jakiro
Shaw, Bitcoin Vision
Starting late at night on November 13, cryptocurrencies continued to decline.The market’s decline accelerated in the early morning of the 14th. Bitcoin briefly fell below US$99,000, once touching US$98,000.4, falling to its lowest point since early May; Ethereum briefly fell below US$3,200, once touching US$3,154.22, a 24-hour drop of nearly 7%.Solana, Dogecoin, XRP, etc. all experienced significant declines.In the past 24 hours, the entire network was liquidated to US$721 million, with long orders liquidated at US$582 million and short orders liquidated at US$139 million.
The U.S. government “shutdown” has ended, recent cryptocurrency regulatory and policy benefits have also appeared from time to time, butWhy has the market rebound been weak and instead continued to decline?What else is holding back cryptocurrencies’ recovery?, is it currently undergoing a deep adjustment or has it entered a bear market?Can there be another wave of rising prices before the end of the year?
1. Cryptocurrency rebound is weak and the market continues to be weak
The cryptocurrency market fell rapidly again this morning, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $99,000 and once touching $98,000.4, fell to the lowest since early May, with a 24-hour drop of nearly 3%.Ethereum briefly fell below $3,200 and once hit $3,154.22, a 24-hour drop of more than 6.6%.Solana, Dogecoin, XRP, etc. all experienced significant declines.Solana fell 7.49%, Dogecoin fell 5.21%, and XRP fell 2.43%.
Coinglass data shows,In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated US$721 million, and more than 193,000 people were liquidated, including US$582 million for long orders and US$139 million for short orders., the main force is to explode multiple orders.The liquidation of BTC was US$261 million, the liquidation of ETH was US$213 million, and the liquidation of SOL was US$49.778 million.
In addition, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell collectively in the day’s trading on Thursday, with Nasdaq stocks dominated by technology stocks.The Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 2.29%.Technology giants generally fell, with Tesla closing down 6.64% and Nvidia falling 3.58%..
Negative factors such as the fading optimism after the end of the U.S. government’s “shutdown”, the continued decline in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, ETF fund flows, and whale selling have hindered the recovery of the cryptocurrency market.
2. The U.S. government’s “shutdown” has ended, but it will take time for the economy to recover
On November 13, US President Trump signed the temporary funding bill.The longest government shutdown in U.S. history comes to an end.The bill would provide continued funding to the federal government, allowing most government agencies to receive operating funding until January 30, 2026.However, the partisanship between the Republican and Democratic parties in the United States continues.The budget deadline at the end of January next year, the battle over national health insurance subsidies, and even the fiscal offensive and defense before next year’s midterm elections will all become the main battlefield where the two parties continue to fight.
This longest “suspension” in history has had a huge negative impact on the economy and market.Trump said the government shutdown caused $1.5 trillion in losses, and it will take weeks or even months to truly calculate the full impact of the losses.White House economic adviser Hassett said that due to the government’s “shutdown”, only employment data will be released within a month, and no unemployment rate data will be released.He predicts that U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth will fall by 1.5 percentage points in the fourth quarter due to the government shutdown.The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the six-week shutdown will reduce fourth-quarter GDP by 1.5 percentage points, resulting in a net loss of about $11 billion.A spokesman for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that the IMF has noticed signs of weakness in the U.S. economy.Partly affected by the government shutdown, U.S. GDP growth in the fourth quarter is expected to be lower than the previous IMF forecast of 1.9%.
The short-lived optimism brought about by the end of the U.S. government shutdown quickly dissipated.Market focus turns to a slew of delayed economic data, uncertainty over the prospect of Fed rate cuts and worries about highly valued technology stocks, triggering a “risk-off mode”, a broad sell-off in highly valued technology stocks and risk assets.The deterioration in risk sentiment has also spread to the crypto market, triggering a continued decline in crypto assets.
