jakiro
Source: Zuo Ye Waibo Mountain
The old man turned into a little girl. The awakened Musk angrily turned to the Republican Party. Today, I realized that I was me. After playing Elden’s Fargo, on October 28, 2022, Musk bought Twitter for $44 billion.
People are not sure about Musk’s true feelings at that time. The entire Silicon Valley and the Democratic Party have been bound for more than 30 years. Even if someone is dissatisfied with the Democratic Party, they will at most develop a balance policy and donate to both parties. All in Trump like MuskBusinessmen are really too alternative.
But at least, his long-time friend Peter Till can understand all this. Peter Till is Vance’s sponsor, and Musk’s stud is Trump, one light and one dark, one right and one right, not to mentionThis election is a victory of Trumpism, but it is better to say that it is Musk Peter Thiel’s turnaround.
After all, Musk is a businessman, and the cost he pays ultimately hopes to create more profits, especially the direct consequence of gambling politics is that it will be liquidated in a band-like manner. If this election is won, what will happen four years later and eight years later.Only by becoming a true controller can you be invincible. Musk’s idea is also extremely simple. He became the spokesperson of the entire American high-tech industry and became the new parents of millions of canal workers, so he could naturally survive political fluctuations..
This article will roughly estimate how much cost Musk invested in this election, as well as how much direct and expected returns can be achieved.
“How many times the profit of farming?” said, “Ten times.” “How many times the profit of pearls and jade?” said, “Hundred times.” “How many times the master of establishing a country wins?” said, “Countless.
Twitter is $44 billion, but it is not buying it with cash, but borrowing it with Tesla stock as collateral. For example, Sequoia provides $800 million.
America PAC, the PAC is the Political Action Committee, which allows Musk to exceed the limit on individual small donations, as well as some other donations, which range from 110 million to 177 million.
The above are the two largest spendings, of which the direct donation is about $100 million, but the purchase of Twitter is obviously to help Trump’s political campaign, and it is also counted.
Next is Musk’s profit possibility. First, everyone is excited about Tesla’s stock price. His personal value soared by 10% in a single day. Musk personally holds 20.5% of Tesla’s shares, and before he acquired Twitter, he probably holds Tesla.22% shares, he had a sell-off period after acquiring Twitter, and the market generally believes that this part of the debt belongs to Musk personally.
Let’s do it again. Of the $44 billion acquired by Twitter, there were $13 billion in debt attributable to Twitter. Musk sold about $23.08 billion in stocks before and after the acquisition, considering that Musk acquired TwitterIt is very pure political speculation.Therefore, 230.8+1.77 = 23.257 billion US dollars is his real investment cost for this election.Because Twitter has significantly low commercial value compared to social products such as Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.
At a cost price of US$23.257 billion, it is obvious that Musk’s return rate cannot be calculated based on the increase in 5 days (2900-2620)/1.77=158 times. If there is such a good business, then it is obvious that speculators in the entire financial market will be crazy.Participate, Musk’s real profit should be (2900-2620)- 232.57=$4.743 billionIt is more reasonable.
Of course, no matter how you calculate, you will enjoy it, so don’t worry too much. But what’s interesting is that Musk’s additional profits are mainly Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and future expected government contracts, and short-term investment returns.These may be the big ones.
Human wisdom is contained in two words, hope and waiting.
Musk has been preparing for Republican-Trump victory for two years, but it has been more than 10 years to pull orders for SpaceX, mainly government orders. It is the same as Tesla’s early days when it mainly relies on selling carbon points to survive. The business is so big that it is certain.To the extent, it is impossible to have relationships with the government and enterprises. Let’s take these factors into consideration and see how much money Musk can make after this election in theory.
Image description: Elon Musk Personal timeline
First of all, Musk holds Bitcoin through Tesla. There are still 11,509 Bitcoins, which is the remaining part of 43,200 Bitcoins purchased for 1.5 billion in 2021. The average purchase price is around US$35,000, although Tesla has also sold it.After some of this, there are losses and benefits, but now this part of Bitcoin is worth US$860 million. Due to frequent price fluctuations and is nothing to Musk, who is worth hundreds of billions of dollars, we will count it as an expected return of US$1 billion.
The second is the income of Dogecoin. This part cannot be calculated. Although Musk himself is very likely to hold Dogecoin, he cannot be sure or confirmed. He can only be considered a part of Musk’s concept stock/coin. Is this really consideredcome out.
Finally, there are government orders. Unlike what you imagine, the proportion of fiscal expenditure of the US government in GDP has remained stable at around 40-50% year-on-year. Government orders are crucial for all kinds of large companies, especially high-tech enterprises. For example,Bezos, the Amazon boss who announced that he was neutral, was because he offended Trump, and then Microsoft Cloud received a government cloud service order of 10 billion US dollars lost by AWS. To be more, although Gates donated $75 million to Harris,However, Microsoft has also donated a lot to the Republican Party and laid off its own DEI department (Diversity, equity, and inclusion), demonstrating a flexible political positioning.
Currently, Musk’s companies include SpaceX, Twitter (X), Tesla, The Boring Company, Neuralink and xAI. Among them, the main products that can obtain government contracts are communication services such as Rocket Launch and Starlink, such as Trump as of 2020During Pu’s first term, Musk received about $8 billion in government rocket launch contracts, mainly from NASA and the Air Force.
At present, with Boeing’s weakness (the two astronauts are still in the sky now), and Bezos’ blue origin progress is too slow, the rocket launch contract will also increase significantly in Trump’s second term, this yearIn June, NASA gave SpaceX a $843 million contract.
In addition, the U.S. government will also strengthen support for the next-generation communication network, and Starlink has received a $70 million contract from the U.S. Space Force, and these services will also increase further as Trump takes office.
Conclusion
If Zhang Juzheng is a model of being good at planning the country and being poor at planning for one’s own business, then Musk is the embodiment of Lu Buwei. It is better to engage in political venture capital than doing business. It has a layout of US$23 billion and lasted for 2 years. Tesla’s stock price alone will be within 5 days.Earn back costs and make nearly $5 billion.
In the long run, government contracts and subsidies over the four-year period will become more real as D.O.G.E becomes more true. Although the top brother claims to cut $2 trillion in government spending, it certainly does not includeHis own government contract.
