Trump’s PolyMarket encryption predict market dividend geometry?

Author: daniel li

In recent years, the encrypted forecast platform, as a new force in the blockchain industry, is rapidly rising and has received widespread attention.This unique market form, through collective wisdom, allows users to buy and sell shares related to future events, thereby predicting the direction of the event.It not only provides investors with new investment channels, but also provides valuable data resources for research institutions.According to industry reports, the scale of the encryption forecasting platform is undergoing explosive growth, and it is expected that in the next few years, it will continue to maintain a high -speed growth trend.

Among the many encrypted forecasting platforms, PolyMarket stands out with its unique operating mechanism and hot event marketing that keeps close to the current political affairs, becoming a leader in this field.As a blockchain -based decentralized forecasting market platform, Polymarket allows users to bet on the future results of various themes using cryptocurrencies.It uses smart contracts to run on the Polygon blockchain, which greatly reduces transaction costs and speeds up transaction processing.Since its launch, Polymarket has attracted a large number of users and followers with its high transparency and friendly interaction experience, and has become the largest encryption forecasting platform.

This article will explore the operating mechanism and principles of PolyMarket, and at the same time analyze the new trends of the industry’s industry in the industry, aiming to provide readers with a comprehensive and in -depth encryption forecast market insight.

Polymarket: Understand the real world with betting

Polymarket, a decentralized forecasting market platform based on blockchain technology, has begun to emerge in the public view in recent years.The platform was founded by Shayne Coplan in 2020. Its birth background is closely related to the deep insight of the founder Coplan during the epidemic.Faced with a large number of uncertain views and opinions in the market, the two parties often hold their own words, and it is difficult to convince each other. In addition, the influence of the influence of error information and the influence of the pursuit of profits, people are becoming more difficult to see the truth of the matter.Therefore, COPLAN has founded Polymarket, which aims to make people more accurately understand what happens in the real world in a new way.

Polymarket’s theory is based on the famous papers of Hayek’s famous thesis, “Use of Knowledge in Society”.Hayek believes that economic incentives are the key to driving people more accurately to understand uncertainty.When economic incentives play a role, people tend to read more and better information sources, think more deeply, and try to invest their money on more likely results.Coplan puts this theory into practice. In short, it is to understand the real world through betting.

Open the Polymarket website, the homepage shows the hot news events that are concerned about global attention, such as the possibility of winning in the upcoming presidential election, whether the Musk and Zuckerberg will have conflicts, the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates this year to reduce interest rates this yearThe number of expectations, etc.Users can choose a specific market according to personal interests and buy the “results of the” results “representing the potential results of these events.The market price of these share reflects the collective perception of the event, providing users with an intuitive reference basis.Before market resolutions, users enjoy the flexibility of selling their share at any time, and in this process, they usually do not need to pay high transaction costs.Once the results of the relevant events are officially announced, the predicting accurate users have the right to redeem its share at a price of $ 1 per share, and the share of users with inaccurate users will lose its value.It is worth noting that all transactions and settlements on the PolyMarket platform are automatically executed through smart contracts, which ensures the fairness, transparency and security of transactions.

Polymarket has prompted each user to be responsible for their views by introducing a reward and punishment mechanism, so that statistical data on the platform can better reflect the truth of the market.Compared with previous platforms or social media, Polymarket’s prediction results are closer to the truth.For example, in the events of normal temperature superconductors, despite some authoritative media holding skeptics, the Internet celebrities still confirmed its implementation and even fabricated evidence.Polymarket gives more rational predictions. The proportion of authenticity is one to 19, showing the rationalization of user perspectives under the prize penalty mechanism.

At present, social media and spam are flooding, and people’s ways to understand things are often limited.These institutions may not be objective due to interests. At the same time, social platforms will also recommend information based on user interests, leading to information cocoon room effects.As a decentralized forecasting market platform, Polymarket has maintained fairness and justice based on blockchain technology, and provides opportunities for changes in public opinion.Its characteristics of the correct politics, de -emotional, and objective and true, show people’s true judgment and provide a new perspective for understanding the real world.As the founder Coplan said, Polymarket is a platform that uses the market to draw the wisdom of the masses.

Can polymarket fire hold?Continue?

The encryption forecast platform is not an emerging industry. In fact, as early as 2018, Augur established a first encryption forecasting platform based on blockchain technology.The steps and unfriendly interactive interfaces make it not really enter the public’s field of vision. Until the appearance of Polymarket, the encrypted forecast platform can truly popularize and become a mature application in the blockchain industry.