3. Disagreement within the Federal Reserve over interest rate cuts continues to increase, and many voting committee members are “hawkish”
Disagreement within the Fed continues to grow over whether to continue cutting interest rates in December, many Federal Reserve Board members have recently expressed their opinions intensively on the December interest rate decision.Fed Governor MilanOn Wednesday, he said again that he expected inflation to fall back and reiterated his call for lower interest rates.Milan believes that monetary policy must be adjusted in place to get it out of an overly tight state, thereby eliminating some of the economic downside risks.Most local Fed voting committees are not enthusiastic about cutting interest rates in December.There are currently four voting regional Fed presidents (Boston Fed Collins, St. Louis Fed Musallem, Chicago Fed Goolsby, and Kansas Fed Fed Schmid, who voted against the October rate cut resolution) did not actively push for another interest rate cut in December.Federal Reserve Governor HarmackIt said interest rate policy should remain restrictive in order to put downward pressure on inflation levels that remain a concern.In addition, the latest statementMinneapolis Fed President Neel KashkariSaid that he does not support the Fed’s last interest rate cut decision, but still remains on the sidelines on the best course of action for the December meeting.Regarding the upcoming interest rate decision in December, he said that he can put forward reasons for cutting interest rates based on the trend of the data, or he can put forward reasons for keeping interest rates unchanged. We have to wait and see.
According to CME’s “Fed Watch” data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 51.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 48.4%.The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by January next year is 50.3%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 29.1%, and the probability of cumulative interest rate cuts by 50 basis points is 20.6%.In addition, federal funds futures and overnight index swap (OIS) contracts linked to the Federal Reserve’s December 9-10 meeting show that the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is slightly less than 50%.
The deepening internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve, as well as the intensive statements of “hawkishness” by many voting committee members, have led to declining market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December., investors are worried about whether liquidity is sufficient and whether they can smoothly enter risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.
4. ETF capital inflows have not yet recovered, and the market continues to be under pressure
CoinShares latest weekly report statedDigital asset investment products saw outflows for the second consecutive week last week, totaling $1.17 billion.Affected by the continued volatility in the crypto market and the uncertainty about the prospect of a U.S. interest rate cut in December, market sentiment is pessimistic, but ETP trading volume remains at a high of $43 billion.Last week, Bitcoin outflows totaled US$932 million; Ethereum also experienced large outflows, totaling US$438 million.
Farside Investors data shows that the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of US$610 million yesterday, and the spot Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of US$122 million yesterday.This week, the Ethereum ETF experienced net outflows for three consecutive days, totaling $413 million.
The flow of ETF funds is a key indicator for institutional investors in the crypto market. Continued ETF fund inflows are a very important driving factor for the bull market in 2025.The continued net outflow of ETF funds shows that the current crypto market has temporarily lost a major rebound boost..
5. Long-term holders took profits, and whale selling increased downward pressure on the market.
CryptoQuant data shows,Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) are selling Bitcoin at an accelerated pace, about 815,000 Bitcoins were sold in the past 30 days, setting a new high since January 2024.Selling pressure is weighing on prices as demand contracts.Analyst Crazzyblock said long-term investors have cashed in some of their profits through selling in recent months.In addition, OnchainLens monitored that the SharpLink-related wallet transferred 4,363.5 ETH to the OKX exchange, worth approximately US$14.47 million, and was suspected of selling. Lookonchain monitored that an anonymous hacker panic-sold when the market fell – selling 2,243 Ethereum (approximately US$8.05 million) at a price of US$3,589.
According to OnchainLens monitoring, the 20-fold short position in Bitcoin held by a certain whale currently has a floating profit of more than US$15 million.The giant whale has made a cumulative profit of more than $41.7 million through multiple short-selling operations on Bitcoin.Onchain Lens also monitored that the whale, which had previously lent and sold 66,000 ETH and repurchased 257,543 ETH when the market fell, deposited 23,500 ETH (approximately $82.62 million) into AaveV3, lent another 40 million USDC and transferred it to Binance, then purchased another 20,787 ETH (approximately US$73.81 million) and deposited it again into Aave V3.On-chain analyst Ai Ai monitored that a certain address (0x7fe…17ac6) opened short orders for BTC, ETH, HYPE, and SOL. The current total position is 74.09 million US dollars, with a floating profit of 1.805 million US dollars. Among them, the ETH short order has the largest floating profit, reaching 541,000 US dollars.
