jakiro
Source: TAXDAO
2024 is a busy year.Cryptocurrencies are recovering. Last year, Sam Bankman-Fric was convicted and pleaded guilty of Zhao Changpeng. The spot Bitcoin Exchange’s listing fund may be approved and the market generally rose, which will make many people hope for the future of this industry.But legislators and regulators are unlikely to spend less time on cryptocurrencies.
Nikhilesh de: Tired people cannot rest.Although many things happened in 2023, including the entire criminal trial, it is expected to be more busy next year.I am interested in the five main events or activities that may occur in 2024: court cases, elections, regulatory agencies, legislation, and wider encryption markets:
1 court case
Obviously, the US Securities and Exchange Commission has spent a very active year, and has filed a lawsuit against Coinbase, Kraken and Binance/Binance.us in the past 12 months (actually over the past 7 months).Although the regulatory agency shows to the Ripple case that these cases may take a while to solve it, we will still begin to understand how the courts view the arguments put forward.
The role of the commodity futures trading committee is also worthy of attention next year.The chairman of the committee, Rostin Behnam, stated in many public places that he was proud of the many law enforcement operations taken by his institution, and the law enforcement efforts will not weaken next year.
In addition, there are national security and criminal cases.The United States appeals Avi Eisenberg, Roman Storm, Alex Mashinsky, Changpeng Zhao, and even Samuel Bankman-Fric (second instance) will see that the federal prosecutor has raised some interesting legal issues to the encryption industry.
Both SBF and Zhao Changpeng will hold a criminal hearing certificate in the first half of next year.As the former CEO of Binance, Zhao Changpeng acknowledged a charges that violated the Bank’s Secret Law and would be sentenced in late February 2024. It is expected that the sentence is about 10 to 18 months.
Of course, SBF will face longer sentences after the jury was convicted for seven different crimes in early November.He also faces potential second trials.We may take a few months to know whether the Ministry of Justice intends to conduct a second trial. The second review is currently began in early March.If the prosecutor continues to advance, SBF’s sentencing in late March may be postponed.
Judging from the legal theory we will discuss, the Eisenberg and Storm case will be more interesting.
One year ago, Eisenberg was arrested and accused of manipulating goods and fraud, because the “trading strategy” he executed caused Mango Markets to lose $ 114 million, and his trial was currently set in April.
At the same time, Storm is facing the charges of conspiracy operation and remittance institutions, promoting money laundering and evasion of sanctions, which are related to the work of developers of TORNADO CASH as a cryptocurrency hybrid service.
The bankruptcy case is getting closer to solution. We will continue to pay attention to them to see what the former users of these companies will get back.
2 elections
Next year, the elections in the United States, the European Union, India, and Indonesia may still be Britain.Each election is very important -even if the winner does not have a clear position on the issue of cryptocurrencies, the heads of the department appointment and the laws they promoted will obviously have an impact on the cryptocurrency industry.
In the United States, we once again ushered in the elections of governments at all levels, from state and local affairs to the House of Representatives and the Senate, and the Presidential position of the United States.The campaign season has been carried out in full swing, but in the next few weeks, we will start seeing the gradually decreased by the number of candidates.
It is still unclear whether cryptocurrencies will really become a topic of American legislators, not just ordinary topics, but we will wait and see.
3 institutions and legislation
Although the stablecoin and the market structure bill have made more progress compared to previous legislation, Congress has not proposed any major encrypted legislation this year.We may see these bills next year and continue to be discussed.Of course, elections will be an important turning point.
The characters worthy of attention include Patrics Patrick Mchenry, a member of the House of Representatives, and no longer running for re -election; the female member of the Congress Maxine Waters (California Democrat), a financial service member of the House of Representatives; Senator Sherrod Brown (Ohio Democratic)The chairman of the Senate Banking Committee is running for re -election; Senator Tim Scott (South Carolina Republican), who has briefly caminated the president.
MChenry has told Politico that he intends to promote encrypted legislation during his last term.However, he doesn’t have much time, and Congress will pay more attention to elections and campaigns, instead of their job in Washington
Similarly, we will see if the federal regulatory agencies are involved in further rules and the proposed rules they will adopt.
