jakiro
With the capital rate of a large number of cottage coins soared to the highest level of nearly three years, the cong coin quotation dominated by emotions finally ushered in a severe shock after the climax.On December 9, without any obvious favorable factor, the collective plunge of the cottage coins caused the futures market to be forced to liquidate about 1.6 billion US dollars.According to COINMARKETCAP data, on December 9, the number of dollars in the top 100 currency of the market value was 22.3%, and the increase in many currencies in this round of bull markets was wiped by half.Why does the market suddenly plummet?
Under normal circumstances, the bear market has frequently risen, while the bull market often declines.The purpose of the rapid decline is to implement accurate beheading operations on lever with a thunderstorm.At the same time, through the “horror decline”, clean the bulls in the field and deter the potential bulls outside the field.Conversely, the rising is also the same.
When the rapid decline occurred, many investors who were full of confidence in the bull market would evacuate panic, and those who originally planned to copy the bottom thought that the market had not yet bottomed out, thereby ending the bottom -up plan.Therefore, in the process of bull market, once the market adjustment is often in place through the rapid decline of squeezing leveraged plates.The bottom -up signal is the emergence of the number of days.On the contrary, if the decline is unfolded in a slow form and allows investors to have enough time to think and judge, then the “bottom” you think is not the real bottom.
The decline in December 9 has the release of panic and the conditions of the quantity of the output. Therefore, the nature of the adjustment still belongs to the technical adjustment of the bull market process.
>
From the perspective of the transaction, it is too early to talk about the cottage market.First of all, in the past week, regardless of the rise and fall of the market, the daily transaction proportion of altars has maintained more than 40%, and the focus of the funds game has significantly shifted to the cottage. Once this trend is formed, it will often not change easily.At the same time, the market does not lack hotspots with money -making effects at almost any time. Even on December 9th, the market has plummeted. The market value ranks 150 currencies, and 5%of the currency still rises against the trend.This shows that market risk appetite has always maintained a higher level.
Secondly, the current fanatic and transaction congestion of the cottage coins far from reaching the level when the top of 2021 is at the top of 2021.For example, in March 2021, the daily transaction proportion of cottage coins once was as high as 70%, and Fil’s transaction volume exceeded BTC for many days.The current cottage currency market is still in an orderly rotation state, and there is no phenomenon that a certain section or currency continues to the rainbow market liquidity at a high valuation premium.
However, it is important to emphasize that as the funds are not different from scanning the goods and the end of the low -lying stage, the diversion of the cottage market will inevitably.Although the main line of the new market is still brewing, from the past experience, adhering to the fundamental logic is still the best strategy for defense counterattack.
According to the track division, the currency of fundamentals can be divided into deep value type and rapid growth.Deep -value currency usually belongs to projects with stable competition and strong industry status.These projects have a certain ability to make hematopoiesis, and their internal system reform and market business strategy optimization are also continuously promoting.Once the industry enters the prosperity cycle, they are most likely to usher in Davis’s double -clicking opportunity.The most typical example is the old lead projects such as UNI, AAVE, Link, etc. I repeatedly mentioned.Take UNI and AAVE as an example. According to the DEFiance Captial data, the former’s market share in the field of mainstream asset trading is 60%, and the latter’s market share in the field of active loans is 65%, which belongs to the hegemon of Dex and Lend.Since August 5, with the continuous fermentation of the bull market, the TVL of these Defi projects has generally increased by 3-5 times, and the daily transaction volume has also increased by 5-10 times.As the leader in the segment, the blood -making capacity of UNI and AAVE has been unprecedentedly improved.
In addition, in the case of gradually stabilizing the market size, only head companies have the ability to improve corporate profits through price increases.Because with the establishment of brand advantages, scale effects, and customer stickiness, users’ acceptance of products or service price increases will also increase accordingly.For example, UNIWAP began to charge 0.15%of the exchange fees for certain tokens in its web applications and wallets in October 2023, and in April 2024, the exchange fee was increased by 0.25%from 0.15%.As of now, the front -end charges have brought more than $ 100 million in income to Uniswap Labs, which means that even if the Treasury funds are exhausted, Uniswap still has the source of funds for maintenance and research and development.
As the industry enters the maturity period, the head company (project) will have more income to enhance the return on investment, such as increasing dividends or repurchase.In February of this year, the Uniswap Foundation issued a proposal to distribute some agreement costs to the UNI pledgers; in July, the AAVE governance team proposed that some agreement costs were used to repurchase the governance token AAVE.Although the interests of all parties are still playing, the probability of these proposals is only a matter of time.In contrast, the small DEFI protocol has become a problem with survival. Obviously, there is no extra liquidity to enhance the return of shareholders.
On December 12, the Trump family’s World Liberty, Financial) purchased three tokens three tokens in ETH, LINK, and AAVE, and the purchase amount was $ 10 million, $ 1 million, and $ 1 million.It is worth noting that three days before the Trump family DEFI agreed to purchase tokens, Trump announced that the encrypted Tsar David Sacks will be the crypto supervisor of the new government.Sacks is a supporter of asset token.The recent bright CRV is the target of Berlaide’s asset -based token.According to Bitwise’s forecast, with the gradual entry of Wall Street, the scale of RWA assets is expected to increase from US $ 13.7 billion in 2024 to more than $ 50 billion in 2025, which also means that Defi will usher in new growth points in the future.
In short, the leader of the DEFI segments is still a clearer main line in the cottage market.For investors who are pursuing certainty, properly allocating some DEFI assets is also a good choice.As for how to choose the rapid growth currency, we will focus on the next issue.
In terms of operation, in the market shift period, the principle of adhering to the “Strong Hengqiang” is the best way to screen the next stage.In terms of subject selection, there are two main standards for reference: one is that the price of the currency has taken the lead in breaking the pressure zone in March this year; the other is that the currency price fell the smallest at the time of callback, and the largest increase at the rebound.