Profit-taking by long-term holders and selling by whales put a lot of downward pressure on the market.The frequent trading of whale leverage contracts makes it difficult to effectively alleviate market volatility..
6. Interpretation of market trends of cryptocurrency and other assets
The expected recovery and rise in the crypto market has not yet arrived, but has continued to decline and adjust.Other asset markets around the world are not seeing exciting moves either.Will the global market recover in the rest of 2025? Is the crypto market still undergoing a deep correction, or will it turn from bullish to bearish?let’s take a lookWhat are the interpretations of the market?.
1. Matrixport issued a statement stating“Cryptocurrency trading volumes remain weak relative to market size. Over the past 12 months, total market capitalization rose from $2.4 trillion to $3.7 trillion, while daily trading volume fell by 50% from $352 billion to $178 billion. This divergence may indicate more limited market participation and weakening upward momentum,If this continues, a cautious stance may be warranted.Bitcoin may have entered a mini-bear market based on recent on-chain indicators.While there are multiple potential catalysts, its ability to drive a sustained upward trend remains uncertain amid low liquidity, with reported trading activity and fee revenue remaining subdued.”
2. Morgan Stanley strategist Denny Galindo said, the crypto market has entered the “autumn phase” of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle and advised investors to harvest profits before a potential “winter” arrives.He said that historical data shows that Bitcoin’s price cycle shows a stable rhythm of “three rises and one fall”.Galindo advises investors to lock in gains in advance to prepare for the coming crypto winter.
3. Wintermute means, “Bitcoin still moves with the stock market, but only when the market goes down. The correlation coefficient remains high around 0.8, but Bitcoin reacts more strongly to Nasdaq declines than increases. This negative performance shift has reached levels not seen since late 2022, while current prices are hovering near all-time highs.”
4. According to the J.P. Morgan analyst team, Bitcoin’s room to fall from current prices is “very limited,” with support at about $94,000.Analysts, meanwhile, reiterated last week’s forecast for Bitcoin price gains of around $170,000 over the next 6-12 months, based on a volatility-adjusted comparison of Bitcoin and gold.
5. Strategy founder Michael Saylor said, Bitcoin’s market value will surpass gold in 2035, and firmly predicts: “I have no doubt that by 2035, Bitcoin will become a larger asset class than gold.”
6. Crypto analyst @ali_charts wrote:, if this Bitcoin cycle is similar to the 2015–2018 or 2018–2022 trends, with the top occurring on October 26, a macro downtrend may have begun.
7. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said, the market’s deleveraging process is still continuing, excess risks are being eliminated, and the use of leverage is gradually cooling down.Open interest is down 21% over the past three months (90-day change) and leveraged positions are falling significantly.During bull market phases, a decline in leveraged positions often precedes a trend reversal, helping to clean up the market and allow it to rebuild on a healthier basis.
8. Alliance DAO co-founder QwQiao posted a message, although macro factors such as the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE), the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) reconstruction and interest rate cuts and other indicators point to market gains, intuitively it is all over.He emphasized the inevitability of the four-year cycle prophecy, which leaves the market at a frustrating crossroads.and observed that most smart traders and long-term investors have turned bearish.QwQiao sees artificial intelligence (AI) as the only factor dominating the cycle, far exceeding liquidity indicators and technical signals.He warned that if the AI bubble bursts, the entire market will collapse; conversely, if AI-related stocks continue to rise, bears will be wrong about everything.He likened NVIDIA (NVDA) to the Bitcoin of crypto, noting that when AI stocks (particularly NVIDIA) rise, money flows out of other assets like crypto, causing crypto to fall and vice versa, creating a binary pattern of AI stocks vs. everything.
9. Brief analysis of Anderson Economic Group LLCIt is pointed out that the impact of the longest U.S. government shutdown in history on the economy will be significantly greater than the shutdown from 2018 to 2019.Its full impact has yet to be fully felt.
