MetaMask is about to issue coins. Why are the market still having doubts behind the high valuation?

MetaMask, the self-hosted crypto wallet with the largest number of users in the world, has finally heard of the upcoming issuance of native tokens.ConsenSys CEO Joe Lubin confirmed in an interview on September 18, 2025 that MetaMask native tokens (in the industry speculated that it is simply $MASK) “may arrive earlier than everyone expected.”

This news immediately attracted high attention from the market.As one of the most important traffic entrances in the Ethereum ecosystem, what does it mean to issue coins in MetaMask?Why choose to issue coins at the current time?What are the uses and value support for its tokens?How will it affect the competitive landscape of the entire crypto wallet track?This article will conduct an in-depth analysis of these issues and give the author’s insights based on MetaMask’s product layout, generation machine, token economic model, valuation analysis and ecological coordination.

The arrow on the string: MetaMask’s “Mid-life Crisis”

Since its launch in 2016, MetaMask has been the “big brother” in the wallet field, with the largest user base and the highest popularity.To date, it has evolved from a simple Ethereum wallet to a comprehensive Web3 portal, with its product layout including:

• Multi-chain self-hosted wallet: Provide browser extensions and mobile wallets that support Ethereum and EVM compatible chains, and extend the support scope to non-EVM chains through the Snaps plug-in, with approximately 30 million monthly active users.

• Built-in trading function: Integrated token Swap aggregator, it can integrate quotations from multiple DEXs, with a cumulative fee income of approximately US$325 million.

• Bridge and fiat currency channels: Provide cross-chain bridging services and channels for fiat currency purchase, and support simplifying the registration process of new users through social account login and other means.

• Pledge and income: Built-in Ethereum staking portal and Portfolio asset management interface to facilitate users to manage their multi-chain asset portfolio.

• Institutional wallet: MetaMask Institutional (MMI) is specially designed for institutional users, providing more advanced permission control and multi-signature functions.

• **MetaMask USD Stablecoin (mUSD)**: The US dollar stablecoin announced in August 2025, is custodially issued by Stripe’s Bridge, and is scheduled to be launched on Ethereum and Linea.This is the industry’s first native stablecoin issued by a self-custodial wallet, aiming to improve the convenience of users holding and using US dollar assets in their wallets.

• MetaMask Card Encryption Card: A debit card launched in partnership with Mastercard, which supports the use of crypto assets directly for consumer payments and instant conversions.

However, the “throne” is not a worry-free place, and challengers from all directions are becoming increasingly powerful.

• Trust Wallet (TWT):As the core wallet of Binance ecosystem, Trust Wallet has downloaded more than 200 million mobile devices, and the number of active users has reached tens of millions, which is on the same level as MetaMask.Moreover, it issued token TWT as early as 2020, successfully using token incentives to retain a large number of users.

• Phantom:The leading wallet of the Solana ecosystem, known for its ultimate smooth user experience, has quickly accumulated millions of users in the Solana ecosystem.Now, it has also begun to expand to multi-chain and enter Ethereum, directly threatening the core territory of MetaMask.

Faced with fierce competition, simple product iteration has become insufficient.MetaMask had to adopt the classic strategy of “issuing coins to attract traffic”, which upgraded the competition dimension from “what wallet is better to use” to “Which ecosystem can I share and share its growth dividends”. By conducting large-scale airdrops to tens of millions of loyal and old users,$MASKIt will become the strongest weapon to activate silent users, expand market voice, and consolidate user loyalty.The issuance of coins at this moment is expected to help MetaMask win back its position as the king of Web3 entrances.

In addition, the current timing of issuing coins is also closely related to the regulatory environment.In February 2025, ConsenSys reached an agreement with the SEC, and the SEC agreed to revoke the allegations of unregistered securities or brokers against MetaMask, which temporarily greatly alleviated the regulatory pressure faced by MetaMask.At this time, the issuance of coins can be said to be “After passing this village, there will be no such store”. At the same time, other products in the ConsenSys ecosystem (such as Linea and mUSD) have taken advantage of this wave of “regulatory dividends”. If MetaMask moves slowly, it may miss the opportunity to work together with these products, thereby dragging the operation of the entire ecological flywheel of ConsenSys.

More than “Air Coin”: Potential Use Cases and Value Capture of $MASK

Although the official has not released the token white paper (even$MASKThis token symbol is only speculated by the community), but based on industry experience, we can reasonably speculate$MASKThe token will have the following core functions to avoid becoming an “air coin” with no actual value.

• Governance:This is the basic utility of all mainstream protocol tokens.$MASK holders will have the right to vote on the future development of the agreement, and the scope of decisions may include adjusting the handling rates of MetaMask Swap, determining the development priorities of new features, managing the use of funds for community vaults, etc.

