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Source: Bloomberg; BBC; Decrypt, compiled and compiled: Tao Zhu, Bitchain Vision
Donald Trump was found guilty of 34 felony counts of forging business records in Manhattan’s criminal trial, becoming the first former president in U.S. history to be convicted.This injects an explosive and unpredictable new variable into the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Trump has experienced two impeachments and numerous other scandals, but remains ahead of Biden in most polls.
1. Is Trump’s verdict Biden’s chance?
The two parties’ presidential campaign strategists agreed thatThe guilty verdict provides new opportunities for Biden, whose dull performance and downturned poll data have raised concerns among many Democratic lawmakers and party officials.
Biden’s campaign communications director Michael Taylor said in a statement Thursday that the result shows that “no one can overtake the law” and that Trump “has always mistakenly believed that he would never be for personal gain.Illegal and punished”.But Biden also admitted that the legal system alone cannot prevent Trump from retaking the White House in November.
“There is only one way to stop Donald Trump from entering the White House: passing the ballot box,” Biden said in his fundraising campaign.
Trump was convicted of felonyThis provides Biden with an opportunity to refocus voters on Trump’s actions, thus shaking the campaign.
“If you don’t rely entirely on the judgment, it’s a dereliction of duty,” said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist and a veteran of Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign.”I hope President Biden will make an important speech to have Democratic officials incite the country and do whatever possible to make the campaign a referendum against Trump.”
2. The story of Trump and adult actresses
American adult film actress Stormy Daniels said she and Trump had an affair since 2006 and he has tried to keep the matter low-key since then.
Daniels is her stage name, Stephanie Clifford, and was born in Louisiana in 1979.Before she started directing and writing in 2004, she was an adult film actor.Daniels said he had a one-time relationship with Trump at a hotel during a celebrity golf tournament in Lake Tahoe, California in July 2006.Trump married Melania Trump in 2005.
Trump strongly denied having an extramarital affair with Daniels.
Because he was worried about his family’s safety, Daniels accepted the “humiliation fee” from Trump’s personal lawyer.
Trump’s personal attorney Michael Cohen also confirmed that he had paid Daniels $130,000 in private.
Daniels pointed out that she signed the so-called “humiliation fee” document with Trump’s lawyer Cohen shortly before the election, but Trump did not sign it, so it is legally invalid.
3. Will voters’ attitudes change?
Trump tried to use the verdict to inspire hardcore supporters, mostly believing in his statement, i.e.The prosecution was politically motivated to prevent him from taking power.
“The real verdict will be made by the people on November 5, and they know what is going on here,” Trump said in a brief comment to reporters outside the court.
Trump used a similar strategy last year, exploiting Republican outrage over his indictment, forcing his primary opponent to quit the campaign.However, it is not clear whether this will work in the general election.
Bill Clinton, senior strategist for the 1992 presidential campaign, saidThe most important factor in the guilty verdict is that it is made by a fair jury—and thus can resonate with marginal and indecisive voters who often ignore partisan messengers.
“Trump can’t win by his people alone,” Cavill said.”And it will certainly have a hindrance to everyone else.”
The investigation conducted before the verdict shows that Trump will indeed pay the price for the jury’s conclusions.The jury believes Trump deliberately forged business records during the 2016 presidential campaign to conceal his extramarital affair with adult film actress Stormy Daniels from voters.
A Marquette Law School poll of registered voters on May 23 found thatIf the sentence is “incriminated,” Biden will lead by 4 percentage points in a national head-on battle with Trump, and if the sentence is “incriminated”, Trump will lead by 6 percentage points.
Whether the campaign will change may depend more on Biden than Trump.At least some strategists in both parties expect Trump’s newly acquired felon status to have a lasting impact — provided that Biden and his campaign can emphasize the guilt to those who mostly don’t care about state affairs.
Trump’s campaign also faces some practical problems, and they have been hoping to increase travel to battlefield states without being restricted by court schedules.His verdict was scheduled for July 11, four days before the Republican National Convention opened in Milwaukee.
After the verdict was released, evidence of internal disputes had surfaced, with Trump’s agent clashing on social media with former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, now a Republican candidate in the state’s U.S. Senate campaign, afterHogan urged Americans to “respect the judgment and legal process.”
The title of “Feined Criminal” will upset voters with low tendencies and low information, and they are why Trump is currently leading.
Although the Trump campaign publicly claims that it is not concerned about the trial,Trump has told allies and advisers privately that he does not want to be a felon.