According to data, Polymarket has attracted widespread attention and participation worldwide at an unprecedented speed with its unique betting prediction model.Especially during the current US election, Polymarket not only became a popular platform for ordinary people to bet on their voting intentions, but also attracted a large number of investors to make profits through accurate prediction candidates to win.In the past few months, these active participants have invested hundreds of millions of dollars on Polymarket, which directly promoted the platform’s business scale and popularity to a new height.

Dune’s latest data confirms the popularity of Polymarket.Since April this year, Polymarket’s transaction volume and number of users have shown a well -spraying growth. Especially under the global attention caused by Trump’s assassination in July, Polymarket as a representative of the forecast market has been widely reported by the global media to further increaseIts popularity and influence.Affected by the incident, Polymarket’s monthly trading volume in July doubled from June, breaking through the 200 million US dollars, and the daily transaction volume was stable at more than 20 million US dollars. The number of daily active traders exceeded 6,000Essence

The popularity of Polymarket not only attracted the enthusiastic participation of the majority of users, but also allowed the idealists in some encrypted fields to regard it as an arbitrator who revealed the truth.They believe that Polymarket is expected to become one of the main sources of justice with its decentralization and transparency characteristics.However, behind the current popularity, we have to face up many challenges and potential risks faced by Polymarket.

First of all, the lack of continuous capital inflow is one of the key issues that Polymarket can continue to develop in the future.The predicted market, as a zero -sum game, its essence determines that it cannot attract continuous passive capital inflows like stocks, bonds or cryptocurrencies in the traditional financial market.This characteristic makes Polymarket facing the challenge of how to maintain capital liquidity in long -term operation, which affects its ability to continue profit and development.

Secondly, market liquidity limit is also an important issue that PolyMarket needs to solve.At present, Polymarket’s top topics are almost related to the US elections. These topics have attracted the attention of most users. HoweverLack of sufficient appeal.This has caused the liquidity of these markets to be relatively insufficient, and it is difficult to form an effective market price discovery mechanism, which affects the accuracy and credibility of the predicted results.

In addition, the influence of market participants is also a aspect of PolyMarket that needs to pay attention to.In the forecast of the market, lack of sufficient number of professional market business participants may cause market prices to be controlled or influenced by a few participants with advantages.This not only weakens the ability to provide accurate insight into the forecast market, but also trigger market injustice and crisis in trust.For example, some insiders in the industry can often know some inside information in advance. They can lay up a large number of bets in advance to harvest ordinary users. Therefore, how to establish a more fair and fair supervision and review mechanism is also very important for the future development of Polymarket.

Finally, PolyMarket relies on hot news to create topics for people to bet on the predictive direction, so often touch some social sensitive events, such as some time ago, Polymarket once released several tweets containing improper language (especially in the official X account (especiallyIt is a marketing that uses the offending vocabulary “Retardio” (meaning “sluggish”) for marketing.Afterwards, Polymarket issued an apology letter on the incident of improper use of tweets, fired relevant personnel and launched internal censorship.But it still caused public doubts, and some media believed that Polymarket was using some bad events to make money.

Look at the future development of the encryption forecast market from PolyMarket

Polymarket’s popularity undoubtedly reveals the unlimited potential of the encryption forecast market.Back to the past, the prediction market is mostly in the theoretical stage. Even if there are practical attempts, it is often closely linked to gaming, and even uses criminals as money laundering tools.However, the introduction of blockchain technology has brought profound changes to the prediction market, and its open and transparent characteristics make the crypto market on the chain more easily accepted and trusted by ordinary users.

Although Polymarket is not the pioneer of the encryption forecasting platform, it is undoubtedly the most mature and influential platform.Its success is not only reflected in the rapid growth of the number of users and the continuous rise in transaction volume, but also that it has successfully pushed the encrypted forecast market to the general public, injecting new vitality into this field.The rise of PolyMarket lets us see the new application cases of the blockchain industry, as well as the unique charm and broad prospects of the encrypted forecasting platform.

It has long been predicted that the market has been regarded as a holy grail in the field of cognitive technology.As early as 2014, Vitalik, the founder of Ethereum, expressed a strong interest in the prediction market as a governance mechanism.However, for a long time, predicting the market has faced many challenges in practical applications, such as participants’ irrationality, insufficient market liquidity, and “correct knowledge” holders lack the motivation to bet.These issues have always restricted the development of the forecast market.