4 The wider market
Of course, we cannot ignore such a fact, that is, the price rises, people are booking the paper application form (and some actual application forms), and there are many exciting things around.Whether this situation is different in the elastic platform or market structure, and whether people get better protection, avoiding billions of dollars in losses will affect how global regulatory agencies think of this industry.
5 Looking back in the past, looking forward to the future
At this time of last year, I predicted that the problems about user data on the bankruptcy platform will get more attention; the SEC will take more action, but my expectations for legislation are not high, and the regulatory agency will be on 2022 in 2022The collapse responded.I think some of the predictions are quite correct: the US Securities and Exchange Commission has sued a number of exchanges, and the legislative has made progress in the committee, but has not yet been approved by any major institution in Congress.I don’t think the time is enough to clearly see the regulatory agency’s response to the failure of FTX and other companies, but the legislators are obviously considering these issues.
Sandali Handagama (Europe, the Middle East and Africa): In the preview of 2023, I said that we will hear a lot of information about global specifications about cryptocurrencies.Now the regulatory agency is indeed coming, and it comes aggressively.
The Financial Stability Commission (FSB) released its long -awaited cryptocurrency policy recommendations.In another document of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), it also announced that it is not possible to completely ban cryptocurrencies.But this has not been transformed into a more loose rule in the industry. Some of the previous champions in the industry have been caught up by law this year.
For example, cryptocurrency theoretical sub -sets -stablecoin -stabilization currency -is being severely carried out globally.The International Securities Regulatory Agency (iOSCO) rejected the industry’s request for stable coins to obtain special treatment requests in its policy recommendations.BCBS follows closely, and plans to tighten the requirements for stable currency to make it qualified to become a more secure asset for bank risk exposure.Next year we will see more adjustments or new standards of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins.
If 2023 is the year of cryptocurrency supervision, some of the rules will be implemented in 2024.The EU’s milestone MICA will take effect in December next year after the final finalization of this year.In 2024, corporate and EU member states will compete for MICA.As my former colleague Jack Schickler predicts, the company has been playing the “House House” game and trying to choose the most suitable EU countries in order to settle in time before the prescribed effectiveness.
I will also pay attention to the EU Parliament election in 2024.Although Mica has passed, there are many related frameworks being formulated, including one framework for the Yuan universe and the other for digital euro.
We will better understand the 2023 new regulatory system of cryptocurrency centers such as Dubai and Hong Kong, and we also look forward to more legislation in many jurisdictions including Turkey and South Korea.
It can be said that when entering the new year and the arrival of the new bull market, regulators around the world try to ensure that cryptocurrencies can be better told.But my most confident prediction is that the central banks and standard makers of various countries to persuade the public to believe that the central bank’s digital currency (CBDC) will continue to be more suitable for payment than private cryptocurrencies.
Jesse Hamilton (USA): From the perspective of Washington Special Economic Zone, my predictions on cryptocurrencies in 2024 will be completely unable to satisfy those who are eagerly waiting for progress.
The best expectations of the industry are to get some solution in court conflict with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), although the agency may crack down on the industry through targeted new policies.With the House of Representatives through some digital asset supervision measures, we are also very likely to see the surge in cryptocurrency legislation and a new high water level in 2024.
However, please treat my predictions this year carefully, because last year I said that whether cryptocurrencies can be a wide and universal trading asset in the United States will be concluded in 2023.In fact, except for federal judges pointed out in multiple cases that the US Securities and Exchange Commission is not always correct and did not make any decisions.
Although I predict that Congress may take several months to “find the common point of cryptocurrency”, the Senate has never found this common point.The prediction of 2023 is best to write like this: It is expected that policy chaos, legal conflicts, large -scale law enforcement actions, and a small number of legislative progress will occur.
Although Patrick Mchenry, chairman of the House of Representatives, may find a way to lay the foundation for his encrypted heritage by winning the House of Representatives through the supervision of cryptocurrencies, the Senate has been reluctant to promote the digital asset bill in the cryptocurrency field.Anyone who can insight into the heart of the Senate of the Senate’s Banking Committee Sherrod Brown (Ohio Democrat) and understand his cryptocurrency intent, please tell me.