4. Trump’s response
Prosecutors said Trump instructed Cohen to pay $130,000 to adult movie star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election to prevent her from making public what she said was sexual contact between them.Prosecutors argued that Trump repaid the hush money to Cohen and several “legal services” payments were recorded in the company’s books.Trump’s team claims that the money is actually used for legal work.
Trump denied all charges, saying the trial was “manipulated.”
Trump also called on donors to donate to his troubled presidential campaign.
“They searched my home, arrested me, took pictures of me, and now they just found me guilty!” a fundraising appeal read.“Before today, I call on ten million patriots who support Trump to donate.”
Trump’s fundraising campaign has achieved several victories in recent weeks, including $76 million raised in April, which is $25 million more than Biden raised that month.He also received support from billionaire Miriam Adelson and Blackstone CEO Steve Schwartzman, the two largest Republican donors.Trump also raised $40 million in the Texas campaign, mostly from executives in the oil and gas industry, including Harold Hamm, chairman of Continental Resources.
5. Reactions of traditional finance and cryptocurrency markets
Trump’s verdict has not yet had an impact on Wall Street.
From all-weather currency trading to after-hour stock trading, most financial assets (except for Trump Media Technology Group stocks) remained basically stable after a New York jury found Trump’s 34 felony crimes established.
But for traders, the problem now is,How this decision will affect markets that have begun preparing for the 2024 U.S. election — in which Trump will almost certainly face off against President Joe Biden.
Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, said:“The stock market has historically been unaffected by domestic political turmoil. However, after the Trump verdict, the political atmosphere will obviously be more turbulent, which may exacerbate stock market volatility.”
Compared with the stable performance of traditional financial assets,Crypto assets obviously responded more violently.
TRUMPThe price plummeted from about $15 before the readout to $11.27 shortly after the judgment, down nearly 25% in just over an hour.
The Trump concept coin with a smaller market value is also falling sharply.MAGA Hat (MAGA)It fell 16% in one hour.Super Trump (STRUMP)It fell 16% in one hour.MAGA VP (MVP)It fell 22% in one hour.
The meme coin inspired by Trump’s main rival, current U.S. President Joe Biden, rose after the verdict.The largest meme coinJeo Boden (BODEN)It rose 12% in one hour.
6. Other issues worth paying attention to
1. What happens after Trump is convicted?
The next step will be to judge Juan Merchant’s sentence, which will be scheduled for July 11.This is only a few days away from the Republican National Convention on July 15, where the Republican Party will formally elect Trump as presidential candidate for the November 5 election.Merchamp said Trump could stay away from justice before the sentencing was announced.
Defendants convicted of felony are usually sentenced to imprisonment, but the law does not require the sentence to be served.Especially since the former president is 77 years old and is a first-time offender with no criminal record, it is necessary to give him a lighter treatment.Trump may also be asked to pay some form of financial penalties.
2. How long will Trump be in jail?
每项罪名都是 E 级重罪，刑期为 1 年半至 4 年。由于特朗普被判犯有多项罪名，因此特朗普可以被判处多项罪名同时服刑，这意味着这位前总统将同时服满所有刑期。
3. Can Trump appeal?
是的，他立即对判决提出异议，称这场斗争“还远未结束”。But he could only appeal to New York State after the sentencing was announced.
特朗普最终可能会要求美国最高法院介入。
4. Where may Trump serve his sentence?
目前还不清楚特朗普将在何处服刑，但负责保护现任或前任总统的美国特勤局已经与联邦、州和市官员会面，讨论特朗普入狱的可能性。
If Trump is sentenced to one year or less, he may serve his sentence at New York’s Ricks Island Prison, which has seven prisons.Alan Weselberg, 76, recently pleaded guilty to perjury and is currently serving five months in the prison’s medical department.
5.特朗普被定罪是否意味着他不能竞选连任？
Trump can still run for office.The U.S. Constitution has few requirements for running for office, including no limit on character or criminal record.
6. How will the verdict affect the 2024 election?
It is unclear how his conviction will affect the election outcome.But if Trump wins, the U.S. will be head of state with a convicted felon for the first time—a fact that it is not uncommon elsewhere in the world.Trump likens himself to the late South African leader Nelson Mandela, who was imprisoned for 27 years for opposing the apartheid regime.
7. If Trump is re-elected, can he pardon himself?
If Trump is re-elected, it could theoretically be directed to withdraw these cases.
Blockchain forecast market Polymarket data shows that traders still expect Trump to beat Biden in the November election.Even after the verdict, Trump is still far ahead – the odds of winning are 56%, while Biden has 38%.
