jakiro
Source: grayscale; compile: five baht, Bit chain vision world
summary
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Although the price of Bitcoin has risen sharply, our cryptocurrency industry framework is displayed,So far this year, the performance of the entire asset category is uneven.Like the stock market, this year’s cryptocurrency return lacks breadth.
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We are glad to introduce the top 20 tokens that the gray research is concerned. This is the high potential tokens we have selected for the next quarter.These encrypted assets are selected based on the ash research team’s consideration of the upcoming catalysts, trend market themes, and specific token fundamentals.Some of our top 20 assets have high price volatility and should be regarded as high risk.
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Since the Ethereum ETP spot may be approved, we are expected to focus on the Ethereum ecosystem this quarter.
Exploring the category of encrypted assets may be challenging. This is why GrayScale created Crypto Sectors -a comprehensive framework to understand all investable assets and their basic technologies.Crypto Sectors provides investors with a roadmap that is equivalent to common tools as traditional markets, aiming to help investors better understand and control the development of crypto assets.In addition, we cooperated with FTSE Russell to develop the FTSE GrayScale cryptocurrency industry index series to measure and monitor the cryptocurrency market.[1]
GrayScale Crypto Sectors divided the digital assets into five different parts: (i) curren1).The tokens in the five crypto industries are related to unique use cases and investment -available risks.Therefore, their valuations are affected by different fundamentals and technical driving factors.
Figure 1: The encryption industry divides the digital asset market into five parts
Cryptocurrencies have increased less since this year
Since the beginning of 2024, although the price of Bitcoin has risen by about 50%, the market index (CSMI) of our crypto industry has actually fallen by about 3%(Figure 2).The assets and total CSMI in the five encrypted industries are weighted according to the square root of its market value to reduce the dominant position of Bitcoin and better represent the wider assets of the entire industry.Based on the weighted market value, CSMI increased by 30%, reflecting the significant growth of Bitcoin and its considerable share (about 60%) its total market value.Among the five market segments, the best performance is the field of currency attribute -reflecting the excellent performance of Bitcoin -and the worst performance is the field of consumers and cultural cryptocurrencies -mainly dueThe asset -related assets are weak.
Figure 2: Although Bitcoin has risen sharp
The huge return between Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market shows that this year’s increase is limited -just like the situation in the US stock market, a few large technology companies have recently dominated index returns.Using the encrypted industry framework, we can create a measure of market breadth, just like the application of other markets.For example, Chart 3 shows the “rise/decline” index, and we follow the net percentage of the increase and rise of tokens in the crypto industry every day.Then we calculate the cumulative total number for a period of time.According to this measure, the breadth of the cryptocurrency market has reached its peak in late March 2024/in early April, and has been declining since then.So far this year, despite the huge increase in Bitcoin, only about 30% of the tokens of the crypto industry have risen.
Chart 3: Since March/April, the market breadth has been declining
Relatively speaking, oneThe highlight is some assets related to artificial intelligence (AI) technology. These assets exist in the encryption department of the smart contract platform and the public undertaking and service encryption departments.[2] These protocols try to solve problems related to artificial intelligence (for example, robots and in -depth falsification, privacy, model verification), and provide resources that are vital to artificial intelligence development (such as calculation, storage, data), or artificiallyIntelligent related services provide universal platforms.YTD,Compared with a slight decline in the entire crypto market, a basket of tokens related to the encryption industry related to artificial intelligence increased by 80%(Figure 4).
Figure 4: Activities for tokens of artificial intelligence are better than big markets
In addition to artificial intelligence, market participants also pay attention to various other themes, which to a certain extent affects the relative performance of the entire encryption industry.In order to help us understand the market trend, the gray research uses the “narrative thinking share” measurement standard of data provider Kaito.These data measuring the relative frequency of social media mentioned the theme of specific encryption markets or narratives, which helps evaluate encrypted assets driven by believers and supporters community -driven by believers who often express their views on social media platforms.For example, in last month, artificial intelligence was still the dominant theme, followed by exchange trading funds (ETFs) -that is, exchange trading products (popularly known as “ETF”) approval may be short -term token catalysts -the cause of the causeCoin and blockchain -based games (Figure 5).Although the focus of the market may change, the theme is often lasting, so the measurement standard for narrative thinking share may provide clues for the market performance in the next few months.
