jakiro
Deng Tong, Bitchain Vision
The cow returns, return quickly!
Overnight, the crypto market rebounded sharply, and Bitcoin rose again to more than $100,000, with a maximum of more than $103,000. Ethereum even achieved an increase of more than 20%.The situation in the crypto market is very good.As of press time, BTC rose 4.7% to $102,804.In addition, many other mainstream currencies have achieved double-digit increases.
What are the positive factors that are helping the encryption market recover rapidly?How much can this round of market rise?
1. Many states in the United States may start crypto reserve competition
On May 6, New Hampshire will Gov. Ayote release a notice on social media, announcing that New Hampshire will pass a bill passed by the state Senate and House of Representatives, allowing the state to “invest cryptocurrencies and precious metals.”House Bill 302, introduced in New Hampshire in January, would allow the state’s finance department to use funds to invest in cryptocurrencies with a market capitalization of more than $500 billion.“The state that ‘not free, rather die’ is leading the future of business and digital assets,” New Hampshire Republican said in a May 6 X post.With the signing of the bill, New Hampshire became the first of several U.S. states to consider passing legislation to establish strategic bitcoin reserves, including an initiative to work with the federal government.
Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs then signed a bill on May 7 that allows the state to retain unclaimed cryptocurrencies for at least three years and deposit them into the “Bitcoin and Digital Asset Reserve Fund.”House Bill 2749 allows Arizona to claim abandoned digital assets without replying to any communication within three years.The state’s custodians can pledge these cryptocurrencies to earn rewards or get airdrops.
Meanwhile, on the same day,The Texas House Committee voted 9-4 to pass a Republican-backed bill to build Bitcoin reserves, which now only needs to be passed by the entire house to submit to Gov. Greg Abbott’s desk.
North Carolina’s Digital Asset Investment Act will authorize the state’s Treasury Secretary to invest 5% of any designated funds in “qualified digital assets.”The bill was passed in the second reading on April 30 with 71 votes in favor and 44 votes against the House of Representatives and was submitted to the Senate for consideration.The bill will also “examine the feasibility of allowing state retirement income plan members to make such investments (via cryptocurrency ETP)” and study the establishment of state reserves to hold cryptocurrencies seized or forfeited.
Ishmael Green, partner at Diaz Reus, said he expects about six states to follow New Hampshire’s approach in the short and medium term—“because states are seeking to hedge inflation in addition to protecting their balance sheets.”
David Lawant, FalconX research director, said he also expects at least a few more states to enact such laws in the next six to 12 months.
More content can be viewedWhat are the highlights of the New Hampshire Bitcoin Reserves Act?Will it trigger the states to follow suit?》
What states are next after New Hampshire wins the cryptocurrency reserve race?》
2. The United States and the United Kingdom reach a trade agreement
The United States and the United Kingdom announced a trade agreement on Thursday, May 8, the first formal trade agreement reached by US President Trump since launching a global reciprocal tariff policy.Trump called the agreement a “historic breakthrough”, while British Prime Minister Stamer said that it was a “historic day” to reach a consensus on the anniversary of the victory of World War II.
According to Trump, the UK will open its market to the US on a number of agricultural products, including US beef, ethanol and “almost all products produced by our farmers”, which are expected to involve “billions of dollars” of exports.
On the UK side, Starmer pointed out that the agreement is “extremely important” to the UK’s automobile and steel industry.According to the British Prime Minister’s Office (Downing Street),The U.S. import tariffs on British cars will be reduced from 25% to 10%.In addition, the United States will relax tariffs on British steel and aluminum products.
Although the agreement provisions still need to be further determined, the Trump administration is eager to announce this initial result, attracting market attention.”This reflects the increasingly urgent desire of the Trump administration to seek room for compromise before tariff measures affect economic growth and inflation,” said Paul Ashworth, an analyst at Capital Economics.
Trump denied exaggerating the importance of the agreement, saying that the agreement was “the best result that can be reached at present.”
U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnik said that increasing market access for U.S. exporters would bring billions of dollars in revenue after Trump announced a trade deal with the UK.Lutnik said in the Oval Office:“They agree to open up the market, which will add $5 billion to U.S. exporters.” “We still have 10% tariffs, which will bring $6 billion in revenue to the U.S..”Lutnik said the agreement would not put pressure on the British economy and that British workers would not be negatively affected by the agreement.He added that the agreement means the UK can export 100,000 cars to the United States, “only pay a 10% tariff.”
The price of Bitcoin rose to more than $100,000, the Dow Jones rose 500 points and the S&P 500 rose 1.47%.
“There are many other deals in serious negotiation stages,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.
The U.S.-UK agreement will mark a ease in global trade tensions, boosting risk appetite in various markets, including cryptocurrencies.
3. The US dollar stablecoin bill is about to vote, and many giants enter the stablecoin market
The U.S. Senate is scheduled to hold a key vote on the GENIUS stablecoin bill this Thursday (Friday Beijing time).The bill requires stablecoins to be fully backed by current assets such as the US dollar and short-term Treasury bonds.Therefore, the bill requires 60 votes to pass and requires the support of Democratic senators.Despite the variables encountered on the eve of the vote, nine Democratic senators announced their withdrawal of support.butThe possibility of this bill passing is very high.Because the dollar stablecoin is expected to be one of the main buyers of US Treasury bonds in the futureUS Treasury Secretary Bescent said that the demand for US Treasury bonds from digital assets will reach as high as $2 trillion.The CEO of Coinbase also said that the GENIUS bill may eventually approach the president’s signing in the form of bipartisan support.
