jakiro
Author: Cora Xu, Source: Silicon Rabbit
Few people in Silicon Valley dare to bet on their reputation and resources like Elon Musk, and support a presidential candidate so much.
Fortunately, in the 47th presidential election of the United States, the escort secretary successfully sent Donald Trump to the president’s “throne”.On election night, Trump also praised and thanked Musk without any concealment, and left five minutes of “exclusive advertising space” for SpaceX.
Now, the overall situation of the US election has been decided, but as the number one hero, Musk, is so anxious to push Trump to power?What benefits will he get from this election battle?Will Trump really give Musk a “gold medal” to avoid death when he takes office?
After the hustle and bustle, we may be able to look more calmly at how this Silicon Valley superstar made careful arrangements, devoted himself and cautiously concluded in the craziest election investment.This election also allows us to see once again that Musk has a sensitive sense of investment and accurate judgment in many fields such as politics, economy, and society.
Musk stands for Trump in Pennsylvania.(Photo source: Associated Press)
01.Musk is in a dilemma and needs a new president
In the latest release of Forbes Global Billionaire List 2024, Musk ranked second in the world and the number one in the United States with US$195 billion.
The wealth of the United States’ richest man mainly consists of two major parts: company shares + cash and other assets.Among them, the valuation of the company’s shares is the most important part of Musk’s wealth, currently including autonomous driving company Tesla, commercial space company SpaceX, social media X, brain-computer interface company Neuralink, tunnel company The Boring Company, etc.
It seems that Musk should rest assured that he has the leading companies with many tracks.But in fact, if you carefully sort out the latest situations of major companies in the past year, it is not difficult to find that many of Musk’s companies have successively fallen into development bottlenecks, with slow growth in core businesses and innovative businesses suspended or delayed.Some of the keys to solving corporate problems cannot be avoided by the US government in a roundabout way.
1. Tesla: Safety supervision may be relaxed, and Robotaxi commercialization process will accelerate
First of all, the most critical Tesla.As a former big brother of autonomous driving, Tesla was investigated by the U.S. Department of Justice and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for its autonomous driving and fully autonomous driving functions, involving 11 accidents and 765,000 vehicles.
At the same time, Tesla is also involved in disputes such as the union struggle initiated by the National Labor Relations Commission and racial discrimination initiated by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission.It can be seen that Tesla has always received high attention from the US government and has regulated its development in many aspects.
In addition, Tesla rarely gave support during the Biden administration. Tesla is neither on the list of difficult support for new energy subsidies in the United States nor was it invited by the US Electric Vehicle Summit held by the White House.It can be seen that the relationship between Musk and the US government is different.
On the other hand, whether it is Tesla’s autonomous driving business or its just-released Robotaxi, further expansion is inseparable from the support of the US government.
2. Commercial airline SpaceX: Trump helps Mars immigration plan, Starlink business expansion accelerates
Commercial airline SpaceX also encountered the problem of strict government regulation.The U.S. Department of Justice is suing SpaceX for discrimination against refugees during the recruitment process; a regional office of the National Labor Relations Commission complains that it illegally fired eight employees; the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration is sacking SpaceX a civil fine of $633,009; The Federal Communications Commission voted against the inclusion of SpaceX’s Starlink in the rural broadband program and provided financial support…
“They took away all possible contracts.” Musk once mentioned in the interview angrily.
It can be seen that SpaceX’s current business growth is inseparable from the US government’s relaxation of supervision, especially Starlink’s multi-state pilot program to expand its service scope.
In exploring space, Musk has always had a “Martian Dream”, which requires more cooperation with the US government.He once said in an interview that his dream of immigration to Mars can only be realized under Trump’s rule.Trump also responded positively: “I hope he can send the Rockets to Mars, and he promised to land on Mars before the end of my term.”
3. Social Media X: Transfer of content regulation rights to enterprises, reaffirming the importance of freedom of speech
During the Biden period, the main controversy between the US government and Musk’s social media X was related to the rights to freedom of speech and how the government regulates platform content, as well as its influence on decision-making. Biden also hopes to promote the reform of the US Article 230 to curb illegal speech..