The appearance of Polymarket broke this deadlock.It not only attracted the attention of a large number of people in the industry, but also showed strong vitality and broad prospects in practical applications.Vitalik himself has used PolyMarket to track Sam Altman’s board of directors. This behavior undoubtedly adds more authority and influence to Polymarket.At the same time, Packy McCormick, a consultant of A16z Crypto, also highly evaluated Polymarket, thinking that its page may be the best place to start the day on the Internet.This evaluation not only reflects Polymarket’s outstanding performance in user experience, but also shows its unique value in information acquisition and decision -making support.

Richard’s view provides us with another perspective.He believes that the encryption industry should reduce zero -sum game and turn to provide positive experience.The predicted market is one of the best choices to complete this mission.It can be used as a betting platform to provide users with the possibility of entertainment and benefits; it can also become the source of information to help users make more wise decisions.This dual characteristic makes the predictive market has a unique status and value in the encryption industry.

However, we must also soberly recognize the challenges of the encryption forecast market in the future development.The uncertainty of regulatory policies, the prevention of compliance risks, and the construction of market ethics are all issues that we need to focus on.Only under the premise of ensuring compliance, fairness, and transparency, encrypted forecasting markets can achieve healthy, stable and sustainable development.This requires common efforts and continuous exploration in the industry.

Inventory of the current encryption forecast market platform worthy of attention

In the encrypted forecast market track, in addition to Polymarket, there are many platforms standing out with their unique operating mechanisms and their respective advantages, which has become the focus of market attention.These platforms not only provide innovative prediction market models, but also achieve the improvement of transparency and credibility through blockchain technology, attracting more and more encrypted enthusiasts and investors’ attention.The following are several encryption forecast marketing platforms that are currently worthy of special attention:

Augur

Augur, as the pioneer of the blockchain prediction market, has been committed to promoting the development of the field since 2014.The operating mechanism is based on community -driven, which not only allows users to participate in betting, but also support users to create their own market, which significantly improves the market participation and customization of the market.Augur uses native currency REP for operation. The token played a key role in reward distribution, market creation, and results dispute resolution, which further enhanced the transparency and credibility of the market.In order to cope with the scalability challenges of Ethereum, Augur launched the Turbo version, using the Polygon network to improve transaction efficiency and scalability, thereby significantly improved the user experience.

In recent years, the Augur platform function has continued to improve, and the size of the community has continued to expand, which has attracted more and more encrypted enthusiasts and investors.However, its community -driven model may also cause market results to be affected by a certain degree, which is the risk that investors need to pay attention to when participating.

Gnosis

GNOSIS is a comprehensive blockchain ecosystem that covers a series of infrastructure tools such as forecasting markets, decentralized transactions, and wallet services.Its operating mechanism is centered on the GNO tokens and closely linked users to the platform through governance and pledge mechanism.In order to solve the scalability challenge of Ethereum, GNOSIS has developed its own second -level solution -the GNOSIS chain, providing strong support for the predictive market such as Ethereum -based applications.

The development model of GNOSIS focuses on the comprehensiveness and versatility of the ecosystem, and aims to provide users with an integrated and convenient blockchain environment.At present, GNOSIS is gradually expanding the scope of its ecosystem application to meet the needs of more users.However, because its ecosystem is more complicated, novice users may need to be familiar with and master their various functions and services for a certain time.

Xraders

XRADERS is a decentralized market forecast and expert opinion sharing platform, using blockchain technology to make transparent data records and trust establishment.Its operating mechanism combines social price forecasting, gaming elements and community -driven cycles, providing a safe and reliable environment for user interaction.XRADERS provides careful planning expert insights, providing investors with operability information, and through the decentralized voting system to ensure transparency and integrity.

In recent years, XRADERS has reached a cooperative relationship with multiple well -known projects, such as UXLINK, Secondlive, DIN, etc., its core gameplay GuesS2EARN (guessing model) and decentralized voting system have also attracted a large number of users.In addition, XRADERS has successfully completed the seed wheel financing, attracting the participation of multiple head encryption investors and institutions.However, due to the characteristics of its decentralization, the information on the platform may have certain subjectivity and uncertainty, and investors need to be carefully evaluated when making decisions.

Predictit

Predictit is a non -profit research project that is operated by the University of Victoria Victoria, New Zealand.It has obtained a special exemption from CFTC at the US Federal level, allowing it to operate legally in some US states.Predictit’s operating mechanism is relatively simple and clear, mainly depending on users’ predictions and betting on market events.In order to comply with relevant regulations, Predictit has limited the amount of investment in users.At present, the event market on Predictit covers various fields such as politics, economy, and sports, which has attracted a large number of users to participate.However, due to its non -profit and regulations, Predictit may face certain challenges in terms of marketing and commercialization.At the same time, investors also need to pay attention to compliance and investment risks when participating to ensure that their rights and interests are not damaged.