While the United States is enacting the stablecoin bill,Many American Internet giants are also entering the stablecoin market.
Patrick Collison, CEO of global payment platform Stripe, announced on May 5 that it is developing a stablecoin product based on the US dollar, mainly aimed at markets outside the United States.Stripe announced a new feature on May 7 that allows platform customers to “send, receive and hold dollar stablecoin account balances, similar to how traditional fiat bank accounts operate. The account supports Circle’s USDC and Bridge’s USDB, which was acquired by Stripe in October 2024. The service will cover more than 100 countries including Argentina, Chile, Turkey, Colombia and Peru.
in addition,Meta, which has more than 3 billion daily active users, is considering integrating stablecoins, to reduce the payment costs compared to fiat currencies, such as payments to Instagram creators.According to the report, “The company does not seem to have determined which stablecoin is used in detail.”Additionally, Meta has “contacted crypto infrastructure companies to address the issue of fees paid across regions.”The company also hired “former Ripple executive Ginger Baker as vice president of product.”
IV. SEC and Ripple Reconciliation
According to a May 8 statement from the Securities and Exchange Commission, the SEC and Ripple filed a joint settlement letter in a New York court asking for the lifting of the August 2024 ban against Ripple and returning $75 million of the $125 million civil fine to the cryptocurrency company.
The settlement comes as the SEC fully withdraws from a series of cryptocurrency investigations and lawsuits initiated during Jensler’s term.After Trump took office in January and appointed cryptocurrency-friendly Paul Atkins as the new SEC chairman, the SEC’s attitude towards cryptocurrency regulation took a 180-degree turn.
But SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw criticized the pending transaction in a May 8 statement, saying it would undermine regulators’ ability to regulate cryptocurrency companies and undermine court rulings.
“This settlement, coupled with the procedural demolition of the SEC’s crypto-enforcement program, has done a great job of harming the investing public and undermining the role of the court in interpreting our securities laws,” she said. “At the same time, this settlement, along with a series of dismissal decisions, has collectively damaged the credibility of our attorneys in court, who were asked today to take a legal stance that was contrary to a few months ago.”
Meanwhile, Crenshaw believes that if Judge Torres accepts the settlement, it will erase “the investor protection we have won” and leave a “regulatory vacuum” until the cryptocurrency task force develops a regulatory framework.”This settlement is not in the best interest of investors and markets our institutions serve and protect. It brings more questions than answers.”
V. SEC considers setting new rules to relax securities token issuance
In a speech delivered on May 8, the Securities and Exchange Commission Commissioner Hester Peirce said the committee is considering revising the rules to allow companies to issue tokenized securities more freely.
In his speech, Pierce said regulators are “considering potential exemptions to companies that issue, trade and settle securities using blockchain technology” to exempt them from certain registration requirements.For example, a decentralized exchange (DEX) may no longer need to be registered as a “broker, clearing agency, or exchange.”The SEC has previously issued several Wells notices to Uniswap and other DEXs alleging that it failed to register as a stock exchange.Businesses “should not comply with inappropriate regulations, which are in many cases developed before the technology tested appears and may be cancelled because of the characteristics of the technology”.
6. Concerns about stagflation are “favorable” for crypto assets
The Federal Reserve decided on May 7 to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, which strengthened the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stressed in his post-conference speech that the risk of stagflation is rising—slow economic growth and sustained inflation—in part because of Trump’s tariff policies.
“The Fed seems to expect both inflation and unemployment to rise in the future,” Kobeissi Letter said on X, adding: “They are temporarily suspending interest rate cuts to see which part of its dual mission will heat up further. The uncertainty remains.”
This environment enhances Bitcoin’s status as a means of storage of value, which is often compared to “digital gold.”Fearing that inflationary pressures will erode fiat currencies, investors are using Bitcoin as a hedge, just as when cryptocurrencies rose in 2020 during monetary easing.
“The Fed is worried about stagflation, and we think this result is good for Bitcoin,” said Zach Pandl, research director at Grayscale.
7. Cryptocurrency market technology rebounds
From a technical point of view, the current rise in cryptocurrencies is part of a rebound starting at the $2.4 trillion support level.The last time the market value exceeded the $3 trillion mark was on March 3, followed by a tariff-induced sell-off that caused the market value to fall to $2.27 trillion.The current total market value of the crypto market is $3.03 trillion, trying to break through the resistance zone between $3.1 trillion and $3.25 trillion.
Cryptocurrency market value daily chart.
If this happens, it will indicate that the bulls have the ability to maintain the uptrend and turn their sights to an all-time high of over $3.69 trillion.Daily RSI has steadily risen from oversold status 30 on April 7 to the current 68, indicating that bullish momentum is accelerating.
8. How much can this round of market rise?
Standard Chartered Bank: Q2$120,000The goal may be too low.
Ben Caselin, VALR Chief Marketing Officer: As Bitcoin seeks to consolidate its value above $100,000, it is “very likely”It quickly hit a new high of more than $110,000.“Retail will only enter the second half of the traditional four-year cycle of Bitcoin, which could reach its macro peak in the fourth quarter of this year.”
Charlie Sherry, Treasurer of Australian cryptocurrency exchange BTC Markets: While we may see psychological resistance at the $100,000 mark,It seems inevitable that Bitcoin will add another zero to the price.
Cryptocurrency Entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano:The trade deal means the possibility that we will hit an all-time high in 2025 is increasing.
