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Source: Messari; Compiled by: Bitcoin Vision
Kalshi’s recent growth has been dramatic and well-documented.In the past six months, itsMonthly nominal trading volume increased 775%, from $664.4 million in May to $5.81 billion in November.During the same period,Open interest (OI) increased 266% from $91.6 million on May 31 to $335.3 million on November 30.
Kalshi didn’t surpass Polymarket in weekly trading volume until August, but has led the way ever since.inKalshi has topped the list for 12 of the past 14 weeks.This string of leads is tied to one key factor: On August 19, Kalshi partnered with Robinhood to allow users to trade NFL and college football results directly through the Robinhood Prediction Market Center.
This collaboration achieved breakthroughs in two key aspects.First, it increases engagement for non-cryptocurrency users, allowing them to trade prediction markets directly from their Robinhood account without any on-chain experience.Second, it provided a legal and regulated way for US users to trade sports results through prediction markets, something Polymarket did not offer at the time.
However, the more important changes occurred underneath.The surge in trading volume is not driven in part by sporting events, but almost entirely.November,Kalshi 90.5% ($5.23 billion) of trading volumefrom the sports market.Open interest (OI) also shows the same trend: as ofNovember 30,44.6% ($149.4 million) OIfrom sports market, making it the sector with the highest proportion of the two indicators on the platform.
This is not inherently good or bad.The sports market has long been deeply integrated into American culture, and Kalshi also earns commissions from market orders, regardless of the market sector.But sports trading is seasonal, and the biggest driver of all — American football — has the shortest season.Kalshi’s explosive growth comes at the height of football season, which begs the question: Can it maintain that momentum once the season is over?
The team has begun branching out beyond the rugby field.
On October 17, Robinhood expanded the product range of Kalshi prediction markets to cover political and macroeconomic markets such as tariffs, Federal Reserve policy, spending cuts, etc.
On December 3, CNN announced a partnership with Kalshi to integrate prediction markets into its newsroom;
Subsequently, CNBC issued a similar announcement on December 4.
These are the right moves.They broaden the range of non-sports prediction markets in which users can participate and increase exposure in mainstream media channels.CNN and CNBC, in particular, have allowed Kalshi to reach audiences who may have never been exposed to prediction markets before.But so far, sports have dominated.Whether this changes in 2026 depends on whether users can bring the same volume of transactions to these new markets as they do in the football market.
Kalshi products are scaling up.But the next step is not just to continue growing, but to diversify the industry.
