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As the last quarter of 2024 approaches, the market shows signs of a potential bull phase coming.
While Bitcoin and altcoins are facing huge volatility throughout the year, some long-term indicators suggest that the coming months may be a turning point in the market.
A number of factors together indicate that the prospects for cryptocurrencies are very optimistic.
While the short-term price trend is unpredictable, I believe that the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 will be the best time.If you are interested in understanding why the upcoming cycle may bring considerable benefits, read on as we will analyze the key metrics in detail.
7 reasons why I think cryptocurrencies will be bullish in the fourth/first quarter —
1. Circular structure —
Complete loop structure
The market is volatile in cyclical terms, which usually include consolidation periods followed by explosive growth.
Historically, Bitcoin and other major assets have shown a repetitive pattern of long-term consolidation before breaking to new highs.
We are currently in this integration stage.
Compared with previous cycles, this cycle has fewer pauses because the consolidation period occurs more frequently in the previous cycle.This shows that we may be building momentum for breakthroughs.Historical data shows that these breakthroughs usually occur more than 500 days after the consolidation period.Currently, we are only 350 days into this phase, which means we may see a breakthrough in the coming weeks or so.
This consolidation is a critical period for market re-adjustment and strengthening, and usually gets rid of weakness before rebounding.Timing is crucial, and this cycle seems increasingly likely to continue to rise soon, possibly as early as the fourth quarter of 2024.
Notice:–I’m writing here about signs of strong cryptocurrencies from the fourth to the first quarter.It doesn’t mention short-term price downtrends; these are HTF ideas!
If this does not happen, it does not necessarily mean that the cycle has ended.Not anyway.
2. Closed at a higher time range —
One of the most visible signs of a potential bullish phase is to check the closing price of the higher time frame (HTF).Recently, Bitcoin has closed very strongly with a three-month (3M) candlestick chart.
The significance of this closing is that it broke through the low point of the previous candle, but eventually the closing price returned to the top.Historically, when such patterns appear, they usually indicate the beginning of a new trend.
There will be a sustained upward momentum whenever Bitcoin recovers its previous candle highs or lows over a longer period of time.We just saw this happening, and it’s another sign that the market may be preparing for a strong upside in the next quarter.
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3. Current LTF range —
At the lower time frame (LTF), Bitcoin’s price movement has been difficult to hit lower lows, indicating that the market is flattening.
This is a common phenomenon before the breakthrough.Recently, Bitcoin fell to $49,000 at one point, but eventually managed to regain the established range.This shows that despite short-term volatility, the market remains strong.
Breaking through the current range high may confirm a significant upward trend, but it is still possible to test the range low point again before this.
While short-term price movements may cause some uncertainty, the overall structure remains bullish.
4. Seasonality
Historically, October and November are both favorable months for Bitcoin and the broader market.
In fact, the strongest gains in Bitcoin’s history have occurred in these months, especially after a long period of consolidation.
In these months, the few exceptions to Bitcoin’s monthly closing declines are that the asset has already exceeded its previous highest price.This suggests that under normal market conditions, October and November provide a window for upward momentum.
With Bitcoin currently consolidation, there is a bullish momentum at the end of this year.
5. Half + Election —
Two big things that are about to happen may have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market: Bitcoin halving and the U.S. election.
The Bitcoin halving reduced the block rewards miners received, thus reducing the supply of Bitcoin, and historically this led to price increases in the coming months.
Similarly, once the results are announced, the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election will disappear.Elections often bring volatility to all financial markets, and once this uncertainty is eliminated, the market often returns to its previous trend.I believe the end of the election cycle will be a catalyst for the next cryptocurrency bull market.
6. Altcoins and cycles —
A loop can be divided into two parts:
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Bitcoin runs to range highs.
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Bitcoin broke through its all-time high, triggering a parabolic trend in altcoins.
Altcoins usually lag behind Bitcoin, and Bitcoin’s breaking through all-time highs will trigger a rebound in altcoins.
Interestingly, while Bitcoin was at range highs/ATH resistance levels in the previous cycle, altcoins have already broken through their diagonal resistance levels, resulting in a big uptrend.
When altcoins break through this level, the market moves.We are now seeing altcoins showing similar diagonal breakthroughs, while Bitcoin is at resistance.But if the altcoin loses this breakthrough, this argument will be untenable.
Again, this article is not predicting tomorrow’s price.Altcoins may still be unable to hold on to the 0.25 level and diagonal breakout, possibly returning to the range low, while Bitcoin will set another low in its range.
7. Altcoin structure
Many altcoins show signs of entering late stages of a local downtrend cycle, some of which tend to level up and appear to move toward the accumulation phase.
Assets like SUI have begun to lead the shift.If BTC keeps its range or moves higher, altcoins will follow closely, potentially bringing significant gains.
It is worth noting, however, that if Bitcoin returns to the range low, altcoins may return to the third phase of its local downtrend cycle and continue to maintain range fluctuations for a period of time.That being said, the structure of many altcoins suggests that we may be about to end this downward trend and prepare for a more bullish phase.
I don’t predict short-term price trends here.
My main plan now is to accumulate altcoins near the interval low according to the periodic structure and interval low point recovery settings.
I’ve been buying at lows in April and August and am now paying close attention to breaking through 0.25 levels as a trigger for the upswing.
In short, the market is showing a series of technical and macroeconomic signals, indicating that the bull market is coming.Strong performances in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 are ready.
While short-term volatility may still occur, long-term indicators indicate that the market is recovering.For those who want to accumulate assets, such periods won’t come again, especially for altcoins.
Pay close attention to Bitcoin’s price trends, but remember that the most profitable opportunities often occur during consolidation periods.Accumulating funds during market downturns could result in a generous return as the market is preparing for the next round of gains.
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