• Fee Discounts:This is the most effective way to attract high-frequency trading users directly.By holding or pledging a certain amount of $MASK tokens, users can enjoy the ability to use MetaMask Swap (current rate is 0.875%) and cross-chain bridge functionsDiscounts or even exemptions for handling fees.This model has been successfully verified by Trust Wallet’s TWT tokens, which can effectively improve user stickiness and transaction volume.

• Staking & Revenue Share:In order to enable token holders to directly share the growth dividends of the agreement, MetaMask can design a staking mechanism.By pledging $MASK tokens, users can share part of the agreement’s revenue proportionally.These revenue sources can be diverse, such as fees generated by MetaMask Swap, or interest income generated by its native stablecoin mUSD through its reserve assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds.

• Exclusive Access:$MASK tokens can also serve as an identity or equity certificate to provide its holders with a range of exclusive benefits, such as priority experience of new beta features, eligibility or annual fee waiver for application for a limited edition MetaMask Card, and access to early token sale of MetaMask incubation or strategic partnership projects.

Value Geometry: Multi-dimensional Valuation Analysis of $MASK Tokens

Valuation is the most concerned issue of the market.Although the $MASK token has not been issued yet, we can deduce its potential value from multiple dimensions such as project fundamentals, comparable project valuation, and ecological logic.

Valuation based on forecast revenue

First consider the source of income:

1. MetaMask’s main revenue comes from its built-in Swap feature, which charges a 0.875% service fee per transaction.According to DeFiLlama, its annualized revenue has stabilized between about $49 million and $57 million.

2. With the launch of mUSD stablecoin, MetaMask has the opportunity to obtain interest rate spread returns from the funds accumulated by users.For example, if mUSD circulates on-chain to $1 billion (a not too high target), it can generate about $50 million in interest income per year based on the current 5% US Treasury interest rate.Of course, this part of the profit needs to be shared with the partner Bridge/M0 agreement, but it will still be a considerable new source of income.

3. Consider MetaMask’s other sources of income, such as deposit and withdrawal fees, possible other transaction fees, etc.

Overall, MetaMask’s overall revenue is expected to break through in the next 1-2 years.$100 millionannual income level.Referring to the price-to-sales ratio (P/S) of a technology company, give it a P/S of 10-15 times, then its valuation is about$1 billion to $1.5 billionbetween.

Compare user size with Trust Wallet

MetaMask has about twice the monthly active users (about 30 million) than Trust Wallet (about 17 million), while TWT’s FDV is about $1.2 billion.Therefore, it can be inferred that the FDV of $MASK may also reach twice as much, i.e.About $2.4 billion.

Compare revenue with Trust Wallet

TWT’s annualized revenue is about $3.5 million, but its full diluted valuation (FDV) is as high as $1.2 billion, and its “FDV/annualized revenue” multiple reaches an astonishingAbout 342 times, which reflects the market’s extremely high premium for the “Binance Ecology” behind it, but this valuation may be too high.

In comparison, MetaMask’s annual revenue for Swap fees alone is about US$50 million, about 15 times that of TWT.Considering that MetaMask is better than Trust Wallet in terms of user base, brand reputation and revenue channels, the market should give $MASK a valuation expectation that it is not lower than TWT.

Even if the future revenue of new businesses such as mUSD and MetaMask cards is not considered, the following valuation ranges can be obtained based on the current annual revenue of approximately US$50 million and combined with different market sentiment:

• Pessimistic situation: 30 times P/S (about 10% of TWT), FDV is$1.5 billion.

• Basic scenario: Give 100 times P/S (about 30% of TWT), FDV is$5 billion.

• Optimistic situation: Give 200 times P/S (about 60% of TWT), FDV is$10 billion.

Refer to ConsenSys’ financing history

We can also refer to the private equity valuation of its parent company ConsenSys.After 2022’s Series D financing, ConsenSys’ overall valuation reached $7 billion.Although this valuation includes other assets such as Infura, MetaMask is undoubtedly its main value carrier.Therefore, this number provides us with a ceiling reference for valuation.

According to Consensys’ financing history, the author believes that MetaMask’s valuation is at least$3 billionabove.

Valuation results list

In order to present the above valuation logic more clearly, we summarize it as follows:

Based on the above valuation methods, we believe that the complete dilution valuation (FDV) of MetaMask has a high probability of falling into$1.5 billion to $5 billionwithin the range.

Eco-Flywheel: How $MASK becomes the growth engine of ConsenSys

To be evaluated accurately$MASKThe value of the parent company ConsenSys must be placed in the grand ecological map built by its parent company.As a blockchain software giant that builds tools and infrastructure around Ethereum, ConsenSys’ product matrix has covered the full stack from the user side (MetaMask), the developer side (Infura, Truffle) to the protocol bottom layer (Linea).The $MASK token will become the core value carrier that connects this huge empire and drives a powerful ecological flywheel.

