jakiro
After the US non -agricultural employment data came out last night, the global financial market earthquake.Non -agricultural employment positions increased by 114,000, weaker than expected 175,000. The key is that the unemployment rate has soared to 4.3%, which greatly exceeds expectations and triggered the so -called “Sahm Rule”.The strongest signal.
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The Sam rule is an experience law: when the average value of the unemployment rate exceeded 0.5%of the previous year’s unemployment rate, the US economy will inevitably fall into a decline.How spirit is this indicator?It is almost ten inspections and ten accuracy, and never lost.The figure below shows the corresponding relationship between data (blue curve) and the US economic recession (gray vertical) since 1949.
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Judging from the response of U.S. stocks and global markets, the fear of people’s economic recession has overwhelmed the rejoicing of the Fed’s upcoming interest rate cut.On Friday, US stocks plummeted across the board, the S & P 500 fell 1.8%, the Nasdaq fell 2.4%, and Dow Jones fell nearly 610 points.
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Although Powell raised the Bai flag at the end of July at the end of July, he did not make a decision to cut interest rates immediately, but delayed the expected interest rate cut to September.
Just two days later, the wind and clouds changed.Unexpected employment data perfectly fits Powell’s “preview”.However, how the US stocks plummeted across the board, and they couldn’t go back to time with their deaths. Let Powell reopen the discussion meeting at the end of July, and announced that it would start to cut interest rates immediately in August, which was urgent.
The Sino -US financial game, which was nicknamed the “hyperglycemia high blood pressure” by netizens, and finally boiled the eagle into the collapse of the eagle. In 15 years, the cold windows were hard and lonely, and they were about to see the dawn of Liming.The offshore RMB has suddenly appreciated to the US dollar, and USD/CNH exceeds the 7.2 mark.Vaguely, the charge has sounded.Liang Liang’s node torn out the thick night.The east raised the fish belly white.
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Last year, the teaching chain wrote a trilogy in this final battle.
The first “Artificial Prosperity” pointed out that the false economy of the United States due to helicopter sprinkling money will be expelled by excess savings at the end of 2023 and early 2024.The economic recession has become a foregone conclusion.In the second part of “Beat the Mountains”, it talks about China adopting a reverse cycle adjustment that does not cooperate with the US interest rate hike, actively piercing asset bubbles, and resolutely defending the stability of exchange rates.Promote the help of the United States to collapse.The third part of “Huashan on Sword” focuses on how the US dollar rate hike cycle cooperates with US debt super issues, changing cages to change birds, diluted and harvested the wealth in the hands of the people in the world.China seize the opportunity to shrink the dollar and lend the dollar earned by the US dollar to the bond to repay the collapse. It agrees that they will use RMB to repay in the future, thereby interrupting the routine of the country’s interest rate hike cycle.The performance of the classic script was replaced by the people of the world with a smile and waiting for the new script of the US high interest.
What we want is not the really collapse of the United States, but a play that plays a collapse.As soon as the collapse drama, the US stocks were forced to die, and the US economy was going to decline. It was necessary to “hard landing” and fell into a fake bone. When the Fed was scared, he received high interest rates and quickly cut interest rates and rain.
The play is open, the scene is off, who is the guest?
See the micro -knowledge.In fact, from the past period of time, many big Vs in the Chinese community have been thinking about US stocks all day long. The comments area has been brushing the phenomenon of “Dingdin Index”, and it can be predicted that the US stocks are about to top up.After all, such a huge bubble is not enough to fill in the small leeks in the commentary area to fill the line.This is a reason for the indicators of Da A when the uncle who sells vegetables began to rush into Da A.
Remember that the mathematical principles of the receipt are that only the larger funds and players enter the market can the market continue to rise. If a market falls to small shrimp to take over the large institution, then it can only be a terrible decline.And harvest.
Why can BTC pass through the cycle?It is because the speculators will pick up the early old guns in the early days, and the enterprise will take over the speculators, and the ETF will be taken to the enterprise. There will be a sovereign state to take over the inventory …
Don’t be stupid anymore, believe that “the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, US stocks collapse”.This is purely because of fruit, upside down black and white.Obviously, the US stocks were forced to die.
The US stocks that are burning with fire and the covered Federal Reserve, just like young men and girls who are above friends and their lovers who are not full, and testify each other ashamed, no one dares to take that step.Still U.S. stocks first shot and broke the window paper.Once it breaks, the Federal Reserve does not have to hide it.The two bodies of youth and whiteness rolled together.
