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1. MicroStrategy’s $6.6 billion discount: Bitcoin’s perpetual motion machine stalled for the first time
MSTR currently holds 650,000 Bitcoins, with a fair value of US$55.6 billion, but the total market value is only US$49 billion, a discount of US$6.6 billion (11.9%), far exceeding the so-called “US$1 billion”.This is the first time since Thaler launched the Bitcoin treasury strategy in 2020 that there has been a sustained and substantial NAV discount.The mNAV ratio fell to 0.88, just one step away from the MSCI index’s red line.Once eliminated, passive funds will sell approximately US$2.8 billion in stocks, and the death spiral has officially begun.In November, US$1.44 billion of preferred shares were issued to fill the interest gap, further diluting equity.The bitter pill of high beta was finally felt when Bitcoin fell from $108,000 to $85,500.Some people are still stubborn: “Don’t sell Bitcoin if it drops to $1.” But the market voted with its feet: the stock price fell 41% during the year, and Bitcoin only fell 7.2%.The short-term support is US$140 and the resistance is US$180; in the long-term, only when Bitcoin returns to above US$100,000 can the premium myth be restarted.
2. The 30-year ending of Japan’s national debt: either a currency crisis or a debt crisis
The 10-year JGB yield is 1.88% and the 30-year JGB yield is 3.20%, both recording the fastest monthly gains since 2008.The central bank governor’s speech on December 1 was interpreted as “a December interest rate hike is a foregone conclusion,” and the market priced the probability of an interest rate hike at 82%.The yen surged, and USD/JPY once fell below 145.This is the combined result of a 260% debt/GDP ratio + electoral fiscal expansion + Trump’s tariff threats.In the past week, there was a rare positive correlation between the yen and Bitcoin (correlation coefficient 0.85). The essence was that the world’s largest carry trade currency appreciated, arbitrage orders were forced to close positions, and liquidity was “stolen.”Whenever a similar scenario occurs, Bitcoin falls almost simultaneously by 1.2%.
3. The Federal Reserve’s $29.4 billion overnight repurchase: undercurrents in the system are already surging
On November 30, US$29.4 billion was injected in a single day, the second largest single-day scale since 2020.SOFR jumped to 5.38%, and the reserve ratio is close to the 8.7% red line during the repo crisis in September 2019.Although QT officially ended on December 1, the bank’s initiative to borrow money shows that there are cracks in the funding situation.On the surface, “everything is fine,” but underneath, holes have begun to be repaired.
4. Global bond allocation returns to 1999 and 2007 levels: the real calm before the storm
The proportion of agency bond holdings fell to 15%, completely coinciding with the eve of the Internet bubble and subprime mortgage crisis.The bid multiple for the November auction of 20-year and 30-year U.S. bonds fell below 2.3 times, and tail risks continued to amplify.No one is buying bonds, which means that the next time risk aversion reverses, yields will jump sharply, which is the starting point of a systemic event.
5. Asset rotation and key technology positions
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After excluding the “Big Seven”, the S&P 500 hit a record high, and breadth is actually improving.
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Nasdaq has been rising for 7 consecutive months. The average return in the 3 months after the 8th month is only 0.8%, and the volatility has increased significantly.
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Google gamma wall $325, Nvidia $185, Tesla $430
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After adjustment, silver CPI broke through the 45-year downward channel, and the spot price was $57.18, only 15% from the 2011 high.
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The gold/silver price ratio is 74. Historically, when the price is lower than 70, silver often still has 20-30% room to explode.
6. Bitcoin ETF and Option Wall: Institutions are quietly buying the bottom, while retail investors are still panicking
On November 28, the net inflow was US$240 million in a single day, and on December 1, another US$110 million was received.The IBIT option’s maximum put wall is $47 (corresponding to Bitcoin’s $83,000). If it falls below $43, it will point directly to $75,000; if it stands firm at $87,500, the daily 20 moving average can make up for the liquidity sweep, with a target of $98,000-102,000.Classic script: retail investors panic and institutions take full positions.
7. December Seasonal Scripts and the Real Test in 2026
The first week of December is likely to fluctuate to digest the overheated mood of Thanksgiving. The year-end sprint is completed two weeks before Christmas. The S&P 500 is likely to touch the 6,850-7,000 range, and Bitcoin is likely to recover to around US$100,000.But 2026 is the real test year: Japan will raise interest rates, the Federal Reserve may restart QT, the U.S. fiscal deficit is out of control, and Trump’s tariffs will be implemented. These thunders will explode sooner or later.
Conclusion
The market in December 2025 is not the end of the bull market, nor the beginning of the bear market, but “the illusion of liquidity in the final stage of the bull market is gradually being taken away.”All the dazzling signals – MSTR discount, yen appreciation, Fed repo, US bond auction tail risk, zero allocation of bonds – all point to the same fact: the global financial system is warming up for more severe fluctuations in 2026.
