jakiro
Author: ALI, former technical person in charge of Gridex; Translation: Bit Chain Vision Xiaozou
1Preface
In August last year, FRIND.TECH’s integration system came out. Nowadays, points have become the industry standards under the chain rewards (or tokens, XP, and other similar rewards) industry standards for early users to reward agreements.It can be said that the airdrop boom of this round of cycle has been opened, and a series of projects have released tokens in the past year.Like many encrypted booms, the airdrop “gold rush” in people’s eyes will eventually be like a bubble, beautiful but easy to pass.
Is the airdrop boom reaching the end?Or is it just a short -term midfielder?
2, The performance of 47 airdrop tokens
The airdrop tokens are notorious due to the price trend of “only falling”.As of August 25, 2024, I think that of the 47 airdrops that have been hyped most below, only 11 are higher than the TGE (tokens generation event), and the average return rate is 49.56%(excluding BONK).At the same time, the average decline in the 36 airdrop tokens that were lower than TGE was 62.15%.At present, the price of some tokens does have risen, from TGE to ATH average increase is 162.23%(excluding BONK).However, in these tokens, the average callback rate after ATH was 70.89%.Although the downward settlement of ATH is also a normal market situation, it is worrying that many tokens have shown such a significant decline in a few months.
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The trend is obvious. Except for some sectors (Meme and AI) that has been popular in this round of this cycle, since 2023, the trend of the airdrop token is basically free to fall (of course, some airdrops are between the two between the two.To.
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On average, only AI, MEME and modular air investment have actually risen after TGE, and other airdrops have fallen sharply.So far, MEME is the most powerful sector. The average increase has increased by 2300%since 2016, of which Bonk has the largest increase.In fact, in my opinion, it was Bonk who saved Solana (Soylana two years ago) from the desperate abyss after FTX.
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When the average return rate of airdrops is classified by an ecosystem, so far, only the price of the Solana airdrop token is higher than the TGE level, and the main force is BONK.The airdrop based on Ethereum is the worst performance, but the price trend of COSMOS -based airdrops is the most intense.Compared with TGE, the average ATH is as high as 201%, and the 850%increase in TIA, COSMOS -based airdrops swept the fourth quarter of 2023.The COSMOS airdrop opened a short pledge airdrop to earn more airdrops. This phenomenon soon disappeared. Except for DYM (61.1%decreased than TGE), there was no well -known airdrop after TIA.
Some people may say that the performance so far and the decline after ATH are due to the general performance of the cottage market, not because of airdrops.In comparison, only 47 tokens (half of which are MEME or AI sectors) are better than their ecological coins.
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The airdrop token TGE has so far been compared with its ecosystem token.The intercepted abnormal values are highlighted in red.Source: CoinMarketcap and Coingecko as of August 25, 2024.
Crypto Twitter attributes this epidemic symptoms to low -circulation and high FDV tokens -complaining that these tokens are just selling tools for venture capital, so they are almost designed to fall without rising.Although this view has a certain amount, especially considering that the utility of most tokens depends on the right to govern, and the value of governance is blurred, it seems that there is a deeper and more worrying issue.Projects that rely on usage, whether using TVL, transaction volume, or other indicators to measure, all depict a disturbing post -TGE picture.
3As well asL2
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The growth of the emerging L2 TVL is not impressive, and some even show the pure downward trajectory.Blast and ZKSYNC Era are the two most obvious examples -these two airdrops of the two -haired work room seem to lose their heat after TGE.Manta Pacific first continued to show its strength after TGE, but this can be attributed to their “New ParadigM” event. The event only supported Manta Pacific to the outdoor bridge on March 26, 2024. Since then, the chain TVL has dropped sharply sharply.At present, it has decreased by 94%than ATH.Similar stories may also occur on the Mode body. It retains 50%of the tokens of the first 2,000 wallets for 3 months. The unlocking conditions are that they will not connect to the outer bridge during this period.In addition, the relative advantage of MODE may be due to its second -season points plan, which is not available by Manta (although they do hold the “RestAKing ParadigM” activity), and the Mode is also included in the OPTIMISM’s Superfest activityEssenceTAIKO chose to implement TGE when the main network was released, which had a positive impact on TVL, but only $ 14 million -0.73%of its tokens TVL -Obviously, there was almost no attention in this field.
StarkNet’s TVL did not follow this trend, but it was obviously soaring after TGE.There is no doubt that such a performance is really surprising, but it is so disconnected from the market emotions and can’t help but doubt it.
