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Source: GrayScale Research; Compilation: Five baht, Bitchain Vision
summary
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The results of the US election may have a significant impact on the digital asset industry.The next president and Congress may formulate legislation on cryptocurrencies and may modify the tax and expenditure policies that affect a wider financial market.
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The current public opinion survey data and hidden odds from predicted markets such as Polymarket show that this is a fierce competition.[1] However, as of October 15, these data showed that the Republican Party controlled the Senate.GrayScale Research believes that, given the role of the Senate’s control of key regulatory agencies such as SEC and CFTC, in view of the Senate, the changes in the control of the Senate may be particularly related to cryptocurrencies.
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However, at the level of voters, data shows that cryptocurrencies are a problem that two parties care about. Democrats’ Bitcoin ownership rate is slightly higher than Republicans.In addition, the specific candidates between the two sides expressed their support for cryptocurrency innovation.
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Regardless of the control, GrayScale Research believes that comprehensive two -party legislation may be the best long -term solution in the US digital asset industry.
Although there are many problems in the US election in 2024, the digital asset industry has attracted some time and attention of candidates.This can be attributed to the changing preferences of voters to a certain extent: in the national survey conducted by Harris’s public opinion survey representing gray, we found thatAbout half of the potential American voters are more likely to vote for candidates interested in cryptocurrencies instead of candidates who are not interested in cryptocurrencies.The increasing attention to cryptocurrencies also reflects the fact that the formulation of US rules is behind other countries. Although the industry has continued to develop and innovate, comprehensive legislation becomes more urgent.
Below we consider the potential election scenes of the White House and Congress and its possible impact on the encryption market.For each result, we will report the implicit odds of Polymarket. Polymarket is a blockchain -based prediction market. This year’s adoption rate has increased sharply this year.
Most results are highly uncertain: public opinion survey data and forecast markets indicate that the campaign results are very different.However, these data show that the control of the Senate may seem likely to transfer (shift from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party). Considering that the Senate’s role in confirming the appointment of the president may be a special change that has a direct impact on the cryptocurrency industry.
White House
Polymarket odds: Trump 57% / Harris 43% (as of October 15, 2024)
As a result, Trump’s victory may mean that regulators will give more support, and the budget deficit will be greater. Both may bring driving force to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.However, Trump’s fiscal policy plan requires the support of Congress, and tariffs may bring market uncertainty.
The next president will formulate an agenda of cryptocurrency policy, nominate key regulatory agencies, and promote a wider economic policy decision -making of taxes, expenditures and tariffs.Former President Trump enthusiastically embraced the digital asset industry, expressed his hope to make the United States a “world cryptocurrency and bitcoin capital” [2].He also announced that he will launch a cryptocurrency lending platform called World Liberty Financial, although the details of the project are still limited.[3]
Vice President Harris recently proposed more supportive comments on digital assets, explaining that her government will “encourage innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence and digital assets while protecting our consumers and investors.”[4] According to media reports, her campaign team will also announce “protection” cryptococcering assets and formulate a plan for “a plan for the formulation of rules for cryptocurrencies and other digital assets.”[5]
However, there are fewer details provided by Harris campaign. It is worth noting that, as some market participants and commentators in the cryptocurrency industry have seen, the current Biden/Harris government has adopted confrontation with the industry supervision of the industry.Sexual methods, including a series of lawsuits, restrict access to traditional banking services and veto the legislation of the two parties.[6] Therefore,Gray research believes that the Trump administration is more likely to nominate regulatory agencies that support the innovation of the encryption industry.[7]
Specifically, the prospects of Bitcoin may also depend on the macro policy choices of the next government.The analysis of independent researchers shows thatTrump and Harris’ fiscal policy proposals will lead to greater budget deficits -although the federal deficit is quite large.[8] Before incorporating the settlement plan for the campaign, the Congress Budget Office (CBO) is expected to have an average of 6.2%of the federal deficit in the next 10 years.According to the Budon Budget Model (PWBM), the proposal proposed by Vice President Harris to expand children’s tax credits and other reforms will make the 10 -year average budget deficit reaching 6.5%28%%. [9] At the same time, PWBM analysis showed that the plan to extend the tax reduction policy in 2017 and reduce other tax rates in former President Trump will enable the 10 -year budget deficit to reach 7.8%of GDP (Figure 1).[10]
GrayScale Research believes that under other conditions, under the same conditions,In the middle period, huge budget deficits should be considered to be unfavorable to the US dollar and beneficial to Bitcoin.
