jakiro
Part.1 insight
Does the predictive market need web3?
Author: SID, iosg Ventures
Life cycle of betting
InvestOpeDia pointed out: “Prediction that the market is a market where people can trade contracts based on future unknown events.” In essence, it is a betting/gambling market.In order to better understand the betting market, let us break down a life cycle of betting:
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belief
During the belief stage, a prediction is just a point of view.When a person turns his views into a gambling of funds, he can get a return when the result supports that belief.
Belief is formed through the interaction of complex factors such as cognitive, social, emotion, and environment.The point of view can be generated by real -time beliefs or thought -provoking thoughts, and because there is no money loss for those who express their opinions, the viewpoints give more free.
Bet
There are two cases of betting:
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Want to profit from your beliefs
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There is a result that has nothing to do with faith but very attractive
The first bet may come from the calculated point of view, and the second is from the attitude of “small gambling”.
In order to make any contract success, one party and the opponent need
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If you bet at $ 50 Chelsea to win a game, you need to (maybe many people) are willing to invest a total of 50 US dollars to bet on the Chelsea team (assuming the odds of 50/50)
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Making margin transactions on GMX, traders open a multi -header, and GLP is the opposite side
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Casino games such as round gambling and 21 o’clock need a “dealer” as the opposition
Sometimes, in order to attract the participation of the opposite side, we need to take some incentives, because the result of an event is not always possible.These incentive methods can include various forms, such as bond curves in AMM (Automated Market Maker), and even the funding rates in perpetual/deposit trading platforms.
The structured design of market forecast becomes more complicated when focusing on the results of specific types.As an example, sports betting requires unique odds settings, because almost no two events will have almost the same results.In addition, each major event (such as the result of the league champion) may involve many small events (the results of each league), which further increases complexity.
In the prediction incident, the contract is also required.What if your opponent refuses to pay?This is why derivatives are essentially enforced by law.On the blockchain, the contract can be executed without trust.
Therefore, in order to bet, you need:
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(Or no occur) incident, and publishedEvent/gameContract
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Ensure enough participants to have opinions on these events (the needs of the manufacturer, Maker Demand: Market participants provide market orders)
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Ensure that these participants have opponents (the needs of the recipient, TAKER DEMAND: market participants execute existing orders in the market)
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Ensure settlement
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Make sure there is no market manipulation
result
“Gambling games promote ‘control hallucinations’: that is, gamblers believe that they can apply skills to the results defined by opportunities.” -Dr. Luke Clark
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As a result, the end of the event bet.Once the results are determined, the bet is completed.
Does the predictive market need web3?
Let’s take a look at the necessity of web3 according to the standards for creating the gambling market mentioned above:
Event/game creation
Except for the release of incidents that do not require permission, there are no clear examples of blockchain here.Permissionless posting is a defect, not feature, because it will create a high redundant for the same event, thereby worsening the experience of betters.The creation of bets can be based on a event, or you can create games like this chain or twenty -one.(No one can publish means that anyone can publish information or transactions without a centralized review)
Incidents can also be discovered by price.We have seen the prediction market of tokens that have not yet been released on AEVO, which provides a good indicator for the market’s view of token prices.
ParCL is also creating a predicted market for better real estate prices.It provides a rough number of their house value, and also provides a budget range for buyers who plan to buy real estate in a city.
The use case of price discovery is also a function of liquidity in event contracts. This is why the next section is important.
Maker needs
The blockchain cannot control the needs of the manufacturer, and it is completely driven by offline behavior such as marketing or games built in the product.
Those companies that are discovered for prices must strive to generate as much manufacturer trading volume as much as possible to obtain the most accurate price of specific assets.
Trading opponent
Now we enter an interesting topic.You can stimulate the opponent to gamble by attracting the odds, especially when the event results are almost determined.In the picture below, it can be seen that due to the huge and not matching in the PolyMarket order book, it may win $ 200 with a $ 0.50 bet.