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Can the last 8 users on Starknet really resurrected it with blood?Before the admirers of StarkNet were nailed to the cross, I wanted to say that DUNE’s data was inaccurate; DAU on June 4 was actually 212,000, a 94%decrease from ATH two months ago.The first thing to note is that StarkNet successfully raised $ 282.5 million with a valuation of $ 8 billion, which means that TVL is still 18%less than the funds raised.In contrast, BLAST only raised $ 20 million, while TVL was 190%higher than the fundraising amount, which is not amazing.In addition, it should be noted that Nostra and Ekubo (both airdrop performance of the two are disappointing) accounting for 85%of StarkNet tvl.
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Although it is unclear what it has promoted StarkNet TVL, there is a view that it is to see Nostra. The current market value of NSTR completely diluted is 6.3 million US dollars and the FDV/TVL ratio is 5%.
4,bridge
Let’s take a look at the daily transaction volume of Layerzero, and everything is clearer.
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After the first snapshot of ZRO airdrops on January 5, 2024, the daily trading pen plummeted 52%to about 45K, and the current level is 92%lower than the level on January 5, 2024, less than 7000.So far, Farmers and Sybils -no matter what you call them -it has always been driven by encryption, or at least it looks like that.Although Layerzero belongs to the “Old Old School” because it does not have a point plan, it always sends tokens, and users also take action accordingly to promote transactions as much as possible to maximize their airdrops.These transactions should be exaggerated indicators that Layerzero’s 120 million US dollars in Series B financing in April 2023.
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Comparing this performance with the airdrop before August 2023 (which can be said to belong to the previous cycle), the results show a very different picture (of course, what we talk about here is the performance of the project, not its tokens, not its tokensPerformance).In addition to launching TGE (because APT belongs to GAS payment tokens) when the main network is released), Optimism and Arbitrum have released the governance tokens a year after the release of the main network, and they have established a good foundation before.This is in sharp contrast to the more speculative market environment displayed in this round of cycle. The project will quickly track their main network and TGE in order to benefit.The L2 field is still in its infancy at this point -far from the L2 in this cycle.
5Where to go from the airdrop?
Take a look at the biggest airdrops in history (ranking according to the ATH value). At least 7 of them are unexpected surprises for those who have received them. This positive emotion is likely to cause the tokens to at TGE in TGEThe price rebounded recently.
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In the previous cycle, most airdrops were popular because they were considered free money.Yes, at the end of the cycle, the airdrop Farming, which the purpose of profit, has become more popular, but it is far from reaching the thinking share of this cycle.Although Friendtech’s integration system was exciting at first, a few months later, each project was waiting for the end of the bear market, so that they could release TGE to create their own points plans, making innovation a common talk.
Farming, the points of the season, requires more and more time and funds to weaken the glory of the airdrop.Now, airdrops are no longer “free money”, and people have to pay a real cost.Considering factors such as time, liquidity and costs, people’s understanding of the return on airdrops has become more and more awake. In recent days, almost all airdrops have fallen into the vortex of death after TGE.
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It’s time to let the points boom fade.If the project retreats to the value of the Farmer through the points and rankings, and the overall market turns to the bullish, Farmer may suffer again.
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6What else is worthy of attention, are they worthwhile?
There are always no less than dozens of projects, and we only discuss a few here.
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(1.LineaandScroll
Linea and Scroll are the last two large L2 without tokens (assuming that Base does not issue tokens), of which Scroll’s financing is US $ 80 million and a valuation of 1.8 billion US dollars.$ 725 million, valuation of $ 7 billion.Although Consensys has many other items, such as Metamask, it is certain that Linea has strong financial support.Compared with ZKSYNC and Starknet, they raised $ 458 million and US $ 282.5 million with a valuation of $ 8 billion and $ 282.5 million. Linea was at least potential stocks, which depends on the overall market heat.After a few minutes of the release, Strk reached a peak of $ 50 billion in FDV -exceeded 6 times that of its valuation -ZK was released with about $ 4.7 billion in FDV.The hacker loosely submitted a project), these are very reliable airdrops.Although the FDV released by ZKSYNC before March 2024 is considered a FUD, most of the dedicated Farmers still harvested the ZK at least thousands of dollars worth of several thousand dollars.For this reason, I think that the Farmers of Linea Pre-Surge and Scroll Pre-Marks of benefits can expect that Christmas gifts in the fourth quarter come early.If you are a latecomer, you will need a lot of funding support to catch up with the pace of others, but if you are at the same time, multiple protocols (for example, provide WRSETH/ETH liquidity on Ambient to earn Kelp, SCROLL, and Ambient).Such investment may be worth it.
