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Author: Patrick Bush, Matthew Sigel, Source:
Summary of key points
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The “giant whales” who have held it for a long time continue to hold it, and the number of Bitcoins held for more than 5 years continues to rise.
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The sell-off was concentrated on mid-term holders rather than the earliest holding wallet addresses.
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The futures market appears to have bottomed out, with funding rates and open interest both at oversold levels.
Bitcoin (BTC) investors are panicking
Data source: Glassnode, as of November 13, 2025.
ETP outflows lead to early market weakness
Price action over the past 30 days has been particularly negative for Bitcoin holders, with the price down 13% amid heavy selling pressure.Since October 10, 2025, the balance of Bitcoin ETP has decreased by 49,300, accounting for approximately 2% of the total assets under management..Weaker players who bought when prices were near their peak have sold off amid uncertainty about interest rate cuts and the unclear future of artificial intelligence development.Even more worryingly, many are pointing the finger of price weakness at early Bitcoin “whales.”For example, one “Satoshi Nakamoto era” whale sold $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin during the week of November 14, virtually emptying his entire wallet.Many people think thatSenior whales often predict long-term trends by buying or selling Bitcoin at key nodes..As a result, the sentiment in the cryptocurrency community turned pessimistic, with the panic/greed index falling to its lowest level since the tariff controversy broke out in March 2025.
Smaller holders will gradually gather over 1-2 years, while larger whales will disperse; recent net changes have been flat.
Whale positions are lower in the long term and higher in the short term
Data source: Glassnode, as of November 13, 2025.
Rather than assuming that the recent Bitcoin price weakness is due to selling by large investors, it is better to take a comprehensive look at the distribution of financial flows among different holder groups.On-chain data shows that capital flows are far more complex than a simple “whale dump.”If we observe the holdings of whales holding more than 1,000 Bitcoins, we can clearly see that their Bitcoin holdings have been decreasing since November 2023.In fact,Whales holding 10,000 to 100,000 Bitcoins have reduced their holdings by 6% and 11% in the past 6 months and 12 months respectively.The amount of these reductions was absorbed by “little whales” holding 100 to 1,000 Bitcoins.This smaller group of investors increased their holdings by 9% and 23% in the past 6 months and 12 months respectively.For reference, Bitcoin itself is up about 170% over the past two years.
Open interest in Bitcoin futures (BTC) increased by 6% in November.
Short-term currency holders turn into net buyers
Short-term data tells a different story:Some whale groups have been increasing their holdings of Bitcoin.Groups holding 10,000 to 100,000 Bitcoins have increased their holdings by approximately 3%, 2.5%, and 0.84% in the past 30 days, 60 days, and 90 days respectively..This likely reflects the tariff-induced sell-off and subsequent liquidation, which caused Bitcoin futures open interest to decrease by approximately 19% in a 12-hour period and the price to fall by more than 20%.
The oldest Bitcoin whales are holding on, while mid-term holders are selling.
Data source: Glassnode, as of November 13, 2025.
Mid-term holders are the real sellers
However, analyzing “whale data” solely by holding size does not provide a complete picture.This view ignores the process by which experienced old whales transfer tokens to newer investors.To gain a deeper understanding, we looked at the “last active transfer” time of Bitcoin balances, which represents the time elapsed since the token was last transferred.The transfer means the tokens were likely sold to different holders.
Over the past 30 days, selling pressure has been mainly concentrated on Bitcoin investors who have held it for less than five years, while investors who have held it longer have mostly maintained or increased their holdings.It is worth noting that in the past 6 months, the ownership structure of holders has shifted from the group with a holding time of 3-5 years to a group with a holding time of 6 months-2 years, indicating a trend of shifting from mid-term holders to new holders.
Among the groups with longer holding times (i.e. investors who have held coins for more than 5 years), the token circulation rate is still lower relative to other groups.In contrast,The largest trading volume group is Bitcoin holders whose last transaction was 3-5 years ago, the token circulation rate in this range continues to decline in each study period.Over the past two years, the supply in this range has dropped by 32% as a large number of Bitcoins have been moved to new addresses.Considering that these Bitcoins were likely accumulated during the last cycle downturn, their holders appear to be more interested in cyclical trading than long-term investing.
At the same time,The number of Bitcoins held for more than five years has increased by a net increase of 278,000 compared to two years ago.This increase reflects the gradual entry of newer Bitcoin into 5+ year holding periods rather than a new round of accumulation, but it still shows that long-term holders remain confident.While more granular analysis may yield additional insights, the overall trend remains encouraging: long-term holders continue to accumulate and hold on.
Bitcoin futures basis falls to lowest level since fall 2023
Data source: Glassnode, as of November 13, 2025.
Speculation in futures markets resets
One of the best measures of speculation is the annualized basis cost paid by traders willing to go long Bitcoin Perpetual Futures (PERP).Because perpetual futures never settle, their price is aligned with the spot price by charging interest to the counterparty.If the perpetual contract price is higher than the spot price, the long side of the trade must pay the short side interest proportional to the spot/perpetual contract price difference.Because the upside potential of cryptocurrencies is asymmetric, the basis of a perpetual futures contract is almost always positive.
When long demand for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin is low, the basis falls significantly.Recently, we have seenBitcoin futures open interest has fallen sharply, down 20% in Bitcoin and 32% in USD since October 9, 2025.This partly explains the sharp drop in funding rates.Of course, if people were bullish on Bitcoin, funding rates would climb quickly.
In the past, long-term declines in Bitcoin prices have often been accompanied by bursts of speculation, with funding rates for perpetual contracts averaging as high as 40% on some days.We have not seen such a dramatic increase in funding rates since March 2024.However, it is important to note that projects like Ethena, as well as some veteran traders, have accumulated large long positions in spot cryptocurrencies and short positions in perpetual contracts.For Ethena alone, its total value locked (TVL) reached $14 billion in October 2025, but has since plummeted to $8.3 billion.These huge basis trades can artificially drive funding rates so low that they are no longer effective.
It is important to note that a funding rate plunge of the magnitude we just witnessed is typically associated with oversold conditions.This is especially true when we see such a sharp plunge in perpetual futures open interest at the same time.In addition,The Unrealized Profit and Loss Ratio (NUPL) has reached tactical oversold levels, comparable to levels seen during the spring 2025 tariff crisis and the August 2024 yen collapse.We believe that having this data in hand will allow investors to adopt a more aggressive tactical bullish strategy after a month of intense sell-offs.
