jakiro
Author: bitsCrunch Source: mirror
Recently, BTC has once again broken through the $70,000 mark, and the greed index in the market has once again reached 80, and Meme coins are often the clarion call for every bull market charge. For example, $GOAT’s price rose by more than 10,000 times in 5 days.Through the analysis of the transaction data of the current market TOP 25 Meme coins, we found several market characteristics and evolutionary trends worth paying attention to.
Meme Market Characteristics
Holding address hierarchy
In terms of the number of holders, the number of holders of SHIB, DOG, DOGE, MEME and DEGEN exceeds 800,000 addresses, of which SHIB is the leader with 1.51 million addresses, about 400,000 addresses higher than the second-place DOG.At the same time, these projects also occupy a relatively high trading volume in the overall market.
The number of holding addresses of BONK and BRETT is more than 700,000, while the number of holding addresses of PEPE, WIF and other projects is 320,000 and 180,000 respectively.However, it is worth noting that the 30-day growth of the two projects is 3.02% and 4.86%, respectively, which is higher than the Meme coins with the largest number of holders in the previous period.
It is worth noting that according to bitsCrunch data, MEW and MIGGLES are the only two remaining Meme coins with addresses above 100,000, while MIGGLES has grown by 26.55% in the past 30 days.Tokens such as HIGHER, FLOKI, POPCAT, MOCHI, PONKE, MOODENG, and MYRO constitute projects with 50,000 to hold address ranges, but their liquidity is relatively limited.
Liquidity stratification
The price of Meme coin shows a strong correlation with social hot events.Based on the buy-sell comparison index, we found that TRUMP’s index was 1.66 and the price rose 15.9%.This is highly related to the recent US political election incident.
SHIB and WIF have the largest trading volume in the past 7 days, with \(70.2 billion\)67.3 billion respectively, ranking first, far exceeding third and fourth place.By comparing trading volume and price fluctuations, it was found that the price fluctuations of projects with the highest trading volume (such as SHIB, DOGE) were relatively moderate, while projects with smaller trading volumes tended to fluctuate more.
It can be seen that the large-cap Meme coins are gradually gaining the attribute of “store of value”, and investors have a stronger tendency to hold it. Many investors have adopted the “buy on dips” strategy, and the head effect will be further strengthened.The small-cap Meme coins play more the role of speculative tools and are more speculative in the short term.Liquidity stratification will be more obvious, which may lead to intensifying market polarization.
The address and price change ratio reflects immediate changes in liquidity.According to bitsCrunch data, HIGHER and MOODENG have increased liquidity in the short term of 2.32% and 1.98% respectively, and this abnormal liquidity influx often indicates possible price fluctuations.
In contrast, TURBO and PONKE showed liquidity outflows of -0.31% and -0.13% respectively, which slow but sustained liquidity outflows may suggest a gradual weakening of market confidence.
For investors, this means more careful assessment of the liquidity risks of the project, rather than just focusing on price fluctuations.In this rapidly evolving market, the importance of risk management may outweigh the pursuit of returns.
Ecological analysis framework
The Meme tool ecosystem panoramic map presents five core sectors of the entire industry: research tools, security inspections, tracking systems, trading platforms and issuance platforms.
Transaction security data analysis
Judging from the current market data, authenticity verification and contract security assessment have become the primary links in investment decision-making.There are often two possibilities hidden behind the flood of Meme currency trading market: one is that the project party is trying to be on the trend list of DEX Screener through manufacturing transaction activity; the other is that robots are conducting market manipulation.Therefore, it is necessary to identify real community interactions before transactions.
Through the contract analysis of the coin holding addresses of Meme coin projects, we found several risk problems. One is that the authority concentration is too high, the second is that the liquidity lock is missing, and the third is that the coin holding addresses are overlapping a large number.
Specifically, a core address frequently interacts with multiple distributed addresses.This model is particularly common in some emerging projects with abnormal 24-hour gains and often indicates the risk of centralized control of the market.Secondly, it is necessary to monitor whether there are complex capital transactions between multiple large holding addresses, which may be due to a large speculative group operating behind the scenes.
Therefore, for Meme coin novices, it is necessary to focus on the diversified position, which is usually more common in mature projects such as SHIB or PEPE.But it is worth noting that even for such projects, the TOP100 addresses still control most of the supply.
Social influence analysis
Generally speaking, a successful Meme coin project requires an average of at least 3-5 KOL endorsements with more than 100,000 fans.But this indicator is changing.
At present, high fans are no longer the decisive factor.For example, although HIGHER has only received support from medium-sized KOLs, its ability to rise is stronger.This reflects the market’s positive transformation towards deKOL.The time distribution of KOL endorsement has an important impact on project trends.Projects that focus on obtaining multiple KOL endorsements in the short term often perform less than projects that endorsements scattered over different periods.
Key indicator system
Based on the statistical analysis of successful cases, we summarize the following key indicator systems:
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Volume Indicators: The organic trading volume of a robust project within 1 hour of launch (excluding robot trading) should reach $500-1,000.This figure is lower than the industry generally believes that the $1,000-2,000 threshold, but we find that the lower initial threshold is conducive to the sustainable development of the project.
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Market value threshold: $100,000 is a key psychological barrier.Data shows that 87% of successful projects only begin to achieve substantial growth after breaking through this market value.But it is worth noting that this threshold varies from different tracks.For example, AI-themed Meme coins often require a higher starting market capitalization.
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Supply distribution: The proportion of holdings of the founding team is an important indicator.Statistics show that when the founding team’s position is less than 5%, the survival rate of the project is significantly improved.This may be because lower team positions reduce the risk of selling pressure and increase community confidence.
Risk warning mechanism
First, basic indicator monitoring.Track basic data such as trading volume, position distribution, price fluctuations in real time, and set an abnormal fluctuation alarm threshold.
Second, on-chain behavior analysis.Monitor the abnormal movement of large-value addresses, especially interaction with known risk addresses.At the same time, track changes in liquidity pools and warn of possible selling behaviors.At the same time, a dynamic stop loss system is established, and different stop loss ratios are set according to the different development stages of the project.
Third, social signal monitoring, establish a KOL library, and identify possible market manipulation signals.Pay special attention to abnormal activity on social media, focus on opportunities on new public chains, and diversify your portfolio.
Based on a large amount of data and market observation, we hope to provide investors entering the Meme market with a comprehensive market overview and systematic analysis framework.However, it should be emphasized that this article does not constitute investment advice, and any framework needs to be continuously adjusted and improved according to market changes.Since Meme is a high-risk and high-reward market model, you must pay attention to risk monitoring before trading.