Figure 1: None of the two candidates did not plan to reduce the federal deficit
However, in practice, market impact is uncertain.First of all, changes in fiscal policy must be approved by Congress. At present, it is unclear which campaign proposal can actually become a law -especially under the circumstances of government division.Secondly, former President Trump also has also raised tariffs.Turnds often increase the value of the US dollar and may put pressure on risk assets, especially if other countries take revenge.[11]Although the tariffs will not directly affect Bitcoin, the valuation of encrypted assets is related to a wider market, so the increase in tariffs may bring downward risks to prices.
Senate
Polymarket odds: Republican control 78% / Democratic control 22%
As a result, although both members of the party show some support for cryptocurrency policy, considering the key role of the Senate in confirming the appointment of the regulatory agency,Republican control may be considered a clean and positive result for cryptocurrencies.
The Senate and the House of Representatives are responsible for any changes in fiscal policy [12] and any legislation specific to cryptocurrencies.The Senate is also responsible for confirming the appointment of the President’s appointment, including the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Commodity Futures Commission (CFTC) and the Federal Reserve’s main regulatory agencies.Due to the uncertain supervision of many encrypted assets, the Senate’s supervision of the appointment of institutions may be vital to the industry.
The encrypted legislation approved by the current Congress is jointly participated in both parties, including the Digital Commodity Act of the Senate Agricultural Committee and the Stable Coin Legislative Legislative Legislative Currency of the Senate Banking Committee.[13] At the same time, Republican Senators also firmly support the digital asset industry.For example, the crypto industry lobbying group Stand with Crypto [14] gave 39 of the 49 Republican senators on the encryption issue, but only 6 of the 51 Democratic Senators.[15] In addition, the voting mode shows more Republican support: When the Senate voted to abolish the SEC Employee Accounting Announcement (SAB) 121 [16], 48 Republicans voted for votes and 12 Democrats voted for votes.
The Democratic Party currently controls the Senate, so he serves as the chairman of the key committee to determine the priority of legislation and eventually have a decisive voting right to appoint some presidents.Given that Republicans generally support digital asset innovation, GrayScale Research believes thatThe changes in the control of the Senate may be a positive result for the encryption market -considering the key role of regulators, it can be said that the industry’s most important election results.
House of Representatives
Polymarket odds: Republican control 44% / Democratic Party control 56%
As a result, the control of the House of Representatives is critical to determine whether the government is unified or divided. This will determine whether the next president can achieve its established fiscal policy goals to a certain extent, thereby determining the impact of elections on a wider financial market.
Like the Senate, the support of the House of Representatives through any financial policy changes or legislative legislations specific to cryptocurrencies.The legislation reviewed by this year is jointly reviewed by the two parties, but it has received more support from the Republican Party.For example, for the FIT21 [17] bill of the House of Representatives’ Financial Services Committee, 208 Republicans voted for votes, and 71 Democrats also voted for votes, including former Speaker Pelosi and the Democratic Party whip Krak.
The control of the House of Representatives will determine the task and legislative priority of the Committee of the House of Representatives, which may have an impact on cryptocurrency policy.But maybe the most important impact will be whether a political party can also control the two houses of the White House and the Parliament Persons ‘Persons’ Senate -the “Unified Government” -or whether the control is divided by the parties- “split the government”.Under the divided government, changes in fiscal policy may be particularly difficult to achieve.
Eight possibilities
For the upcoming US elections, three institutions play a role (White House, Senate, and House of Representatives), and each institution has two possible results (controlled by Republican or Democratic Party).Therefore, there are eight different possible scenarios, and each scene has a different impact on the digital asset industry.Chart 2 provides implicit odds in each situation of Polymarket.
Figure 2: According to market forecasts, the election is highly uncertain
Gray research will emphasize several key points.First of all, in the four more likely occurrences, no situation is obviously dominant -in other words, the power balance after the election still has high uncertainty.Secondly, observers have different governments that we will have a unified government or division: the total chance of the Democratic Party or Republican Party is still close to 50%.Third, according to Polymarket, the only specific result with considerable high odds is the Republican Party Control Senate.As long as this situation continues, given the key role of the Senate in confirming the appointment of the president, we believe that the results of the election will develop in the direction that is conducive to the cryptocurrency market.
Cryptocurrencies are a matter of common concern between the two parties
At the level of voters, cryptocurrencies are issues that two parties care about.The national survey results conducted by Harris Public Opinion Survey on behalf of GrayScale, showing thatIt is believed that the Bitcoin ownership in Democrats and the familiarity of cryptocurrencies than Republicans, and Democrats are generally more interested in cryptocurrencies this year.[18] In addition, any new encrypted legislation needs to be obtained in the Senate, so it is almost certainly required to support the support of the two parties.
Having said that, in view of the Senate played a key role in the candidate of the regulatory agency appointed by the president,GrayScale Research believes that the Republican Party’s control over the Senate is a meaningful and positive factor for the digital asset industry.therefore,The current public opinion survey and predicting market’s implicit odds currently indicate that the cryptocurrency market will have favorable results.
