jakiro
Jessy, Bitchain Vision Realm
On July 5, the crypto market ushered in a big diving again, and Bitcoin fell to about $ 54,000, and more cottage coins had even fell below the lowest point of the bear market in 2022.
Bitcoin continues to explore, and the cottage coin has suffered panic selling. According to the data of Coingecko,The market value of the global cryptocurrency has now fallen below $ 21 trillion, which has changed -7.81%in the past 24 hours.
The direct reason for the decline or Bitcoin is facing a lot of pressure, and the fundamental reason is that the macroeconomic level is unclear.Where will the market turn better?
Large pressure and weakening macro expectations
The derivation of the loop has begun. From yesterday, the positions of many giant whales have been liquidated. In the past 24 hours, the encryption market has exploded about 700 million US dollars.The speed of decline is rapid and continuously breaks through everyone’s bottom line.In fact, from June to the present, the major factors that have fallen in the market have not changed, which is roughly the following points:
1. MT.GOX began to repay BTC from some creditors
The Mentougou incident was a thunder that was buried for more than ten years, and now it has finally exploded.
On May 28 of this year, the bankruptcy exchange Exchange MT.GOX Cold Wallet account has begun to transfer a total of 14,1685 bitcoins one after another, which is worth about $ 98 billion at that time, which has caused panic in the market.And this part of BTC will be released from the creditors from July to October.
On July 5, MT.GOX has begun compensation for creditors.Japan’s creditors @VoiceonFate posted on X today that they have received MT.GOX’s BTC and BCH compensation through the designated exchange platform, and the number of compensation is 13%of the number of accounts held in the year.
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July 5th,Mt.goxThe transfer record, including the transfer to the Japanese Bitbank Exchange
MT.GOX lost about 750,000 Bitcoin of users at the time, while MT.GOX still held 141,686 BTCs, accounting for 0.72% of the total supply of Bitcoin circulation.If these coins are paid to the creditor’s hands, it is considered to bring a large pressure on Bitcoin. Some analysts point out that if the general Bitcoin is sold, the price of Bitcoin will fall to nearly $ 47,000.
(More about the pressure brought by MT.GOX compensation for payment, please refer to “Galaxy Research Supervisor: How much Pochide the MT.GOX is about to pay the BTC “.
2. The selling of Bitcoin and other Bitcoin
The German government holds 4,5624 Bitcoin. In less than a week since June 25, it has successively transferred to the transaction to more than $ 425 million in Bitcoin.
In addition to the German government, governments in the United States, Britain, China, Ukraine and other countries hold a large number of Bitcoin.
According to data on the chain, the US government also sent 3,940 bitcoin to the Coinbase Prime wallet on June 26, 2024.
3. Miners sell
After halving, the revenue of the miners decreased sharply.Due to the deterioration of income, many inefficient miners were forced to choose to withdraw from the market, and the Bitcoin computing power decreased significantly.Oklink data shows that the computing power of Bitcoin’s entire network in the past two months has decreased by 15%compared with the peak, and in the past week, it has continued to decline.
At the same time as computing power has decreased, the miners have recently increased their sales and become one of the largest selling pressure in the market.At present, miners focus on short -term interests.INTOTHEBLOCK data shows that Bitcoin miners have sold more than 50,000 Bitcoin since 2024. The bitcoin reserves held by miners have gradually dropped to the lowest level in history.
4. Slow down speed of institutional purchase flow
The liquidity of the market is currently insufficient.
The core factor of boosting Bitcoin’s rise is undoubtedly Bitcoin spot ETF.MatrixPort has issued a statement saying that institutional investors, including asset management companies, investment consultants, pension funds and sovereignty wealth funds, are buying Bitcoin spot ETFs.The rapid influx of institutional funds has caused Bitcoin demand to increase, and prices have risen.
Recently, this consensus has been challenged. Since June, the funds in Bitcoin spot ETF have been in a large outflow for most of the time.
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5. Macro expectations weaken
At the Monetary Policy Conference on June 12, the Fed maintains the target range of the federal fund interest rate at 5.25%to 5.5%. According to the announcement of the announcement of the interest rate hike path, the Federal Reserve officials predict that the federal fund interest rate is medium valueBy the end of 2024, it will drop to 5.1%, which means that the year may be reduced by only once, which is less than the previous predicted.
Will there be interest rate cuts this year?At present, it seems more likely.
How long does it take to digest the market market?
If the market market is about to rise, the Federal Reserve has been fundamental.Judging from the current situation, the market gain is basically dominated by information, and the most direct improvement is the entry of macro -liquidity.
Another thing worth looking forward to is the US election. With the approaching of the election, the encryption war between Trump and Biden intensified.The “encrypted industry” has also become a bargaining chip for politicians to win voters.The first is Trump’s frequent actions. Choose encrypted characters as an encrypted assistant for its elections, open platform Bitcoin Miner Conference, and so on.Biden also attended the Bitcoin round table and contacted the personnel of encryption.The game between the two parties is undoubtedly favorable to the encryption industry. From the sudden approval of Ethereum spot ETF, you can see the benefits of the game.
From this point of view, interest rate cuts and US elections have actually favored the encryption industry for a long time.
In the short term, in fact, the relationship is already in the end, first of allBitcoin has fallen to the shutdown price of some mining machines, Falling to shutdown currency prices generally indicate phased to the end.
At present, the USDT premium is also high. According to OKX data, the current off -site price of USDT has risen to 7.38 yuan, while the US dollar against the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.29 yuan. Generally, the U premium is caused by a lot of buying.At present, everyone’s bottom -up mood is strong.
However, it should be noted that the short -term market still has greater uncertainty.The first is that the digestion of the pressure requires a certain period of timeFor example, Mentougou’s compensation has just begun. According to the trustee document, MT GOX creditors may need to wait for up to three months to receive Bitcoin or Bitcoin cash repayments.The trustee has previously explained in detail that the timetable that can be seen in the creditor’s account may vary from the exchange.Among them, Kraken has 90 days to deal with payment, and Bitstamp may take up to 60 days, and Bitgo will see payment within 20 days.SBI VC Trade and Bitbank will complete payment within 14 days.From this perspective, perhaps in the next three months, the market is more worn.
Ethereum’s spot ETF boots have not yet landed. If the spot ETF is not as good as market expectations in the future, the market will further fall.
However, in the decline market, some of the mainstream coins such as bitcoin and Ethereum can be built in batches.
