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Introduction
Investors have been very cautious since October and risk aversion in global markets has been high.Although U.S. stocks hit new highs at the end of October, they have pulled back significantly since November due to liquidity, reversal of interest rate cut expectations, and AI skepticism.It is expected that the market’s focus this week will turn to NVIDIA’s financial report and US CPI data in September.Cryptocurrency sentiment has not yet recovered since the huge earthquake on October 10, and has shown weakness in the short term.In this article, Pandu will take you to review and analyze the market performance of the past month.
1.October market review, outlook andPandu ETF Performance
In October, the U.S. stock market quickly recovered from the panic over the unexpected escalation of the trade conflict between China and the United States.Arrange TACO (Trump always chicken out) in advance.Amid the busy performance period for U.S. stocks and expectations for the implementation of Sino-U.S. negotiations and interest rate cuts, major U.S. stock indexes hit new highs from October 28 to 29.However,Since November, the hawkish statements of many Federal Reserve officials have lowered expectations of interest rate cuts, the tightening of liquidity in the United States, and a series of news headlines from technology giants in the past two weeks, U.S. stock indexes have undergone significant adjustments.The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed up 2.3% and 4.7% respectively in October, but retreated 1.6% and 3.5% in the first two weeks of November.
Investors have been very cautious since October and risk aversion in global markets has been high.Although the market index has reached new highs, there are endless discussions about bubbles.After the news broke that regional banks in the United States were experiencing thunderstorms and OpenAI was seeking government guarantees for financing, the market immediately experienced a “sell first, ask questions later” phenomenon.Although most of the financial reports of technology giants represented by M7 exceeded market expectations, “ghost stories” about American AI have emerged one after another in a short period of time.This round of retracement is mainly due to the impact of market sentiment. It is also a healthy adjustment since the rise of the US stock technology sector. It has not brought about fundamental changes to the investment logic of AI.
Figure: Since October, the CNN Fear and Greed Index has pointed to extreme fear several times
Image source: CNN
Cryptocurrencies have also seen significant declines since October,The reasons behind this include a series of short-term liquidity shortages, profit-taking by giant whales, and investor distrust caused by suspicions of government insider operations.Although the current trend is weak, there is no definite signal that it will enter a bear market directly.A more detailed analysis will be done below.
Entering the third week of November, the AI bubble panic in U.S. stocks may gradually turn rational with the extent of the decline.The focus of attention will turn to NVIDIA’s financial report and US CPI data in September., bringing more certainty to the prospects of AI narrative and the macroeconomics.
Pandu Innovation ETF (3056.HK) and Blockchain ETF (3112.HK) set new records again in October, the stock price rose by 1.7% and 10.3% respectively, and reached new highs in net asset value on October 9 and 28 respectively.From its establishment in December 2022 to the end of October this year, 3056 and 3112The cumulative increases were 212% and 245% respectively., converted intoThe annualized rate of return is approximately 45% and 49%.Faced with short-term market investment noise, Pan Du believes that the heavy holdings in existing ETFs have strong certainty and are optimistic about long-term performance. Therefore, except for a small rebalancing of positions, there will be no major position adjustments in October.
2. Cryptocurrency market review in October
Whale Take Profit Price Indicates Short-Term Resistance
According to CryptoQuant data, the current average holding cost of Bitcoin for short-term and long-term whales is approximately $112,788.In early October, Bitcoin fell below this realization cost, triggering panic selling and causing large-scale liquidations among leveraged traders.Around November 10, systemic risks within the crypto ecosystem (especially Binance-related incidents) further intensified market pressure, and short-term sentiment was obviously under pressure.
Image source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin currently falls below the 200-day moving average, and the technical picture shows short-term weakness, but this does not mean that it has entered a new round of bear market.The continued inflow of institutional funds, stable on-chain demand, and the average cost of whales remaining around $112,788 all indicate that the current adjustment is a correction in the middle of the bull market rather than a trend reversal.Historical data shows that a short-term drop below the 200-day moving average is often a stage for the main force to gain momentum, rather than the starting point of a long-term decline.
Image source: TradingView
Binance liquidation impact on October 10th
On October 10, 2025, according to Coinglass data, the crypto market’s single-day liquidation hit a record high of $19 billion, of which nearly $7 billion was liquidated in just 40 minutes.The initial callback triggered by macro factors quickly evolved into a mechanical chain reaction: leveraged long positions were forced to liquidate, liquidity dried up instantly, market makers exited the market, exchange order books collapsed sharply amid extreme volatility, and spreads widened sharply.This incident exposed the fragility of the current exchange leverage and collateral system, ultimately clearing the market of excessive speculation bubbles, prompting traders to generally reduce leverage and shift to more robust risk control positions.Essentially, this suggests that structural liquidity factors, rather than just investor sentiment, have become the main drivers of volatility in today’s markets.
Image source: TradingView
Giant whale position differentiation
Recent on-chain data clearly shows that the two giant whale groups have clearly differentiated:
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Old whale (long-term huge holder): Holds about 3.3-3.6 million BTC, mainly from accumulation in the range of US$30,000-60,000.Its balance has continued to decline slowly since 2024-2025, showing that it is gradually selling at high levels and cashing in profits.
