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Written by: Pzai, Foresight News
On April 24, Fidelity said on X, “The supply of Bitcoin on exchanges is declining due to the purchase of listed companies. This situation is expected to accelerate in the near future.” Since the US election, Trump’s easing expectations for the crypto space have undoubtedly increased the market’s potential expectations, while listed companies have purchased nearly 350,000 bitcoins.
The market game between exchanges, on-chain giant whales and listed companies is also in full swing.Under the storm of the market, where will Bitcoin go in the future?This article will analyze the Bitcoin data indicators and take a look at the market trends.
The existing number of Bitcoin exchanges stocks is 2.6 million, the lowest level since November 2018.More than 425,000 bitcoins have been transferred from exchanges since November 2024.
In this indicator, an important time point was in the second half of 2024, especially after Trump’s victory, which was a large outflow. At that time, US listed companies bought in large quantities, and this trend is still showing a downward trend today, reflected in the fact that relevant entities (listed companies, etc.) are increasing their Bitcoin reserves.
Since the U.S. election, nearly 350,000 Bitcoins have been added to the holdings of listed companies.Judging from the growth curve of Bitcoin holdings of the large holding company Strategy, it has increased its holdings by 107,000 in two weeks since November 10, 2024, and continued to increase its holdings to more than 531,000, with an average monthly increase of 42,000.Among the positions distribution of listed companies, 8 companies have more than 10,000 Bitcoins, and their positions have maintained a growth trend in the past six months.
Most of the Bitcoin mNAV (stock market value to holding market value ratio) of these listed companies is between 1.4 and 2.25. If benchmarked at a 1:1 ratio, it is expected to release US$50 billion in liquidity to the Bitcoin market.Outside the United States, Asian listed companies such as Japan’s Metaplanet and Hong Kong’s HK Asia Holdings are all increasing their configurations. Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich also said that he plans to double the Bitcoin holdings from 5,000 this year.
Before January 2025, the spot Bitcoin ETF data also fits the outflow of the exchange, with a maximum daily inflow of 18,000 Bitcoins, which to a certain extent promoted the surge in Bitcoin.Prior to the election, Strategy’s average position average was $42,000, and then it continued to increase its position to $67,000, proving that Bitcoin’s long-term value is recognized by the market.
In addition, U.S. policy makers are also accelerating the compliance reserve process. According to Bitcoin Laws data, three of the 27 states in the United States that have submitted Bitcoin reserve bills have entered the second phase of submission (Arizona, New Hampshire, Texas), of which Arizona has entered the second phase of review.On March 7, White House AI and cryptocurrency adviser David Sacks said President Trump had signed an executive order on Bitcoin’s strategic reserves, but only reserves Bitcoin confiscated through criminal or civil processes.
According to on-chain data statistics, the US government holds more than 183,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 0.92% of the existing Bitcoin circulation reserves, and its current market value exceeds US$16.4 billion.This number will further grow as the state bill is gradually implemented, which will also lower the threshold for US companies on Bitcoin reserves.
For the industry, the entry of traditional funds provides a reassurance for the market, and since most listed companies’ Bitcoin investments are above the cost line (such as Strategy 1.4 times and Tesla 2.78 times), expectations for Bitcoin investment are also optimistic.As the compliance direction in the encryption field and the “Trump reserve” are settled, ETF inflows have also grown again, and it is expected to continue to strengthen the buying trend of listed companies.
