LD Capital Macro Weekly: More than 97%of Bitcoin profit

Ten spot Bitcoin ETFs can be said to be one of the most successful financial products in history. Last week, the transaction volume and capital inflows reached a new high.The total net inflow has reached $ 7.35 billion.Bellaide’s IBIT has reached a $ 10 billion asset mark in just seven weeks. This is the fastest speed of ETF to reach this number, and the scale exceeds the largest silver ETF.

It can be seen in February that if the reason for the increase in the bond market rate is positive factors (strong economic growth rather than the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes), the stock market can perform well in this environment.Despite the rise in interest rates, the standard Puhe Index rose by about 5%last month, and the global stock market also reached a record high. Many major stock indexes in the world reached a record high, including Germany, France, and Japan.Chip stocks rose sharply, NVIDIA rose 30%, AMD rose 20%, and Broadcom and TSMC rose 17%.The logic of chip stocks, the closer to the upstream of the AI industry chain, the more rising. As for the performance of downstream software companies, especially large technology, such as Google fell 4%in the past month, Apple fell 2.4%, Microsoft rose 3%, Meta was 500 because of 500 because of 500Billion repurchase rose 27%.Crude oil prices rose slightly slightly nearly $ 80.The US dollar index rose first and then fell.Bitcoin and Ethereum rose nearly 50%.

Unlike the rising yields last year, the stock market and cryptocurrency recovery were recovered, and the global stock market was able to strengthen and rose in the case of short -term and long -term interest rates. The main three reasons: 1) In the fourth quarter, corporate profit performance performance was strong;2) The prospects of NVIDIA inspire people’s new enthusiasm for artificial intelligence; 3) strong economic growth.

The weak US economic data released on Friday and the speech of the Federal Reserve’s directors made the market’s currency relaxation expectations, and US debt yields dived significantly.The ISM manufacturing index in the United States in February accidentally dropped to a seven -month low of 47.8, shrinking for 16 consecutive months, and new orders and employment have shrunk.

Federal Reserve Director Voller (the next popular candidate for the Federal Reserve) hinted that it would implement the reverse “reversing operation” (QT), that is, the Fed should be “buying short -selling” on the balance sheet.He also hopes that the MBS of the Fed in the position of the Fed’s holding is reduced to zero, and the proportion of short debt in the table will increase.Waller’s speech implies that FED hopes to reduce the return on short debt, that is, the interest rate closer to the currency market must be reduced. It belongs to a pigeon signal. In addition, to a certain extent, it can alleviate the inversion of the curve of the yield.

Before the global financial crisis, about one -third of the FED investment portfolio was short -term government bonds.Today, the scale of short -term Treasury bonds is less than 5%of the holdings of Treasury bonds.

During the event on the same day, the Dallas Fed Chairman Loury Logan once again emphasized that with the decline in bank reserves, the Fed may begin to slow its shrinkage speed.U.S. debt, gold rising, and US stock indexes hit a record high.

As for whether the recent rise is overheating, history shows that the market has not entered an overheating state, but the growth rate may slow down and the volatility may increase.

Compared with the past 12 bull markets, the first 16 months of the bull market increase (42%) lower than the average level (50%).(This statistics are not applicable in the currency circle)

In the future, if the Fed’s policy gradually relax the monetary policy will help economic expansion and promote the further rise in risk assets.Bank of America wrote last week: “The Fed’s interest rate cutting is stimulating the” animal spirit ‘and promoting the development of risk assets. “

However, the stock market will not rise forever.When investors’ emotions are too optimistic, the market often becomes more shock.Although the emotions of investors have become optimistic, they have not reached extreme levels.Investors should maintain reasonable expectations for returns and volatility. Historically, a 5% recovery of 10% correction will occur with an average of three times a year.

All about bitcoin

Seven trading days appeared for the first time on Friday, mainly because GBTC was caused by nearly 1.1 billion US dollars in a row in two consecutive days. The main reason for the market speculation may be caused by the loan agency Genesis repayment.Genesis was approved by the bankruptcy court on February 14 to sell 35 million GBTC shares (at that time worth $ 1.3 billion, and now about $ 1.9 billion), but GBTC’s funds in the past two weeks have not soared until Thursday, until Thursday has soared, until Thursday soared, until Thursday soared, until Thursday soared, until Thursday soared, until Thursday soared, until Thursday soared, until Thursday soared, until Thursday soared, until Thursday soared, until Thursday soared, until Thursday soared, until Thursday soared, until Thursday soared, until Thursday soared, until Thursday soared, until Thursday soared.However, this throwing pressure now seems to have digested most of them.

At present, we can expect large institutions to “surrender” one after another.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said that the current demand mainly comes from retail investors, hedge funds and independent financial consultants.He predicts that as the larger US securities firms begin to participate, the demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs will further increase.Because some of the largest banks in the United States include Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase, these banks have not yet provided customers with BTC ETFs.

It is unclear whether the excitement around Bitcoin is taking away the funds of gold, but there seems to be some disconnection between the price trend of gold and the level of investment. This disconnection has lasted for more than 1 year.Historically, ETF holdings supported by gold and gold support have been traded simultaneously, but from 2023, the two began to decide, as shown below.This may be caused by a variety of factors, including changes in investor emotion, monetary policy, balanced investment portfolio, and currency fluctuations.

For investors with long investment cycle or greater risk preferences, Bitcoin is the best choice, and its volatility is about eight times that of its similar gold.The 10 -day standard deviation of precious metals is ± 3%, while the 10 -day standard deviation of Bitcoin is ± 25%.