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New Whale (newly entered huge holder): In recent months, a total of approximately 350,000-450,000 BTC have been absorbed in the higher price range of US$110,000-125,000.The current adjustment from October to November has left its books with unrealized losses of US$3 billion to US$6 billion, and new large buyers are facing obvious pressure.
This pattern has formed a tug-of-war between “old money chip distribution” and “new money relay”.If subsequent capital inflows can fully absorb Lao Whale’s selling, the upward trend is expected to continue; otherwise, a deeper adjustment cannot be ruled out.
Image source:X
Policy Breakthrough – US Opens Door to ETP
The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Department of the Treasury recently issued the landmark Revenue Procedure 2025-31, formally establishing a safe harbor framework that allows crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) to participate in staking and distribute rewards to retail investors without incurring additional tax burdens.This long-awaited policy removes core structural barriers that have historically prevented compliant funds from participating in staking.The main requirements of the new regulations include: the trust only holds a single PoS asset, uses qualified custodians and independent verifiers, and maintains a redemption liquidity mechanism approved by the SEC.
This decision is widely regarded as an important milestone in the deep integration of institutions and income innovation. It will give birth to a new generation of pledgeable ETFs, significantly expand investor participation, improve the level of network decentralization, and open up new income channels for investors.The market expects that starting from mid-2026, the first batch of products integrating staking functions will be launched, more hybrid spot + staking funds will be approved, and the demand for mainstream PoS assets such as Ethereum and Solana will further increase.
Image source:X
Summary of this month
Bitcoin briefly fell below the whale cost line of $112,788 and the 200-day moving average, triggering liquidation and short-term fluctuations. However, strong on-chain demand and ETF capital inflows indicate that this is only a correction in the middle of the bull market, not the start of a bear market.The over US$19 billion liquidation shock triggered by Binance on October 10 exposed the fragility of the market making and leverage system and reset the market’s excessive leverage.The old whale continued to distribute profits moderately, while the new whale suffered a large book loss, forming a dynamic balance between profit taking and relay.At the regulatory level, the IRS’s latest safe harbor guidance clearly allows crypto ETPs to be pledged and distributed rewards without additional taxes for the first time, paving the way for pledgeable ETFs and significantly accelerating the entry of institutional funds and product innovation.
3. Comments on China’s October macro data
Economic activity data for October showed thatAfter entering the fourth quarter, the growth momentum of China’s economy is weakening.On October 14, the National Bureau of Statistics released October economic data, which were mainly lower than expected:
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China exceeds scale in Octoberindustrial added valueIt increased by 4.9% year-on-year, compared with the expected increase of 5.2%, and the previous value increased by 6.5%.The growth rate has dropped significantly compared with September, which may be due to the disturbance of the holidays – factories have advanced orders to September in consideration of the National Day holiday.The average growth rate of industrial added value in September and October was still higher than that in August.
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China January-Octoberfixed asset investment(excluding farmers) fell by 1.7% year-on-year, and is expected to fall by 0.7%.Compared with a decrease of 0.5% from January to September, this data shows that the decline in October was significantly larger.Among them, China in OctoberReal estate development investmentStill weak, year-on-year -14.7%, expected -14.5%, previous value -13.9%.
Image source: Bloomberg
Those higher than expected include:
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China’s total retail sales of consumer goods in October increased by 2.9% year-on-year.Although it slowed down for the fifth consecutive month, it was partly due to the early start of Double Eleven, which was still better than the expected 2.7%, and the previous value increased by 3%;
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China’s urban surveyed unemployment rate in October was 5.1%, expected to increase by 5.2%, from the previous value of 5.2%.
Even if the overall macro data slows down, the government will most likely not introduce new stimulus measures in the short term.On the one hand, China’s GDP growth has been steady in the first three quarters, and tariff pressure has also been eased to some extent in the short term, which means that economic growth in the fourth quarter only needs to reach about4.5%With such a low threshold, the annual growth target of 5% can be achieved.On the other hand, policymakers may focus their efforts onThe “15th Five-Year Plan” launched in 2026planningOn various structural issues raised, policy space will be reserved for taking further measures to support economic growth early next year.
However,There are also some early positive signals, indicating that China’s consumption is picking up.OctoberCPITurning positive, it increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year. There is room to stabilize and turn positive next year.At the same time, at the latest quarterly results meeting, the management of consumer goods companies such as LVMH, Hermès, and L’Oréal specifically mentioned signs of recovery in the Chinese market.When tracking high-end offline physical consumption, Swire Properties, duty-free channels, etc. also indicate that offline shopping mall passenger traffic is also picking up.
Image source: Visual China
Pan Du believes that China’s economy is bottoming out and recovering.Although China’s economic growth may show signs of slowing down in the fourth quarter, the full-year GDP growth target of 5% is likely to be achieved, and more policy support can be expected in 2026.Investors’ macro expectations are relatively close to actual results, and some forward signals indicate upside. This situation is more beneficial to the development of leading companies such as Internet platforms.A. The overall valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is also “cost-effective”. We will pay close attention to suitable investment opportunities.
