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Source: Metaverse Sun Explosion
These two things related to the US presidential election are becoming the rebound catalysts for the crypto asset market. Bitcoin once broke out of decline, breaking through the highest level of $67,000, with an increase of more than 10% in a week.Meme coins about the two are emerging one after another.
Donald Trump, the candidate who calls himself “crypto president”, has obtained campaign funds in the form of crypto assets and gained support from his assassination and his opponent’s withdrawal.His canvassing trends have now become the “barometer” of the crypto asset market.Trump also struck while the iron was hot, trying to pull votes from the crypto circle.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump will give a speech at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference at the end of July and will hold a fundraising event before that.Satori Research CEO Teong Hng predicts that Bitcoin may return to all-time highs soon, “a strong rebound will occur at the end of the year, and Trump’s election will mark it.”
However, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin sang a counter-tweet at this time. He posted on July 18 against making a political voting choice based on “whether to support cryptocurrency”, because candidates are now crypto-friendly, which does not mean fiveWill still do this after the New Year.
How long can the “Trump Transaction” of crypto assets last?
01Trump increases his cryptocurrency-friendly position
On July 21, Biden announced that he would no longer seek re-election and withdraw from the presidential election.Soon, the voices supporting Trump were unprecedentedly high, and coupled with the highlight image brought by the previous assassination, Trump’s probability of winning the election increased greatly.Data from the decentralized forecasting platform Polymarket shows that Republican candidate Trump won the 2024 election with a support rate of 61%, far exceeding Kamala Harris (37%), which has the second-ranked approval rating.
Investors on Wall Street believe that Trump is likely to take the presidency again.Industry sectors that may benefit from Trump’s policies after his election, such as cryptocurrencies, fossil energy and banking, have all seen what is known as “Trump Transactions.”
The most noisy thing among them is the crypto asset industry. Not only is the recent trend of Bitcoin related to Trump’s election trend, but Trump’s trend has also attracted opinion leaders related to crypto assets to participate in public statements.and brings market linkage.
First, Bitcoin (BTC) rose sharply after Trump’s assassination, with a weekly increase of 10%, sweeping away the previous market haze; then, Tesla CEO Elon Mask, who once “shouted orders” on Dogecoin, also followed the encryptionThe community has replaced the headset that is consensus in the crypto circle, and celebrities in the circle such as Marc Andreessen, founder of a16z, a famous crypto asset venture capital firm, and Ryan Selkis, founder of Messari, have also replaced the avatar to express their special appearance.Trump’s support for his crypto-friendly attitude;
DMAGA, a token related to the Meme culture of “Laser Eye”, has increased by more than 50 times in a few hours, and its market value has exceeded US$60 million.
KOLs in the crypto asset industry replace laser eye avatar
How deep is Trump’s relationship with crypto assets?
A report from the Wall Street Journal citing the latest Federal Election Commission data shows that of the approximately $331 million raised by the Trump campaign last quarter, about $3 million is cryptocurrency, including BTC, ETH and dogs.currency.
Recently, Trump once again sent a signal to express his crypto-friendly stance. According to overseas media reports, he will give a speech at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference at the end of July and hold a fundraising event before that.
In addition, in an interview with Bloomberg, Trump also planned to release the fourth NFT series because the previous NFT series was “very successful” and sold out within a day. “I plan to release a new series because it is for many people.expect.”
The Trump campaign, which calls himself “crypto president”, has been deeply “bound” with the crypto asset market.Satori Research CEO Teong Hng pointed out that active trading in the over-the-counter options market predicts that Bitcoin may soon return to all-time highs, predicting “a strong rebound at the end of the year, with Trump’s victory marking it.”
FRNT Financial CEO Stephane Ouellette also made a similar view, saying that the growing possibility of Republican candidate Trump becoming president has driven higher Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency markets.This is because if the Trump administration is re-elected, it will create a more favorable regulatory environment for the cryptocurrency industry.
02Ethereum co-founder Vitalik sings the opposite tune
Now, whether Trump’s election can bring about another upward trend in the crypto market has become the focus of attention of the crypto community.However, the “opposite” appears in the warm support voice.
On July 18, Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum Network, posted a statement saying that he opposed making a political voting choice based on whether he supports cryptocurrency, because candidates are now crypto-friendly, which does not mean that they will remain the case in five years.
Vitalik opposes votes on whether to support cryptocurrency
Vitalik wrote in his article, “If you find a politician is crypto-friendly, one thing you can do is look at their opinion of the cryptocurrency itself five years ago.”
This is simply “connotation” of Trump five years ago, which is that he is the president of the United States, but has a denial view on crypto assets.
In 2019, Trump tweeted, “I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, they are not currencies whose values are highly volatile and based on air. Unregulated crypto assets can promote illegal behavior, including drug transactions.and other illegal activities.”
In 2021, Trump said in an interview with Fox Business Channel that Bitcoin is a scam against the US dollar, and it would not be surprising that it fell below $6,000.
As a result, Trump slapped himself in the face five years later, posing a crypto-friendly attitude, and criticized the Biden administration for its tough stance on crypto assets.
Adam Cochran, a partner at Cinneamhain Ventures, also believes that Trump’s commitment to win votes is unreliable. He pointed out that “Trump has a decades-long history of reselling” and “selling for his own benefit.The past of others.Analysis from fact-checking website PolitiFact said that more than half of Trump’s 102 promises during the 2016 presidential campaign have been violated by him.
Some views believe that even if Trump is re-elected and fulfills his promise, the crypto asset market has become increasingly related to the U.S. stock market, which means that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy will affect the market.So, how much role can Trump’s election as US president play in the Fed’s decision-making?
In July this year, on the eve of the first debate in the election, Trump stated in an interview with the media that he would not allow Powell to serve as chairman of the Federal Reserve for the third time, but would allow him to complete his second term.At the same time, he said that the Fed should avoid a rate cut before the November election to avoid boosting the economy during Biden’s term.
The Republican Party, represented by Trump, prefers loose financial policies.During his tenure, Trump criticized the Federal Reserve many times, demanding that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stop hikes and cut interest rates immediately.Recently during the campaign, Trump also showed his economic views, emphasizing that Trump’s economics = low interest rates + low tax rates.
In fact, the Federal Reserve is an independent entity in the US government system, and its independence emphasizes not being influenced by politics.The U.S. president has no authority to appoint or fire the Federal Reserve chairman, and in addition, government policy depends largely on Congress.
According to Wolfe Research, the biggest policy changes in the past 15 years have occurred when the Senate and the White House are controlled by the same party.If Republicans control both houses, Democrats can set “roadblocks” in Trump’s agenda.
How long will Trump’s “binding” with cryptocurrencies last?In the short term, before the results of the US election were released in November, Trump’s position, behavior and voter support rating will still have an impact on the crypto asset market. After the election’s “boots” are landed, the “Trump deal” is likely to be the case.Will be weaker.