The driving factor of gold prices in recent months seems to have changed.For decades, gold and actual interest rates have been reversed -the decline in yields has risen, and vice versa -but since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, this model has been broken.In the 20 years before COVID, gold and actual interest rates have a high degree of negative relationships.However, since then, the correlation has turned to a positive value, and these two assets have now moved in the same direction.

At present, the central bank’s purchase activity is a new driving force for gold.Since 2010, financial institutions (mainly financial institutions of emerging economies) have been a net buyer of metal to support their domestic currencies and realize the US dollar.

Edward Snowden shared his prediction of 2024 last week, that is, the state government will be discovered to secretly buy Bitcoin. He said that Bitcoin is “golden alternative of gold”

At present, only the Salvador administration has actively purchased the country’s Bitcoin, and currently holds 2,381 Bitcoin in its treasury. The current buying cost may be 40%.

According to statistics from Intotheblock, more than 97%of the Bitcoin address currently achieves profitability, the highest level of profit since November 2021.

Last time we observed such a large proportion of the profit address, the price of Bitcoin was about $ 69,000, close to the highest point in history.

But it is obviously meaningless to look at it. When the price often exceeds the peak at the end of each round of the bull market, the proportion of profit is definitely high. We should pay more attention to the change in the profit ratio of each round of the bull market

In January 2013, the price of BTC was 14, the previous height was 23, and the profit ratio returned to more than 90%after 17 months.

In June 2016, the price of BTC was 716, the front height was 1100, and the profit ratio returned to more than 90%after 31 months.

In August 2020, the price of BTC was 11,500, the previous high was 19,500, and the profit ratio returned to more than 90%after 32 months.

In February 2023, the price of BTC was 51,000, and the previous height was 69,000. The profit ratio returned to more than 90%after 27 months. By the next high point?Double

It can be seen that when the price of BTC reaches about 60-70%of the previous height, the profit ratio will rise to more than 90%. At this time, the user’s attempt to achieve the selling pressure of the return on the book will no longer have a significant impact.More smooth.

And from the past three historical perspectives, this area will continue to increase with the price of 90 profit margins for the first time.

However, the price increase in the past three times has decreased, and it is normal to mature with the market.

The maximum increase of 390%after the fixing of the index attenuation model reached 90%, and the price of 51,000 as the benchmark price was about 250,000.

Follow the April Return

Morgan Chase analysts released a report last week to predict that the decrease of Bitcoin in April may lead to a decline in profitability of miners. In addition, the increase in production costs may cause downward pressure on Bitcoin prices.

Historically, the production cost of Bitcoin has always been the key decisive factor of its lower price limit.The average production cost of Bitcoin is currently US $ 2,6500, and it will double to $ 53,000 after half.However, the network computing power may decrease by 20%after halving, so the estimated production cost and price may be reduced to $ 42,000.This price is also the lowest point for JPM to predict BTC.

In particular, miners with high production costs are facing major pressures due to profitability.The increase of half to half the closer may be suppressed.

Meme currency violence and cottage season

Bitcoin leads the development of cryptocurrencies this year, but the performance of Congzha currency may soon start to win.

Last week, the tokens Doge and Shib (SHIB) with the theme of dogs rose 50%to 100%, and the price of new MEMEs such as PEPE, BONK and Dogwifhat (WIF) rose 100%to 200%during this period.

Last week, the “huge” Meme currency rebounded may be the “early signs” of Altseason.However, this round is not the same as before that funds are mainly driven by institutions, and funds that cannot guarantee that they flow to Bitcoin will eventually flow to smaller assets.However, as the prices of mainstream currencies risk may drive the risk appetite of stock funds, this part of the money will probably flow to more risk -risk assets, which is due to human nature.

Some analysts pointed out that to confirm that Altseason, the key signal that needs to be found is that ETH exceeds the price threshold of $ 3,500.

Will VC return to cryptocurrencies?

Since March 2022, the venture capital investment of encrypted startups has increased for the first time, reaching $ 1.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023.According to the recent Pitchbook report, this number increased by 2.5%over the third quarter.

In the past month, more than many initial projects have announced financing, including Lava Protocol, Analog, Helika, Truflation and Omega.A16Z announced an investment of $ 100 million in EigenLayer Eigenlayer in Ethereum.Binance Labs announced a total of 3.2 million US dollars in January seed round financing.

Avail announced its $ 27 million seed round financing led by Founders Fund and Dragonfly.The venture capital company Hack VC raised $ 150 million to invest in early cryptocurrency and AI startups.

The Altlayer of the Rollups project, the Rollups project, received $ 14.4 million in strategic financing, led by Polychain Capital and Hack VC.

The digital asset trading platform Ouinex raised more than $ 4 million from the community through the seed wheel and private equity wheel.

The prediction market supported by artificial intelligence (AI) Predx, raised 500,000 US dollars of pre -seeds

Capital flow

The stock fund has ushered in a strong inflow ($ 10 billion) for the sixth consecutive week, with a total inflow ($ 84 billion) the highest in two years.Among them, US stock funds ($ 11.3 billion) are the main sources of inflow.The inflow of science and technology funds ($ 4.7 billion) has also risen to the highest 6 months.Bonds ($ 13.8 billion) and monetary market funds ($ 38.7 billion) also recorded strong inflows.The inflows of scientific and technological stocks including large companies such as Apple and Nvidda reached 4.7 billion US dollars, the highest level since August, and it is expected to set an annual record of $ 98.8 billion.