LineaThe
According to the data of WhalesMarket, the current value of LXP and LXP-L is $ 0.11 and $ 0.003, respectively, which means that the general airdrops related to LXP-L are only $ 109, while the LXP-L airdrops exceeded $ 234 million.
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According to a DUNE data, most users have 1,000 to 1499 LXP, which means that most users have the value of only 137 US dollars.Less.And Linea Voyage Test Network NFT, it
The Delta version is currently priced at 0.00187 ETH (about $ 5) on Element.
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If the situation before listing is credible, ordinary Linea Farmer can only expect to get $ 251, and it may be about $ 150 after deducting the GAS fee.I personally think that due to the trauma of L2 airdrops, the situation is overwhelmed before listing. If the overall market emotions turn bullish and CT’s attitude towards the airdrop is back to the direction before March, then LXP should be at least $ 0.50.Nevertheless, I still think that most people will be disappointed with Linea, because as the project pays more and more attention to TVL, pushing the transaction is no longer as good as before.
For users who can get the same calculation with the most LXP, and have harvested more than $ 20,000 from the first Surge Point Plan, we know:
● Alpha NFT = 0.05991 ETH (about $ 151)
● The first 4.3%LXP holder = 4000 LXP (about $ 440)
● The top 1500 LXP-L holders = 3.5 million LXP-L (about $ 10,500)
● A total of $ 11091
I expect that the NFT and LXP in the 4th quarter will be more valuable when TGE. In addition, I also expect that some traceable LXP will be allocated in general activities before TGE.In any case, this is already a very good airdrop for Surge, and the APY that provides liquidity is 25%.
ScrollThe
Scroll’s data is more direct.In the WhalesMarket market (very low transaction volume), Scroll Marks is currently worth about $ 0.27, and most of them hold a wallet with 0-100 MARKS of $ 27, but this is only the first stage, so we can expect this to expect thisDigital will rise.The number of wallets holding more than 5000 MARKS is quite considerable, accounting for 16.9%, and the income is more than $ 1350.
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In addition, Scroll Canvas requires users to collect more NFT badges through traditional transactions.Although the project no longer provides a large number of token distribution for transaction -based activities, it is difficult for me to believe that the badge has nothing to do with the distribution of airdrops.Considering that the badge and the points plan are separated, they may act as the multiplication of points.
Overall, unless you are farming before you are carried out before MARKS issuance, I think there are better places to store your funds.Having said that, if the attitude of the crypto Twitter’s attitude towards the airdrop will return before March, the airdrop mining may be worth it.
(2.LRT(Liquid re -pledge tokens)
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Among the top 7 ETH liquidity re -pledge protocols, there are only two airdrops so far: Etherfi and Renzo.Although their tokens performed mediocre, they fell 60.4%and 79.7%compared to TGE, but Etherfi showed considerable strength and consolidated their position as a must -choose LRT.At the same time, Renzo’s TVL stagnated after TGE, and it started to fall sharply after a few months.This is likely to only be opened in June, which means that many Farmers can only keep their Ezeth money bags when they are decoupled in the public market.Therefore, after the “chart crime” on their Twitter, it is not surprising that there is no more new ETH inflow after TGE.
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Since the fading of the airdrop, other major LRTs have not showed a strong growth momentum, so I doubt whether there is room for benefits, although I am at Farming Kelp while Farming Linea and Scroll.
We are still waiting for EIGEN TGE, but the price before listing is $ 3.62, and most Farmers’ investment will not exceed $ 400, even if they can get 100 EIGEN.We can see that Karak and Symbiotic take the lead on TGE, but these income farming requires a lot of capital.
(3.BerachainandMonad
Finally, the two most mysterious and speculatory projects we have ever seen are: Berachain and Monad.Although in the past 6 months, the attention of the two is very high, how to perform airdrop mining is unclear, and there is no clear main online online date.Considering that they raised $ 142 million for $ 4206.9 billion and US $ 244 million, which is undoubtedly a good thing for those who get token distribution.
We started from the two less mysterious BERACHAIN that collecting countless (expensive) BERA NFT and obtaining exclusive Discord characters may be the most reward.If you don’t like trading NFT, then your best choice is to interact with all the main DAPP (BEX, Bend, BERPS, etc.) on the test network on a regular basis.A good way is to collect badge through TheHoneyJar’s task, although they are not directly associated with BERAChain.In other words, there may be no intention of the test network interaction (never forget the SUI).
Monad is essentially a fanatical belief. At least now, the only way to cultivate farming is to gain reputation in their social network because there is no test network.
7,in conclusion
Yes, the airdrop waves have died, but one day will be resurrected.
