jakiro
Original Author: Flowie, CHAINCATCHER
Last week, Tether released the 2024 Q2 financial report.Tether Q2’s net operating profit reached 1.3 billion US dollars, and its profit in the first half of 2024 reached $ 5.2 billion, a record high.
The half -year profit is US $ 5.2 billion, which is equivalent to earning nearly $ 30 million a day, which makes many listed companies be at reach.But the numb Tether may not be as beautiful as the financial report.
On June 31, the EU’s newly introduced “MICA” bill took effect, which means that Tether’s stable coins officially faced in batches in Europe.The encrypted exchanges such as Binance, OKX, UPHOLD, Bitstamp have all announced that the bill was announced by almost all USDT transactions in Europe.
Competitive rival Circle has obtained the legal permission of “MICA”, which can sell its USDC and Eurc, which can be sold in Europe.
Europe is the largest area of encryption.According to a recent research released by Coinwire, European cumulative cryptocurrency trading volume accounts for 37.32%of the global market.
Circle is taking the market share that cannot be ignored from Tether.According to the CCDATA report, after the effectiveness of European regulations, the USDC transaction of the centralized exchange increased by 48%.
Since its establishment in 2014, Tether, which has experienced many cryptocrete and regulating FUD, has now grown into a behemoth.Tether is “big but not poured” in the future, or is it still difficult to escape the risk of “out”?
USDC transaction volume multiple times has greatly surpassed USDT
As the bull market starts, the market value of stable currency continues to grow.According to the latest report released by CCData Research, as of the end of July, the stablecoin has risen for 10 consecutive months.
USDT, as the largest market value, is also increasing, dominating nearly 70%of stablecoin transactions.But one signal that cannot be ignored is that USDT’s largest opponent USDC is currently the first month after the monthly trading volume of December 2023, and in 2024, the market value and transaction volume of USDC has also increased significantly, especially in terms of transaction volume many times.Significantly exceed USDT.
According to data jointly released by VISA and Allium Labs, on March 24, 2024, the transaction volume of USDC was almost five times that of USDT when the week closed.On April 21, 2024, the weekly trading volume of USDT has shrunk to $ 89 billion, while USDC increases to $ 455 billion.
According to Kaiko’s report analysis, the reason why USDC is becoming more and more popular is that users are increasingly adopted and preferred to be regulated by regulatory stablecoins.
The attributes of USDC’s relative compliance regulatory also make it the first choice for customers to enter the encryption field.
This year, Berlaide launched the token -based fund BUIDL, Buidl and USD 1: 1 hook. The holder may be similar to a “securities” that has obtained a stable currency.In order to ensure that investors can achieve stable currency at 24/7/365, they choose to cooperate with Circle to establish a smart contract control USDC liquidity pool for investors.
After European regulations came into effect in July, USDC’s transaction volume also increased again.According to CCData data, after the centralized exchanges removed the USDT transaction in Europe, the transaction volume of USDC transactions increased by 48.1%to $ 135 billion, a record high.
In addition to ushered in the opportunity of growth in a centralized exchange, the growth of USDC on some active public chains this year cannot be ignored.
In August last year, Circle received Coinbase’s shares and support, and Coinbase announced that it will start on the six new chains.
On the Base chain of Coinbase, USDC accounts for 91%of the total stable currency supply.Base does not support USDT.Data on June 18 showed that the supply of USDC’s nearly 90 days on the Base Chain increased by more than 1000%.
On the Solana chain, Bankless shared a set of data in the X platform, “USDC accounts for about 70%of the total stable coin supply on the Solana chain, and the transaction volume of USDC and USDT on Solana this week is 19: 1.”
According to Bankless, the reason why USDC stands on Solana is the reason that the Circle and Solana Foundation will motivate developers and promote the integration of trading platforms.
For example, platforms such as Solana Ecology’s Solend Protocol and SuperTeam provide developer rewards in the form of USDC, and Circle’s cross -chain transmission protocols (CCTP) and Circle’s Web3 service awards launched on Solana are promoting the growth of USDC on the Solana chain.Essence
After the European crisis, is the compliance problem still a potential bomb?
Fud Tether’s views have never stopped due to regulatory compliance issues.
In addition to the European “MICA” Act, the “Lummis-Gillibrand Payment Stability Act” proposed by the United States Senator in April this year was also pointed out by many institutions to threaten Tether.
The “Lummis-Gillibrand Payment Stability Coin Act” requires a stable currency with a circulation of more than $ 1 billion, implemented the same strict supervision as banks, and encourages more banks to participate in the stabilized coin market.
Rating agencies S & P Global pointed out that most US dollar stable currency issuers, including USDTs with the highest market share, are not subject to US regulations.However, if the bill is finally established, it may promote more banks to enter the stablecoin market and affect the dominant position of Tether.
Recently, JP Morgan’s report also shows that cryptocurrency supervision measures in the United States have been strengthened in recent months.Before the upcoming presidential election, paying the stabilization currency bill is most likely to be passed, which will be conducive to compliant US stabilized currency and threatening the dominant position of Tether.
The German Bank’s report also questioned Tether’s operating stability and its transparency.
Although Tether trading activities mainly occur in emerging markets outside the United States, the United States is still one of the most important markets in the encryption field.If Tether does not respond, the market may be missed.
Either understanding the trend of regulatory compliance, or based on competitive considerations.This year, there are also many founders of encrypted companies warning that the next regulatory heavy hammer may fall towards Tether.