One way is like Augur Turbo. Each market is an independent market and runs on Balancer AMMS.The LPS (liquidity provider) here is a transaction opponent in different markets.Although this structure is well avoided by the calculation (or acquisition) of excessive dependence, it makes the experience of publishing prediction events worse.
For a price of AEVO, if there is no liquidity, the platform sometimes has to act as a trading opponent.This is not ideal, especially when the bottom of the market is unknown.
Another method is to create a transaction opponent LP pool like “THE HOUSE”.Just as Azuro and Winr do.There is a liquidity pool that will be a trading opponent as a bet.PARCL has a USDC liquidity pool, a trading opponent who has long -term or short real estate prices in different cities.
Both protocols have proved their effectiveness:
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The income generated by LPS on Polygon (Source: DUNE)
WinR’s LP token (WLP) has increased from $ 1 to about $ 1.27 (if LP started around July 1, 2023, 27%of the return)
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(Source: dune)
These models show some good product market fit. Among them, the front end only needs to pay attention to bets on the platform, without having to manage the order book or make AMM weighing.
You can treat these models as Uniswap V4, and different front -end use of underlying liquidity (similar to hooks).
The WINR protocol has one casino betting front end and another margin trading protocol with up to 1,000 times leveraged, which ensures that the utilization rate of Gaochi is very dangerous to the pool.
Ensure settlement
Once the incident is completed, the bet is required to be settled.In the AMM structure, everything is on the chain and settled on the contract.For the Polymarket order book model, the order book is maintained under the chain.If necessary, PolyMarket can prevent withdrawal.For the front end of the Azuro similar to BOOKMAKER.XYZ, no deposit is required.Each bet is regarded as an independent transaction.The only linked component is the calculation and data source of the odds.
Make sure no manipulation
If there is a centralized data provider and this data source is managed by the provider, this may adversely affects the results of the market maker (MAKER) and Taker.This is one of the main reasons for most Web3 forecast markets to use the prediction machine system like ChainLink.Use the prediction opportunity to weigh between delay and data integrity.When selecting the prophet machine, the platform can make a choice between the first and third -party prophecy machines, which involves delayed trade -offs.Whether there is a delay in rapid development is a very important influencing factor.
In casino games, whether the randomness is complete is crucial, and its fairness cannot be affected by its source.
ChainLink and other prophecy planes such as Supra and Pyth minimize the possibility of manipulation by aggregating, but in the vast market, the authenticity and reliability of data sources are still a problem.These prediction machine systems strive to provide reliability by aggregating multiple data sources and reduce the risk of a single failure to protect the market from the impact of improper control.Nevertheless, ensuring the authenticity of the data source and preventing manipulation are still a continuous challenge in the market.
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Existing applications of success and failure
When we observe the crypto market and forecasting market, the more successful examples are that cryptocurrencies are used as assets that are used for bets such as Stake.com and Rollbit.
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(Blue numbers are predicted numbers)
Although applications such as Polymarket have achieved a certain success, it is not a platform that can maintain consistent trading volume, because there is a huge gap between the event environment and the platform.
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Source: dune
Cryptocurrency and predicting market product market fit (PMF) has initially appeared in the “House” pool system like Azuro and Winr.An obvious application scenario is that the new front end of a specific type of prediction market needs to only pay attention to the demand side.They can use systems like Azuro and Winr, and these systems in turn provide first-class yields for stable currency holders (calculated at the current speed, the annualized return rate is 40-60%).
In most countries, the supervision of gambling applications and online casinos is very strict.A protocols like Azuro and Winr may also face lower regulatory pressures than companies like Rollbit.
How much participation is provided in the front end, and how much participation in the encryption market is.At present, there is no need for an encrypted forecast market without permission and no trust.
We look forward to seeing the success of applications like PARCL, which brings transparency to a fairly non -flowing asset category.From the basic principles, it seems to have the correct structure to achieve its price discovery goals.
The main application scenarios of Web3 include the structure of the opposite pool structure that supports the construction of various predicted markets, and the successful application of the predicted market to a better price discovery.
