jakiro
Shaw, bitchain vision
At around 13:00 p.m. Beijing time today, the cryptocurrency market fluctuated sharply and experienced a rapid decline in a short period of time.Bitcoin fell more than 2% in a short period of time, falling below $111,300 in a short period of time; Ethereum fell 5% and falling below $4,100 in a short period of time; other cryptocurrencies were also affected, with Solana falling 7% in 3 minutes, and Dogecoin falling nearly 11%.
Data shows that the amount of liquidated positions on the entire network reached US$1.026 billion within one hour, of which the amount of liquidated positions was approximately US$1.007 billion, and the amount of liquidated positions was approximately US$19.3699 million.In addition, according to CoinGecko data, the total market value of cryptocurrencies fell below $4 trillion and is now at $3.992 trillion, a 24-hour decline of 4.0%.Among them, BTC’s market share is 56.4%, and ETH’s market share is 12.5%.
Institutional evaluation of cryptocurrency trends shows that Bitcoin is facing heavy selling pressure starting from 13:59.Although Bitcoin fell to 111,300 in a short time, the price then rebounded as buyers bought on dips re-influx.
Let’s briefly analyze what causes this unpredictable market crash.
1.Bybit’s rumor of “user assets stolen” may trigger panic
Today, social media broke out, Ticker Wire said that the crypto exchange Bybit was hacked, and US$1.5 billion ETH assets were stolen. Hackers transferred and sold stolen crypto assets to increase market supply.This rumor has also triggered a sharp drop in the cryptocurrency market.
Subsequently, Bybit issued an official statement, in response to the so-called “Bybit encountered security vulnerabilities and user assets were stolen” rumored on the Internet that this news was completely untrue, user funds were safe, and platform transactions and operations were normal.Tina, the head of Bybit Chinese, also posted a message to defy the rumor, which originated from false information posted on a social media account with only 59 fans.Community users should not continue to spread false news to avoid unnecessary panic.
The authenticity of Bybit rumors is no longer important, what is important is that it has caused market panic, the selling under the panic of investors also stimulated short-term and large fluctuations in the market.
2.Altcoins represented by perpetual contracts such as Aster have surged, and the market has a demand for cooling down
Perp DEX, represented by DEX derivative platforms such as Hyperliquid and Binance-backed Aster, has recently become the focus of market attention..Hyperliquid’s market share rose rapidly, accounting for 6.9% in August, with trading volumes of US$21.4 billion in the whole month, ranking first in growth.Within a few hours after Aster’s native token ASTER was launched, the price soared by 400% from the issue price.Aster has processed more than $514 billion in transaction volume for 2 million users.After the token is issued,The platform’s total locked value (TVL) briefly exceeded $2 billion, but has now fallen back to $655 million.CoinGecko data shows thatAster rose to $1.94 yesterday, with a full dilution valuation (FDV) reaching $15.52 billion at one point.
As DEX platforms featuring derivatives trading, both Hyperliquid and Aster support perpetual contract trading with larger leverage ratios.Hyperliquid has a leverage limit of 40 times, while most Aster’s trading pairs have a leverage ratio of up to 100 times, and some specific assets have a leverage ratio of up to 1001 times.And Hyperliquid and Aster feature earning earnings also attract a lot of liquidity funds.
Fomo’s sentiment deepened last weekend, chasing Perp DEX, stimulated the rise of Perp DEX-related altcoins.MYX was $9.77, up 24 +3.6%; RAGE was $0.2965, up 24 +12.3%; DERI was $0.0063, up 24 +9.4%; AVNT was $2.03, up 24 +0.1%.
The popular gameplay of Perp DEX represented by Hyperliquid and Aster has caused the returns of a large number of investors to continue to rise, and has also stimulated more investors to flock to this track for leveraged contract trading.on the other hand,A higher leverage ratio means greater asset fluctuations and increases the risk of forced liquidation of investors..
3.Arthur Hayes sells Hype tokens, may exacerbate market panic
Last Sunday evening,BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes sells 96,628 HYPEs (worth $5.1 million) I bought a month ago.In his speech at the WebX Summit on August 25, he predicted that HYPE will increase by 126 times.Arthur Hayes forwarded a research report from his home office Maelstrom today, explaining why HYPE was sold.
Starting from November 29, 237.8 million HYPE tokens will be unlocked linearly within 24 months.At $50 per token, the team unlocks as much as $11.9 billion, and nearly $500 million of nominal amounts will flow into the market every month.The current repurchase level can only absorb about 17% of the funds.This means a monthly oversupply of $410 million.
The upcoming huge unlock volume of HYPE tokens may trigger market selling pressure, and this may be the reason why Arthur Hayes chose to sell Hype tokens at this time.
4.The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut is underway, and the expected positive impact may be exhausted
Last Thursday, the Federal Reserve’s latest FOMC resolution lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, restarting the pace of interest rate cuts that have been suspended since December last year.
The Fed’s expectation of interest rate cuts has lasted for a long time, and the market has been looking forward to positive stimulation of major assets such as stock markets and cryptocurrencies after the interest rate cut.The U.S. stock market Nasdaq and many technology stocks continue to hit new highs, and the cryptocurrency market is also at a high cyclical position.This week, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak on Tuesday on the economic outlook after he refuted market expectations for a rapid rate cut last week.In other markets, U.S. Treasury prices fell slightly, with 10-year Treasury yields rising 1 basis point to 4.14%.Spot gold broke the record high on the Fed’s resolution day, rising to $3,708 per ounce, up more than 0.6% during the day.
After the interest rate cuts have really been implemented, the FOMO sentiment accumulated in the market has been exhausted, which has instead increased concerns about uncertainty in prospects.”The positive news is the negative news” is likely to appear again.
5.DAT mode boom has cooled down, driving force has weakened
Digital Asset Treasury (DAT), one of the catalysts for this bull market, may have peaked after absorbing more than $20 billion in huge financing, and is quickly moving from the “blue ocean” to the highly inverted “red ocean”.along withMost treasury companies’ stock prices fell below their net asset value, and liquidity pressure emerged.
According to The Block, many DATs have already traded at their net asset value level or even lower.In addition, liquidity has also become a pressure point facing DAT.Coinbase has made it clear in a recent research report that the era of making money easily and ensuring a premium for net asset value (NAV) is over.The significant premiums that pioneers like MicroStrategy have previously enjoyed are disappearing, with increasing competition, increased execution risks and tightening regulatory restrictions resulting in a compression of the net asset value multiple.Some analysts pointed out thatWhile the DAT track is becoming saturated, funds are looking for the next trend, and fields such as DeFi, RWA and stablecoins are regaining attention.
During the high DAT boom, Bitcoin and multiple mainstream crypto assets are within the purchase range of corporate treasury, which undoubtedly drives the rise of related cryptocurrencies.andAs the DAT craze gradually fades, this model’s driving effect on the crypto market will also weaken..