But obviously Trump advocates freedom of speech more than that. Whether he founded the social media platform Truth, or his speech during the election period and policy publicity, it can be seen that he is more willing to transfer the platform’s content supervision rights to enterprises.It is not the content of the government regulatory platform.
4. Neuralink, Brain-computer interface: FDA approval is accelerated, new products are launched
As an innovative invasive brain-computer interface project, the U.S. government has always held a comprehensive and strict scrutiny towards Neuralink.
The USDA investigates Neuralink’s animal trials to determine whether the relevant behavior meets the minimum standards set by the Animal Welfare Act; the USDA also launched an investigation into Neuralink at the request of the Animal Welfare Initiative for the companyThe transportation of test materials has “sloppy and unsafe operations” that may involve the risk of dangerous pathogen transmission; the US animal protection organization PCRM filed a lawsuit against Neuralink, accusing it of “abuse” monkeys…
In addition, Neuralink also sought permission from the FDA for human trials in early 2022, but was rejected for a time and did not pass it until more than a year later.Neuralink has also finally launched its first product, Telepathy, and completed its first human brain device implantation surgery in January 2024.
5. The Boring Company, the tunnel company: The construction of the “super high-speed rail” will be restarted to create an underground highway transportation system
You may be hard to imagine that, as one of Musk’s “one of the most boring companies”, The Boring Company has been in operation for seven years and has operated only 2.4 miles of tunnels.All this is far from what Musk originally envisioned to build a massive multi-site underground road transportation system that allows driverless cars to take people to their destinations at 150 miles per hour.It can be said that The Boring Company is complementary to Musk’s Robotaxi plan and prepares for it.
Therefore, compared with other Musk companies, The Boring Company’s business progress depends more on the support of the US government.
According to a survey by foreign media NBC, Musk and his huge business empire have been involved in at least 19 regulatory or legal disputes with the Biden administration in recent years, 10 of which are still ongoing.Since 2022, many projects have made even slower progress under the strict supervision of the Biden administration.
Tesla executives once called on X to return to work in the company, implying that Musk was less energetic to the company’s operations.Now that I think about it, perhaps Musk has sorted out all the problems of his company and chose to start solving them from their biggest common problem – the US government.
02.ALL in election
It is hard to say when Musk started to invest in this election, but the first thing that showed signs was Musk’s acquisition of Twitter for US$44 billion.
After all, the first thing Boss Ma did after taking office was to unblock Trump’s account.Many netizens analyzed that from here on, Musk laid the first step in the election investment.
It has to be said that in today’s American society, the social platform X (former Twitter) is still the main battlefield for the election. Musk invited Trump to broadcast live on the X platform, which is quite polite.
But it should be said that Musk really stood at the center of the election and decided to invest in Saha in July 2024. After the Trump shooting case, Musk publicly expressed his support for Trump as the next president.
If we only achieve this level, we cannot see Musk’s determination.After all, there are not a few Silicon Valley people who publicly support a certain presidential candidate.Musk’s biggest step was to take to Trump’s rally podium.
After walking here, Musk has firmly grasped his destiny.Trump was tied together.Even he laughed and said, “If Harris comes on stage, then I will be done. Do you think I can still see my children?”
In fact, in addition to being openly on the outside, Musk stood up for Trump, under the undercurrent, Musk also brought his personal resources to the extreme and started this craziest investment.
First of all, spend money to build momentum for the “King of Understanding”.Musk not only set up the Political Action Committee America PAC specifically to support Trump, but also donated at least $132 million to the Trump campaign.Among them, Musk even provided $56 million to Trump and other Republicans.
Not to mention, Musk invested $15 million to “spread money” to voters in swing states.As long as you invest in Trump, you will get a bonus, and you will be given $1 million a day, which lasts for half a month.Although the 15 million may not be much for Musk and not too much for election investment, almost everyone in the United States knows about Musk’s strong support for Trump with his magical operation.