As the market value of cryptocurrencies increases, and more and more people have disposable capital on the chain, predict the market industry may be favorable or at least useful.
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Lexal trading protocol partics completes seed wheel financing, Polychain Capital led
* DEFI
Lexal transaction protocol partication completes seed wheel financing, Polychain Capital led, Nascent, Inflection, NEON DAO, Naven Jain, Arthur Hayes, DCF God, SAM Williams, Kalos, Richard MA, Palmer,,, VXCOZY and others participated in the investment, and the specific financing amount was not disclosedEssence
3A game platform Skyark ChronicleS completed $ 15 million in financing, Binance Labs led the investment
* Game
3A game platform Skyark ChronicleS has completed $ 15 million in financing, led by Binance Labs, Vividthree, Guildfi, Jambo, BreederDao and Layerzero CEO Bryan Pellegrino, Tangent Ventures co -founder Wangarian and Story Protocol CEO S.Y. Lee and others participated in the investment.
RWA Commercial Loan Agreement KASU completes 3 million US dollars of seed round financing, Woodstock and other led investment
* RWA
RWA Commercial Loan Agreement, Kasu, announced the completion of 3 million US dollars of seed wheel financing, WoodStock, Morningstar Ventures and Faculty Group, Cypher Capital, MatterBlock, Andromeda Capital , ASTEROID Capital and Optic Capital.The funds raised will be used to promote the Kasu innovation platform. The platform is committed to redefining RWA lending standards, optimizing the cash flow of enterprises, to reduce credit risk, and provide risk management and benefits.
Decentalized hacker pine platform Bewater completed a new round of financing, Okx Ventures led
* Ecosystem
The decentralized hacker pine platform and the global open source developer organization Bewater completed a new round of financing. The specific amount has not yet been disclosed, and OKX Ventures led.
Bitcoin Layer 2 network Bitfinity completes US $ 7 million token financing for $ 130 million
* BTC Layer2
Bitcoin Layer 2 network Bitfinity has completed $ 7 million in tokens financing for $ 130 million, including the seed round financing of about $ 1 million in 2021 and a $ 6 million growth round financing in June last year.Bitfinity is currently in the test network stage and plans to start the main network later or early February this month.Bitfinity hopes that the team will develop the team to about 25 in the next few months after the main network will start and establish and develop its ecosystem.
Gaming NFTFI and SocialFi platform EEESEE completed $ 2.85 million in financing
* Game
Gaming NFTFI and SocialFi platform EEESEE announced the completion of $ 2.85 million in financing, including $ 1.1 million seed round financing and $ 1.75 million private equity financing. Investors include Sevenx Ventures, Maven Capital, Metabros, Contango Digital Assets, and BA. SementDao et al.EEESEE original currency ESE is planned to be launched in the first quarter.
Quora’s investment in A16Z 75 million US dollars will accelerate its AI chat platform POE
* AI
Adam D’Gelo, CEO of Quora, an online question and answer website, announced the completion of US $ 75 million in financing, led by Andreessen Horowitz (A16Z).This round of financing funds will be mainly used to accelerate the development of its AI chat platform POE. It is expected that most of the funds will be paid to the founder of the BOT on the platform through its founder’s realization plan.
Umoja completes $ 2 million in financing
* DEFI
The decentralized risk hedging strategy management company of Robby Greenfield, the former social influence director of Consensys, completed 2 million US dollars financing, Quantstamp, Blockchain Founders Fund, Orange Dao, PSALINARD, Blizzard (Avalanc (Avalanc HE) Wait for the investment.
Solana Ecological DEFI products SAROS has completed $ 3.75 million private equity financing
* DEFI
Solana Ecological DEFI products SAROS has completed US $ 3.75 million private equity financing. Solana Ventures, Hashed, Spartan, Arche Fund, GBV, Assym, IF, Genblock, K300, Cryptomind, Kyros and Evernew and other participation.This round of financing was completed by the end of 2022, and the funds raised were used to support its expansion plan and the development of SAROS super applications.
