my bet!”
In a private message sent to reporters before the election day, Théo predicts that Trump will win 49% or 50% of the votes across the United States, beating Harris.He also predicts that Trump will win six of seven battleground states.
As of Wednesday afternoon, analysts predicted Trump would win the universal suffrage, with Trump going to win nearly 72 million votes and Harris won 67.1 million votes, although millions of votes in California and other states have not yet been counted.The gambling market believes that Trump’s victory in universal suffrage is almost a foregone conclusion.
The gambling market shows that Trump is expected to win all seven swing states.On Wednesday, Théo thought Harris might win Michigan was predicted to be the state Trump won.
The Wall Street Journal has confirmed thatThéo is the trader behind Polymarket accounts that systematically buy Trump’s winning bets.Polymarket confirmed some of his claims, saying the person behind these bets was a Frenchman with extensive trading experience and background in financial services.
Théo said he bets on Trump with his money in order to make big money and he “absolutely has no political purpose.”The Wall Street Journal cannot determine whether these claims are true.The Wall Street Journal also cannot rule out Théo’s connection with any political organization or Trump’s allies.
In his emails and Zoom conversations with reporters,Théo has repeatedly criticized American polls.He particularly criticized the polls conducted by mainstream media, which, in his opinion, tended to produce abnormal poll results that favor Harris.
“In France, the situation is different!! The credibility of the poll is more important: they want the results to be as close to reality as possible. Cultures are different in this regard,” he wrote.
Théo shared a number table based on the average of RealClearPolitics polls that shows Trump excelling in the 2020 swing state polls.Given that the 2024 swing state poll results are very close, Théo infers that if Trump can do a similarly good job, he will easily take the lead.
Théo said the poll failed to explain the “shy Trump voter effect.”Théo wrote that either Trump supporters are reluctant to tell pollsters that they support the former president or they don’t want to participate in the polls.
To solve this problem,Théo believes that pollsters should use so-called neighbor polls, which is to ask respondents which candidate they expect their neighbors to support.The idea is that people may not want to reveal their preferences, but they will indirectly reveal their preferences when asked to guess who their neighbors plan to vote for.
Théo cites the results of several polls released in September that use neighbor voting laws and traditional voting laws.These polls show that when respondents were asked who their neighbors would vote for, Harris’ approval rating was a few percentage points lower than the result of asking directly which candidate they supported.
For Théo, this proves that the polling agency has once again underestimated Trump’s approval rating.The data helped him to place his bet, believing that Trump would win the universal suffrage.When Théo bets, bettors on Polymarket believed Trump had less than 40% chance of winning the universal suffrage.
When Théo celebrated the election results on election night, he revealed another part of the analysis of his bet success.In an email,He told the Wall Street Journal that he commissioned a large polling agency to conduct a survey to measure the neighbor effect.But he refused to name the institution.He wrote that the findings were “shocking and in good shape in Trump!”
Théo declined to share the findings, saying his agreement with the polling agency required him to keep the findings confidential.But he argued that U.S. polling agencies should use neighbor laws in future investigations to avoid embarrassing mistakes again.
“If the latest polls measure the neighbor effect, public opinion will be clearer,” Théo said.