Symbiosis between $MASK and Linea

LineaIt is the zkEVM Layer 2 network created by ConsenSys, aiming to provide Ethereum with a lower cost, higher efficiency and fully EVM-compatible expansion solution.

A deep symbiotic relationship will be formed between $MASK and Linea.As the first portal for Web3 with tens of millions of users, MetaMask can seamlessly guide massive users and funds to the Linea network with the lowest cost and the smoothest experience, which is a huge advantage that no other L2 network can match.

At the same time, the $MASK token can be used as the “startup fuel” of the Linea ecosystem.By airdropping or rewarding users and developers who provide liquidity on Linea, trading or building applications, early participants can be quickly attracted and ignite the liquidity and activity of the ecosystem.

Although MASK’s airdrop standards have not been announced yet, many users believe thatHolding Linea tokens or interacting on Linea network may have a direct impact$MASKA short investment range.ConsenSys CEO Joe Lubin also hints at this in a post on September 11, 2025, saying: “Well,Just holding Linea will open up further rewards opportunities, mostly in other tokens; some from Consensys and some from protocols that we are aligned with.MetaMask and Linea are cooking somETHing together to make this happen. ……So if we notice, at some date in the future thatyou’ve held n LINEA tokens for m days, that just might lead to another token landing in your account. …” This provides strong evidence for community speculation.

Financial closed loop between $MASK, mUSD and MetaMask Card

ConsenSys is building a seamless payment closed loop from on-chain to off-chain through a combination of a series of financial products, and $MASK is the core incentive layer in this closed loop.

1. Deposit (On-ramp):Users can easily convert fiat currencies such as US dollars into mUSD through the built-in fiat currency channel of MetaMask.

2. On-chain Activity:Users use mUSD on Linea network for low-cost transactions and DeFi activities.In the process,Holding or pledging $MASK tokens can bring them transaction fees discounts or additional rewards.

3. Off-ramp:Users do not need to withdraw their assets to the bank, you can directly consume its mUSD balance on Linea network in the real world through the MetaMask Card, achieving seamless payments from Web3 to the real world.The cashback or reward received by consumption can be designed as $MASK tokens, which further inspires users to hold and use $MASK, thereby locking more value inside the ecosystem.

The road ahead is not smooth: $MASK’s hidden worries and market doubts

Although Joe Lubin’s latest statement is very positive, there is still pessimism in the market.On the forecast market Polymarket, the bullish probability of “Will MetaMask issue coins in 2025?”After the news was announced, it fell from 60% to 32%, reflecting the market’s lack of confidence in issuing coins within the year.This pessimism may stem from the following two aspects:

1. Narrative fatigue of “The Wolf is Coming”: Rumors about MetaMask issuance has lasted for several years, but the official has denied it many times before. For example, in March 2025, the official MetaMask account was still clarifying that there is no $MASK token.Although Lubin’s latest interviews have sent positive signals, the market may have become tired and suspicious of these repetitive “coming” remarks.

2. Concerns about fairness of airdrops: Many users pointed out that its parent company ConsenSys had serious problems in the previous Linea project airdrops, with a large number of real users being wrongly marked as witch accounts, while many batch-operated addresses received large amounts of airdrops, resulting in unfair distribution and market selling pressure.This has led to the community’s concern that MetaMask’s airdrop may repeat the same mistakes, resulting in the efforts of real users not being rewarded due, thus weakening market confidence.

Therefore, the design of this MetaMask airdrop is crucial, and it is necessary to avoid recreating the situation of Linea that makes real users feel disappointed.Otherwise, this airdrop will not only fail to establish a good reputation and gather users, but may instead drag down the synergistic effects of the entire ConsenSys ecosystem such as MetaMask, Linea, mUSD, and other ConsenSys, resulting in a negative result of 1+1<1.

Conclusion: Opening a new chapter in wallet competition

MetaMask issuing coins is an inevitable choice under fierce competition, and it is also a carefully planned strategic upgrade.

From a valuation perspective, with its strong fundamentals and grand ecological narrative,The full dilution valuation (FDV) of $MASK reaches the billions of dollars level is a high probability event, and it is expected to have a higher impact.

From a product perspective, MetaMask tokens have pushed the wallet to a new height of the “self-built financial ecosystem”: users, assets, and services will form a closed loop under the connection of tokens, and the wallet will be upgraded from a tool to a platform.From a competitive perspective, this move is bound to change the industry’s power balance, forcing other players to adjust their strategies, and ultimately accelerate the evolution of the entire track.