jakiro
Author: zhou
In the past month,DOGE,XRP,Solana(SOL),Litecoin(LTC) andHedera(HBAR),Chainlink(LINK) and a series of emerging encryption projects.ETFhave been approved for listing one after another. Contrary to the general market expectations, the prices of these assets have not changed due toETFThe phenomenon of soaring due to the listing of the currency, and the continued inflow of funds, but the sharp correction of currency prices, triggered thinking:ETFCan the approval of the currency still form long-term effective support for the currency price?
Currency prices are under pressure: short-term sentiment and speculative purging
in10To the end of the month11During the month, the market welcomed emerging crypto assetsETFintensive listing.But according toSoSoValueThe data shows that the decoupling of continued capital inflows and plummeting prices is widespread across these assets:
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Solana (SOL): Since its listing at the end of October, the SOL ETF has recorded net inflows for four consecutive weeks, and its total net assets have now reached US$918 million, of which Bitwise and Grayscale ETFs contributed US$631 million and US$148 million respectively.However, the spot price of SOL has dropped from about $184 on October 31 to about $143 today, a drop of more than 20%.
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XRP: The first XRP ETF was launched on November 13, with a trading volume of $59.22 million on the first day, and continuous net inflows began the next day.However, the XRP spot price once fell by more than 20% from $2.38 on November 13, and currently remains around $2.2.
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HBAR: The HBAR ETF posted its fifth consecutive week of net inflows after listing on October 28, with total net assets reaching $65.49 million, but HBAR spot prices fell nearly 20%.
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DOGE: The DOGE ETF had no net inflows on its first day of listing on November 24, with a transaction volume of US$1.41 million. The total net assets of the two DOGE spot ETFs currently listed are US$6.48 million, and there has been no significant fluctuation in the price of DOGE currency.
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LTC: The LTC spot ETF was listed on November 5 and currently has a total cumulative net inflow of US$7.26 million. However, in the past month, there have been multiple single-day net inflows of 0.Affected by this, LTC prices have fallen by approximately 14% since the launch of the Canary LTC Spot ETF on October 28.
Can be found in addition to LitecoinETFIn addition, other currenciesETFAll of them showed continued capital inflow, but the currency prices fell into decline or consolidation without exception.
The reason for this decoupling may come from the superimposed effect of macro factors and speculation.
First, it must be acknowledgedETFDuring the period of approval, the overall environment of the crypto market was not in a high bullish mood.The performance of core assets confirms this:BitcoinETFin11monthly net outflow34.8billion dollars, EthereumETFnet outflow14.2billion US dollars.Huge outflows of core assets have created strong overall negative sentiment and macro headwinds, drowning emerging marketsETFincremental benefits.In this environment, the behavior of “buying expectations and selling facts” causes speculators to focus on selling to make profits when the good news materializes, forming short-term selling pressure.
Secondly, during the market decline,Selling sentiment amplified in relatively illiquid altcoins.Compared to Bitcoin,XRP,SOLThe market depth of other currencies is shallow and the ability to undertake selling is limited.At the same time, the current speed of capital inflow is relatively slow, and institutions are still in the observation period. Its gradual allocation speed cannot immediately offset the concentrated selling pressure of giant whales and speculative disks.
In short,capital inflowETFThe short-term decoupling from currency prices is the result of speculative purging, macro headwinds, and the lag in the deployment of institutional funds..However, this does not mean that the benefits are invalid, but it reminds investors thatETFThe value must be found from a longer-term perspective and from the configuration structure of the organization.
Long-term value: Institutional allocation and continued influx of capital
Since the short-term currency price performance is interfered by external factors, thenETFThe value of needs to be examined from two core dimensions:The persistence of institutional capital inflows and the differentiated competitive advantages of the assets themselves.
This value is first reflected in the change in attitude of traditional financial giants.One of the world’s largest asset management companies that has previously been conservative on crypto assets——Vanguard Group(Vanguard Group)Announcing the Opening of BitcoinETFtransaction.For years, its executives have argued that cryptocurrencies lack intrinsic value: they neither generate cash flow nor are suitable for long-term retirement strategies.They view digital assets as a speculative vehicle rather than a core investment portfolio.The company is in BitcoinETFat2024year1It rejected these products after they were launched in March and even restricted customers from buying rival funds.
Vanguard Now Allows Investors to Trade BlackRock’s Bitcoin SpotETF, whose role changed from a critic to a distributor.This moveundoubtedly revealed to the marketETFAs a compliant investment tool, it has broken the last major barrier in the traditional financial world.
Facts have proved that despite the plummeting prices, institutions’ willingness to allocate assets remains firm.For example,SOL ETF, HBAR ETFThere have been net inflows for five consecutive weeks;Canary XRP ETFThe total net asset value has reached3.55billion dollars,Bitwiseand grayscaleETFNet assets are approximately US$200 million.This continuous and huge accumulation of funds is a measure ofETFKey indicators that are positive for the long term.Analysts estimate that altcoins will dwarf even Bitcoin in sizeETFArrive2026May still bring about mid-year100Yizhi200million dollars in capital inflows.
In the organization configuration strategy,Differentiated competitive advantages of assetsIt is also a key.For example,Solanaof pledgeETFProvide up to7%the rate of return,XRPProducts such as payout funds may be of particular interest to investors seeking diversification or passive income.Grayscale Research DirectorZach Pandlonce said,Solana ETFIn the next one to two years, it is likely to absorb at least5%ofSolanaTotal token supply.
However, this optimism is being strongly challenged by market giants.BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management giant (BlackRock) versus altcoinsETFBe highly cautious and negative.Head of Digital Assets at BlackRockRobert MitchnickSaying that most altcoins are worthless and emphasizing the risks of investing in a wide variety of immature digital assets, they focus on mature cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.BloombergETFanalystEric Balchunasalso supports this view, arguing that this stance explains BlackRock’s reluctance to diversify its portfolio.
This cautious stance brings potential risks.K33 ResearchSays inflow into altcoins without BlackRock’s involvementETFTotal funding may be reduced50%to70%.At the same time,CryptoQuantThe CEO warned that altcoin liquidity is declining rapidly and only those able to open new liquidity channels (especially throughETF) projects can survive in the market.
In addition,LTCSpotETF’s experience is the most obvious negative teaching material.Since its listing, the net inflow in a single day for multiple consecutive working days has been0.One of the largest digital asset management companies in EuropeCoinSharesalso formally withdrew itsSECsubmittedXRP,Solana StakingandLitecoin ETFApply, which proves that even large asset management companies will face fierce competition and limited profits on a single asset.ETFStay alert.
CoinSharesCEOJean-Marie MognettiSaid that in view of the traditional financial giants’ investment in single asset encryptionETFmarket dominance, the company will be in the future12-18Reallocate resources to more innovative and profitable products within months.
Conclusion
The differentiation of institutions just confirms that crypto assetsETFThe era is entering a layered configuration stage.On one side, Vanguard Group opens up BitcoinETFtrading, symbolizing mainstream finance’s final acceptance of the crypto market; on the other side isCoinSharesThe withdrawal of the application and BlackRock’s cautious attitude towards altcoins show that institutions are wary of the quality of underlying assets and competition on the track.
In general,ETFApproval is undoubtedly an important benefit in nature and in the long term. The short-term decline in currency prices does not mean that the benefit has expired, but that the method of redemption has been distorted by short-term market forces.