The second is resource recommendation.For example, Musk, together with his close friend and senior investor Nelson Peltz, expressed his “loyalty” to Trump. They will gather influential business leaders across the United States with political allies to try to convince them not to support incumbent President Biden.The effect is indeed significant. PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel and venture capitalist David Sacks are both friends of Musk and they both publicly expressed their support for Trump during the campaign.Biden eventually withdrew from the presidential election and pushed Harris to run for the election.
While seizing support from the key swing state of Pennsylvania, Musk held frequent town hall meetings locally, personally promoted his key role in the election, and updated early voting data on social media platform X, publishing and election posts.
He also dispatched his own think tank to help Trump’s campaign in Pennsylvania, trying to use his rhetoric to encourage voters to support Trump.This also won the most critical 19 electoral votes for Trump to win the presidential election.
If we regard this election as Musk’s investment project in Trump, then Musk may become a more ideal investor in many people’s minds: supply large amounts of funds, support resources, and use his own influence to build momentum.It also provides think tanks to solve key problems, while also not interfering in Republican policy proposals.
Looking closely at Musk, he was trapped in many corporate problems, bravely betting on all his wealth, and chose to advance and retreat with Trump.
In addition, it is worth noting that Musk seems to be All in this investment, but it is not really a way out for himself.
His biggest retreat is Harris.It can be seen that Harris has always adopted a more inclusive listening attitude towards innovative technologies and innovative enterprises. In most cases, Harris is willing to balance supervision and innovative supervision, so even if Harris comes to power, Musk should be regulated by the government.It won’t be stricter than in Biden’s time.
Entering the market with a high profile, accurately grasping the social and political trends, weighing people’s hearts, and pursuing success, Musk personally demonstrated how to win in Silicon Valley’s craziest investments.
03Musk won the bet for the next 12 years
Silicon Valley giants, like startups, are waiting for their boots to land.
The return from this election investment may be higher than Musk’s estimate.
First of all, Trump won Harris in a crushing manner, with obvious advantages in both electoral and general votes, and finally won 277:226.
Secondly, the Republicans won most seats in the Senate and House of Representatives, which means that Trump also has a great influence in legislation and achieves the unity of executive and legislative.
Finally, the current Supreme Court justices adopt a lifetime system, and most of them are still promoting conservative candidates during Trump’s term of office, which is almost the same as his own.
therefore,Trump’s second term as president can be said to have three powers in his control, with great influence and decision-making power.
Many people optimistically expect that as long as Trump moves forward steadily, is re-elected for two terms, and then supports the next generation of Republican candidates to take office, the Republican Party will have considerable power in the next 12 years.
And all of this,Falling on Musk may leave a 12-year golden period of development for his business empire.As major innovative technologies are booming, the trend is improving.
The more you earn, the more careful you act, which is particularly obvious in Musk after Trump announced his competence.As of press time, Musk only briefly congratulated Trump on his own platform for not having any more speeches after he was competent.Compared to his generous praise between elections, Musk has now hidden his merits and fame and retreated.
But is Musk really not in conflict with Trump’s new policy?Obviously not.
First of all, the first problem is supervision.If, as Trump promised, Boss Ma became the first secretary of the U.S. National Efficiency Commission and reduced spending on other companies, how will Musk supervise himself and other industries?This is obviously not a good question.Musk did not even shy away from potential conflicts of interest, but instead publicly expressed his hope that Trump would directly help his business by cutting regulation.
On the other hand, Musk’s overseas business investment and Trump’s tariff policies have conflicts of interest, which is also one of the hidden dangers of his corporate development.
Trump obviously will not allow Musk to act recklessly, and even spoke out long before the election. Musk will become his “cost reduction minister” but “will not enter the cabinet.”Musk had long anticipated this in the interview, and he mentioned: “The White House will adopt different policies based on different people.”
Now, the political struggle between Harris and Trump has ended, but the game between Musk and Trump has just begun.