Part.3 IOSG post -investment project progress progress
Starknet: The main network will be upgraded to V0.13.0 on January 10th. After completion
* Zk layer2
StarkNet tweeted that it was planned to upgrade the StarkNet main network to V0.13.0 on January 10, January 10, Beijing time, and the full node needs to be upgraded after completion.To ensure that the whole node is consistent with the reduction of the cost, users should upgrade the version of the whole node to avoid errors.Among them, the entire node of Pathfinder should be upgraded to V0.10.3 after the main network is upgraded, and the full node of Juno should be upgraded to V0.9.1.
ZKSYNC launched Boojum update
* Zk rollup
Upgrade: ZKSYNC Era is transitioning to a new Boojum proof system without re -start.
Performance: Boojum shows the world’s first -time proof of performance, perfectly combined with the sequencer of ZKSYNC ERA, and the latter can handle more than 100 TPS.
Decentralization: Boojum proofer only needs 16 GB of RAM, which provides the possibility of decentralization for the future large -scale proofer.Ready: Shadow proves that it has been launched on mainnet!
The cross -chain bridge Stargate community has adopted a proposal about integrating Near voting
* Crosschain
According to the Snapshot voting page, the cross -chain bridge Stargate community has passed the “integrated STARGATE and Near” by Aurora, supporting cross -chain native USDC between Near and ETH, Arbitrum, Optimism, Polygon and BNB Chain.Near became the first non -EVM chain integrated by Stargate Finance.
Chain Tour Illuvium Update 2024 Roadmap: Strive to launch a public beta version of Q1, or it may be postponed to the beginning of Q2
* Game
Chain Tour Illuvium updates the roadmap in 2024, where the launch of the test network is the primary goal.The team is integrating blockchain technology, finally determining IMX passports, and completing FUEL exchange.The goal is to launch a version of the Open Beta in the first quarter of 2024, but because it is committed to quality and thorough testing, it may be extended to the beginning of the second quarter.Regarding parallel progress, Overworkd, Arena and Zero teams will continue to develop new features, which is parallel to the launch of the test network to ensure that there is no delay.
EIGENLAYER will introduce three new LS
* LSD
Eigenlayer Eigenlayer will introduce three new liquidity pledged tokens (LST) at 04:00 on January 30th, respectively, with FRAX Ether (SFRXETH), Mantle Staked Ether (METH) and LIquid Collection Ether (LSETH.At that time, EIGENLAYER will be reopened to allow re -pledge with the existing limit of each LST 200,000 ETH.
The 125th Consensus Meeting of Ethereum Core Developers: Discuss some of EIP into Electra upgrade
* Developer
The 125th Consensus Meeting (ACDC) of Ethereum Core Developer has ended.Whether -6465, EIP-6466, EIP-6914, EIP-7549, etc. should be included in the Electra upgrade.
Layer1 public chain BERAChain open test network artio, the main network is expected to launch in the second quarter
* Layer1
Layer1 public chain BERAChain opens the public test network “Artio”. BERACHAIN is a project -driven project based on the COSMOS ecosystem. It uses the POL (Proof of liquidity) mechanism. The main network is expected to be launched in the second quarter.BERACHAIN’s three -generation currency system: users provide liquidity to earn liquidity to earn the pledged token BGT by protocol (such as native DEX or stable coin borrowing platform).Native GAS token BERA.Verifications guided the pledge reward back to the BERAChain ecosystem through a variety of supporting protocols to maintain the liquidity of the network.Users who entrust BGT tokens to verifications can earn BERAChain’s native stable currency Honey from the network protocol.
Orbiter Finance: This year will launch tokens and gradually announce the token economy and distribution plan
* Layer2
Layer2 cross -Rollup Bridge ORBITER Finance issued that this year will launch its native token and gradually announce the token economy and distribution plans to ensure that the process is fair.The O-POINTS plan will play an important role in formulating the rules of airdrops.
Game L3 solution XAI main network has been launched on Arbitrum
* Game
Arbitrum Ecological Game Layer3 solution XAI posting states that the main network has been launched on Arbitrum.