In May of this year, Ripple CEO BRAD GarlingHouse broke the news on podcasts. Since the FTX collapse and former CEO SBF, and the recent CEO Zhao Changpeng (CZ), the former CEO Zhao Changpeng (CZ), was convicted and sentenced.Tether.
BRAD was subsequently countered by the CEO Paulo Ardoino of Tether, and the two fell into the “saliva war” for several days.
Ripple also announced the launch of a stablecoin linked to the US dollar this year. Paulo believes that Ripple hurts Tether maliciously as a competitor.
But BRAD insisted that it is not a deliberate attack. He believes that the US government has clearly stated that he hopes to strengthen the control of stable currency issuers supported by the US dollar. Therefore, as the largest participant, Tether is the target of their attention.
In March of this year, after Arthur Hayes’ family office Maelstrom invested in the new type of stablecoin protocol Ethena, Arthur Hayes is also an individual>blogThe Changfa Culture explained why the Fed, the US Treasury, and the large U.S. banks with political relations hope to destroy Tether.
Arthur Hayes believes that the bank model of Tether’s full reserve is with the Federal Reserve to reduce the number of bank reserves, and run counter to the established targets that suppress inflation.
And Tether is too big.Tether is now one of the biggest holders of US Treasury bonds.Tether and the growth of similar stablecoins in the cryptocurrency market have brought risks to the US Treasury market.
In addition, Tether is too profitable and will attract bank competition.
MAESTROM analysts made a speculative balance sheet and profit and loss statement made by Tether, showing that each employee’s income of each employee is $ 62 million.Come on the profitability of Tether.
It is expected that in the next year, in addition to the United States, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, the United Kingdom, the UAE and other important encrypted areas will launch comprehensive stable currency supervision rules.
After global regulatory regulations are gradually landing, whether Tether really faces the risk of the situation, it may be difficult to conclude for the time being.
Some views believe that the US government has no reason to find Tether’s trouble.
GlassNode analyst Checkɱate said the USDT issued by Tether is essentially equivalent to CBDC in the United States. He believes that Tether’s existence has been acquiescence from the US government.”USDT absorbs US government’s government bonds and supports US finance.”
In terms of relationships with government supervision, Tether CEO Paulo once said in BRAD that Tether has been working with law enforcement agencies in different countries.
339 requests have been blocked in the past three years, of which 158 are cooperated with the US law enforcement agencies.”
Some opinion believes that the same as USDT, like the US dollar, is not related to the distribution agency. As long as Tether is frozen with the law enforcement department, the danger is not expected.
Tether does not have a clear specific statement about how to cope with the retreat of the European Union and the potential threats of other regions.But Tether is trying to get rid of unilateral control in the United States.
In June this year, Tether invested $ 18.75 million in compliance blockchain financial institutions XREX Group.
Huang Yaowen, the founder of Xrex Group, revealed in the media interview that after this investment, Tether and Xrex will launch XAU 1 through cooperation with the Unitas Foundation.
XAU 1 is a unit currency that is extended by Tether Gold, code -named XAUT, and is linked to the US dollar value. It provides a stable financial alternative solution for stable currency users, and it is a hedging tool against inflation.
The purpose of launching XAU 1 is to hope that while maintaining the US dollar price of everyone’s habit, it gradually allows the US dollar to be neutralized without being unilaterally controlled by the United States.”Because Tether knows clearly that the money earned through the interest of US debt, the control of the control is not at the United States Federal Statistics, so the money made from 80% ~ 85% will take it to buy with the Swiss Gold Farm.gold.”
In addition, Tether is seeking business growth beyond the stablecoin and has expanded to many fields such as Bitcoin mining, AI and education.
Or to cope with the pressure of regulatory, Tether is also increasing lobbying costs.Data from non -profit organization OpenSecrets show that Tether’s parent company IFINEX increased lobbying expenditure by more than 150%in 2023.
The “fatty meat” of stablecoin never lacks predators
In addition to the hidden dangers of supervision, Tether has never lack of challengers.
At the beginning of last year, I have been steadily sitting in the third largest stabilized currency BUSD. Due to the regulatory pressure of the US SEC, the historical stage was exited overnight.But the stablecoin market soon welcomed multiple replenishment players.
The web2 payment giant PayPal launched a stablecoin PYUSD, which is regarded as the stable currency FDUSD replaced by BUSD.In addition, the old blue chip DEFI, such as CURVE, AAVE, Frax, is actively launching native stablecoins; and some new forces of reinosaus stabilization of LSD and RWA have also been born.
This year, Berlaide, mentioned earlier, launched a tokened fund BUIDL similar to the stable currency, which is a certain degree of money.
In addition, this year, there are some innovative stable currency agreements that are still rising strongly.Ethena’s USDE is a new type of stablecoin supported by Ethereum derivatives. From February, the main network was launched in February. In half a year, the market value exceeded $ 3 billion, becoming the fourth largest stablecoin of DAI.
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The investment institutions behind Ethena are like a novel.In February this year, Ethena won, Dragonfly, Brevan Howard Digital, and Bitmex founder Arthur Hayes’ family office Maelstrom, PayPal Ventures, Franklin, Avon Ventures, Binance Labs, Deribi T, Gemini and Kraken1400 perfect dollar financing, valuation also reached 300 million US dollars.In July last year, Ethena also received $ 6.5 million in Dragonfly.
This may also show that some market players and capital believe that although Tether and Circle currently occupy almost most of the stable currency markets, the stable coin pattern still has huge adjustments.The distribution to users and other aspects has provided subversion opportunities for the latecomers.