Although debates such as the central bank’s digital currency (CBDC) continue, the most influential policy measures of the US government may be the true rules of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the IRS.Special supervision of all aspects of the industry.If these measures can be introduced as scheduled, more than one of them will cause devastating blows to decentralized finance (DEFI).
As the 2024 approaches, the industry discovers that the possibility of paying attention to the spot Bitcoin ETF has become more pleasant.However, according to its agenda, the US Securities and Exchange Commission has formulated a number of loose encryption rules in April. One of them will expand the definition of the exchange, incorporate the encryption platform intoKeep the “qualified custodian”.SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said this is not the current industry exchange scope.(Although these rules may eventually be questioned in court like all other rules.)
Conclusion is that if you like 2023, you may like 2024.
Amitoj Singh (India): India will hold elections next year. According to the current state -elected trend and public opinion survey, by June 2024, Modi will once again serve as Indian Prime Minister and start the third term.At that time, the same policy represented by his party and Indian People’s Party may be retained.This means that India’s controversial and rigid cryptocurrency tax policy may not change in 2024.The research of a think tank supports tax cuts -30% tax on cryptocurrency profits, and levy 1% of the source deduction tax (TDS) for all transactions.The encryption industry also advocates changes.But the Modi government did not say any signs of wanting to change this policy.As for the legislative bill of cryptocurrency or web3, Jayant Sinha, one of the senior legislators responsible for supervising the development of national financial development, has said that this will not happen soon, and it may not occur until mid -2025.Therefore, by 2024, Indian cryptocurrency enthusiasts may not have much hope for reducing tax policies, but they will pay attention to incorporating the web3 and blockchain industries into the country to further promote the future fragmentation measures.The Modi government has adopted encouraging measures in this field, and has maintained a separate strict policy on crypto assets.It is necessary to pay close attention to the two separate budget reports of the Indian Parliament.Whether it will be a priority of its domestic legislation.As in 2022, I paid close attention to the Budget introduction of the Modi government in 2023 and its work in G20.I also pay attention to whether the central bank’s hope of launching a comprehensive central bank’s digital currency (CBDC) can be realized.Of course not realized.However, wholesale and retail pilots have achieved gratifying results and progress, including concerns about privacy, which may be the focus of 2024.
Camomile Shumba (UK): I said last year that the British government needs to clearly explain how to supervise cryptocurrencies.Now a year has passed, and I can say that the government’s vision of this emerging industry has become clearer.
Many legislations have passed, which means that Britain is promoting its plan to become a cryptocurrency center -according to the British government, this desire and supervision are proceed together and complement each other.
The “Financial Services and Market Act” (FSMA) gives regulatory agencies to greater power on the cryptocurrency industry, and passed a criminal bill in June, which will help law enforcement agencies to detained cryptocurrencies.
FCA implements cryptocurrency promotion rules, which means that without the approval of FCA, overseas companies cannot contact British customers, which may cause cryptocurrency companies to leave the country.
Because FCA tends to be strictly managed, Britain will continue to work hard to manage its ambitions of cryptocurrency centers.In addition, Britain adopts a phased method to handle one aspect of cryptocurrency at one time, which means that before the issuance of the regulations, different aspects of the cryptocurrency market will be in a state of unreasonable state.
Because elections may be held next year, the Labor Party is a popular candidate. Another problem that everyone is talking about is that if the Labor Party takes over, what will they change?
Elizabeth Napolitano (United States): The cryptocurrency industry is about to usher in a busy year (and more bright).Approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF (spot Bitcoin ETF has been approved -translator’s note) may promote institutional investors to invest large funds into the field of digital assets.News about approval may also stimulate the public’s interest in virtual tokens and further push them from the edge of financial to the center stage.
On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, 2024 will also be an exciting year for cryptocurrencies.At the end of 2024, we will eventually see that the EU’s cryptocurrency supervision framework Mica takes effect.The legislation is actually banned from algorithm stable coins (for example: DAI). These stable coins are usually used as mortgages for the decentralized exchange (DEX) lending of the Curve Finance and Uniswap.This aspect of this framework may have a long -term impact on the development of decentralized finance (DEFI) of 27 EU member states, hindering that Europeans participate in the rich but dangerous field of the cryptocurrency industry.