Chart 5: Artificial intelligence is still the leading theme of the market
Looking to the future: Ethereum becomes the focus
GrayScale Research predicts,In the next quarter, the cryptocurrency market will be affected by the approval of the US spot Ethereum trading product (ETP).In late May, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the 19B-4 form documents submitted by a number of issuers to list these products in the United States.In addition, SEC Chairman Gensler recently stated that regulators may approve the remaining applications at a “certain time this summer”.[3] Therefore, although time is still uncertain, for the purpose of our market analysis, GrayScale Research assumes that these products will be traded in the third quarter of 2024.Like the spot Bitcoin ETP launched in January 2024, the gray research team also predicts that these new Ethereum products will generate meaningful net inflows (though less than Bitcoin ETP), which may support Ethereum and its internal tokens.Valuation.
The Ethereum ecosystem has several unique functions. The launch of the spot Ethereum ETP may highlight this.For example, Ethereum Network is pursuing a modular design concept, where the components of different components of blockchain infrastructure are coordinated to provide a more optimized end -in user experience and reduce costs.In addition, Ethereum is the largest decentralized finance (DEFI) ecosystem in the cryptocurrency field and the location of most tokens.
If the approval of ETP stimulates the interest and adoption of Ethereum, we may also see that the specific Layer 2 generation currency (for example, Mantle), Ethereum DEFI protocol (for example, Uniswap, Maker, AAVE)The activity and valuation support of the functional assets (for example, lido, an equity agreement) continues to increase.
In addition to the approval of the spot with the spot Ether ETP, GrayScale Research is expectedThe current market themes will continue to become the focus in the next quarter, especially the potential crosspoint between blockchain technology and artificial intelligence.One of this category of assets is Near, which is founded by the co -founder of the “Transformer” architecture. This architecture is supported by artificial intelligence systems such as ChatGPT.As far as daily active users are concerned, Near is one of the top smart contract platforms and has obtained extensive practical applications in non -financial cases.However, recently, Near began to use its artificial intelligence expertise to announce the development of “AGI owned by users” by the R & D department led by the former OPENAI research engineer consultant.[4] Render and Akash, such as the decentralized GPU market, may also benefit from the market’s sustainable preferences for AI.
Except for the main market theme, various projects seem to benefit from its own unique trend, whether due to innovative technology or integration with platforms that provide user growth space.Two famous examples are Toncoin and Pendle.The TON blockchain is an intelligent connection platform bound to the Telegram message platform. Users, transactions and expense income are significantly increasing.Pendle Finance is a relatively new DEFI protocol that allows users to customize the rate of return of its strategy.Although it is not a new trend, we also believe that due to the eye -catching user experience, the use rate of Solana network is achieving organic growth.
Finally, the crypto market may continue to distinguish the relatively low and relatively high tokens of supplying inflation.Although Bitcoin has the largest total supply and a considerable annual inflation rate, many tokens in our encryption field do not have this structure.In fact, in many cases, the circulation supply of tokens is relatively low, and the monthly or annual supply inflation is relatively large (“unlocking”).In these cases, even if a project is undergoing user adoption and revenue growth, the growth of supply may dilute the income of existing token holders.Examples include the famous Ethereum Layer 2 network, such as Arbitrum and Optimism. Although users use native currencies, the return is relatively low, which may be due to the high growth of circulation.
Introduction to gray degree research TOP 20
In order to highlight the high potential tokens of the specific cryptocurrency industry, we launched the top 20 tokens (Figure 6).We believe that the top 20 assets represent the diversified assets of the crypto industry. Due to the (i) direct catalyst or trend theme, (ii) favorable specific protocol adopts the trend. These assets have high potential in the next quarter. (III) Low or medium tokens supply inflation.Choosing these assets is to represent the recent market prospects, so it may exclude higher market value assets that have not immediately catalyzed or continuous improvement of fundamentals.We intend to update the TOP 20 list of grayscale every quarter.Some of the listed assets are highly volatility (as shown in the right column of Figure 6) and should be regarded as high -risk assets.
Figure 6: High potential assets in the third quarter of 2024
Reference
[1] FTSE gray cryptocurrency industry index series has been re -adjusted quarterly as planned on June 21.
[2] GrayScale Research believes that the tokens that may be related to AI technology are arranged as Agix, AKT, AR, FET, FIL, GLM, LPT, NEAR, Ocean, Prime, RSS3, TFUEL, TRAC, TRACAnd WLD.
[3] Source: Cointelegraph.
[4] Source: near and crunchbase.