However, the prospects of the next government’s legislation and/or possible fiscal policy changes for cryptocurrencies in the next session are even more uncertain.GrayScale Research believes that the best result of the healthy development of the digital asset industry is that the two parties continue to promote comprehensive legislation.
Harris public opinion survey method
The survey was conducted by Harris Poll on behalf of GrayScale through its Harris On Demand comprehensive product from September 4th to 6th, 2024 to the United States to conduct an online survey of 1,841 adults (18 years and above) who planned to vote in the 2024 presidential election in 2024EssenceIf necessary, based on age, gender, race/nation, region, education, marriage status, family size, family scale, family income, employment situation, and Internet tendency to weigh the data, it meets its actual proportion in the population.The respondents of this survey were selected from those who agreed to participate in our investigation.The sampling accuracy of Harris’s online public opinion survey was measured by Bayesian trusted interval.For this study, the accuracy of the sample data is within +/-2.8 percentage points with a 95% confident level.In the concentration of interested investigations, this trusted area will be wider.All sampling surveys and public opinion surveys will be affected by other sources of other errors regardless of the probability sampling. These errors are usually not quantified or estimated, including but not limited to the coverage of coverage, errors related to non -response, and do not answer related related to the relevant.The wording and answering options of errors, and the weight and adjustment after the investigation.
Annotation
[1] Grayscale’s accuracy or reliability of public opinion survey data, as well as the hidden odds of predicted markets such as Polymarket, do not hold any position.In this article, the data of Polymarket uses grayscale to indicate the overall directionability of the potential election results.
[2] Source: “Baron Weekly”.
[3] Source: New York Times.
[4] Source: Bloomberg.
[5] Source: National Public Broadcasting Station.
[6] For example, see the Wall Street Journal, “Unchaned Crypto”, “Reuters”, “TechCrunch”, “Axios”, “Reuters”.
[7] In terms of supervision, former President Trump once said, “The rules will be formulated by those who love you rather than hate your industry.” Source: CNBC.
[8] This statement in the Congress Budget Office summarizes the current budget: “During the 10 -year prediction period, the basic deficit of the Congress budget office accounted for 2.5%of the GDP. From 62 years from 1947 to 2008, the basic deficit was basically deficit.It only exceeded 2.5%of GDP twice.Source: Congress Budget Office.
[9] PWBM is estimated to be based on the primary (before interest) deficit; before the campaign proposes to calculate the total deficit effect, the gray degree is included in the estimation of interest expenses on interest expenses in the Congress budget office.Estimation of the influence of the budget of the campaign proposal vary from the source, the numbers provided here should be considered explanatory.For other estimates, see the responsible federal budget committee.
[10] PWBM’s estimation on Trump’s proposal does not include the potential impact of tariffs on customs revenue.However, it does include the forecast of tariff income, such as the prediction of the responsible federal budget committee, and it is found that the net impact on the deficit is roughly comparable.If the Trump tariff plan remains unchanged, it is estimated that the impact on revenue during the decade is about 2 trillion to 5 trillion US dollars.Source: Responsible Federal Budget Commission, Tax Policy Center, Tax Foundation.
[11] Various studies have discussed the impact of increasing tariffs on the US dollar.For example, please refer to the extent of the multi -faceted impact and tariffs on the US trade policy on the financial market.For the impact on risk assets, please refer to the “Impact of the Sino -US trade war on the US investment”.
[12] Change tariffs do not require Congress approval.
[13] The specific bill includes the “2022 Digital Commodity Consumer Protection Act” (S.4760) and “Lummis-Gillibrand Payment Stable Coin Act” (S.4155).
[14] Stand with Crypto Alliance is a 501 (C) (4) non -profit organization funded by donation.GrayScale does not take any position on the accuracy or reliability of The Stand with Crypto Alliance data.In this article, the ash uses data from the Cryptocurrency Alliance’s position to show the overall direction of Congress’s position in cryptocurrency policy.
[15] Independent senators who calculate the Democratic Party and Youth League Conference.
[16] SAB 121 is a financial guide that requires the company to report the cryptocurrency report held by customers as assets and liabilities, affecting their ways to manage cryptocurrency custody services.
[17] The 21st Century Financial Innovation and Technical Act (H.R.4763).
[18] In the three rounds of polls, 18% of the Democrats said they had Bitcoin, and the proportion of Republicans was 15%.Similarly, 51% of Democrats said they were “very familiar” or “a little familiar” with cryptocurrencies, while Republicans were 45%.Finally, in the third wave of polls (September 4th to 6th, 2024), 37% of the Democrats said that their attitude towards more about cryptocurrency investment has become more open this year, and Republicans’ this this yearOne ratio is 30%.Source: Harris polls.
