jakiro
Author: Yue Xiaoyu; Source: X, @yuexiaoyu111.
HashKey officially launched its IPO on December 9th, much earlier than expected.
Many people are also waiting to see whether they want to participate in the innovation of HashKey, so how much HashKey is worth is a question that many people are very concerned about.
This article uses the market value benchmarking method to systematically evaluate.
1️⃣ First clarify the positioning of HashKey
If you want to evaluate how much HashKey is worth, you must first understand what HashKey is so that you can find a suitable benchmarking reference.
First of all, HashKey targets Coinbase, the first compliance exchange in the United States, so Coinbase is actually the best reference.
But looking deeper, HashKey is not just an exchange, but a full-stack giant group with global layout, with multiple business lines.:
(1) HashKey Exchange exchange system: three-station layout, including Hong Kong station, global station, and Middle East station, all of which are compliant exchanges.
(2) HashKey OTC: Institutional-level compliant deposits and withdrawals + capital solutions. HashKey OTC can do compliant withdrawals that offshore exchanges cannot do.
(3) HashKey Chain: Ethereum Layer 2, focusing on institutional DeFi, RWA, and cross-border payments. It can be said to be an institutional-level public chain.
(4) HashKey CaaS: It has three core components, Architect (tokenization service), Enhancer (revenue service), and Guardian (security service). Many traditional institutions are already using HashKey’s blockchain services.
(5) HashKey Capital: Asia’s leading crypto investment and asset management platform. It was the first to invest in Ethereum. Its products cover primary market + secondary market + ETF.
So we can see that HashKey is the Coinbase of the East, but it surpasses Coinbase, covers a more comprehensive business, and is very advanced in various business fields.
HashKey has occupied an important ecological niche in Hong Kong and even the entire Chinese world. It can capture industry development dividends and policy support dividends. Its future development ceiling is very high.
2️⃣ Benchmark companies on the same track
According to HashKey’s prospectus, let’s first look at a few key data:
Offer price: HKD 5.950~6.950
Number of shares issued: 241 million shares
The newly issued 241 million shares account for approximately 8.7%-10% of the total share capital, and the total share capital is approximately 2.765 billion shares.
Overall market capitalization: HK$16.453 billion to HK$19.218 billion
Based on the positioning analysis of HashKey, I selected the top ten exchanges in the world:
(1)Binance
Binance is the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, accounting for nearly half of the market share, so Binance is the absolute ceiling for exchanges.
The current market value of Binance’s platform currency $BNB is US$120 billion. If the total market value of HashKey is the same, the price of HashKey will be US$44.36.
(2) Coinbase
Coinbase has been listed on Nasdaq and is the first compliant exchange in the United States and the ceiling of global compliant exchanges.
As HashKey is the first compliant exchange in Hong Kong, Coinbase is a very good reference for HashKey.
The current stock market value of Coinbase is US$72 billion. If HashKey’s total market value is the same, the HashKey price will be US$26.3.
(3) Kraken
Kraken is one of the oldest cryptocurrency exchanges in the United States and is preparing for an IPO.
Kraken’s latest valuation is currently US$20 billion. If HashKey’s total market value is the same, HashKey’s price will be US$7.23.
(4) Crypto.com
Crypto.com is a world-renowned cryptocurrency exchange, known for its sports sponsorship and rapid user growth, and its platform currency CRO is active.
The current FDV of Crypto.com’s platform currency $CRO is US$10.45 billion. If the total market value of HashKey is the same as it, the price of HashKey will be US$3.78.
(5)Upbit
Upbit is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in South Korea, accounting for more than 80% of the Korean market. It was acquired by Naver Financial and is a regional hegemon.
Upbit’s current acquisition valuation is US$10.3 billion. If HashKey’s total market value is the same, HashKey’s price will be US$3.73.
(6) Bybit
Bybit is the world’s leading derivatives exchange, known for its high-leverage trading and user experience, and its platform currency MNT is growing rapidly.
The current FDV of Bybit’s platform currency $MNT is US$6.81 billion. If the total market value of HashKey is the same as it, the price of HashKey will be US$2.46.
(7)OKX
OKX can be said to be the second largest Chinese exchange in the world. Its Web3 business is its biggest advantage and it is also preparing to be listed in the United States recently.
The current market value of OKX’s platform currency $OKB is US$2.28 billion. If the total market value of HashKey is the same as it, the price of HashKey will be US$0.82.
(8)Bitget
The current FDV of Bitget’s platform currency $BGB is US$3.26 billion. If the total market value of HashKey is the same as it, the price of HashKey will be US$1.18.
(9)Gate
Gate is a very old cryptocurrency exchange with a wide variety of listed currencies and a large global user base.
The current FDV of Gate’s platform currency $GT is US$3.12 billion. If the total market value of HashKey is the same as it, the price of HashKey will be US$1.13.
(10)KuCoin
KuCoin is also a very old exchange, and its product positioning is similar to Gate, an altcoin paradise.
The current FDV of KuCoin’s platform currency $KCS is US$1.45 billion. If the total market value of HashKey is the same as it, the price of HashKey will be US$0.52.
3️⃣ To summarize
HashKey’s IPO price is US$0.76-0.89, the IPO valuation is HK$2.7-3.2 billion (about US$350 million), and the overall market value is US$2.1 billion-2.5 billion.
This pricing is significantly different from the top exchanges Binance/Coinbase. Binance/Coinbase can serve as the industry ceiling and the ceiling of the compliance exchange track respectively.
Compared with several regional hegemons such as Crypto.com/Upbit, it has greater upside potential.
The current issuance price of HashKey is close to that of OKX, Bitget, and Gate, and it belongs to the same echelon.
HashKey has a strong Hong Kong compliance advantage and occupies an absolute ecological niche. This is the deepest moat and the driving force for future growth.
After listing on December 17, we can take a look at the actual market pricing of HashKey. HashKey represents the ceiling of the Hong Kong blockchain industry.
Pricing HashKey is actually pricing the Hong Kong blockchain industry.
